Posts by Gary Hall

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up +0.15% +48 points,
• Nasdaq closed down -2.35%,
• S&P 500 closed down -0.81%,
• WTI crude oil settled at 110, down 0.72%,
• USD $101.75 down 0.34%,
• Gold 1866 up 0.02%,
• Bitcoin up 0.27% to $29331,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury down 0.098% / 2.761%

 

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Richmond Fed reported that their 5th district manufacturing index declined – and fell into recession territory going from an index value of 14 in April to -9 in May 2022.

New Home Residential Sales significantly declined in April 2022 to the lowest level since the COVID lockdown / recession. This should be considered a potential recessionary marker.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Stocks Will Sink Further, Economist Rosenberg Says
• Gasoline Prices Are Set To Spike This Week
• Best Buy says softer demand is sticking around, but the company isn’t planning for a recession
• Big-Tech & Bond Yields Plunge As US Macro ‘Snaps’, Gold Gains
• Dalio: “Cash Is Still Trash… But Equities Are Trashier”, Prefers Gold & Bitcoin

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up +1.98% +618 points,
• Nasdaq closed up +1.59%,
• S&P 500 closed up +1.86%,
• WTI crude oil settled at 111, up 0.11%,
• USD $102.09 down 0.83%,
• Gold 1853 down 0.16%,
• Bitcoin down 1.51% to $29144,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury up 0.079% / 2.868%

Today’s Economic Releases:

The super coincident Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) continues to show strong growth in April 2022. The trend lines continue well above the economy’s historical trend (average) rate of growth.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• The Bears Are Back In Metals Markets
• Starbucks will exit Russia after 15 years, closing 130 licensed cafes
• Monkeypox outbreak is primarily spreading through sex, WHO officials say
• Bank of America CEO says Americans still haven’t spent all their stimulus money

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed flat +0.03% +8.77 points,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.30%,
• S&P 500 closed flat +0.01%,
• WTI crude oil settled at 110.64, down 0.88%,
• USD $103.07 up 0.20%,
• Gold 1844 up 0.02%,
• Bitcoin up 0.99% to $29271,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury down 0.067% / 2.787%

Today’s Economic Releases:

None

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Oil Prices Under Pressure As China Considers Russian Crude
• Russian Oil Revenues Soar Despite Sanctions
• Kohl’s says final sale bids expected in coming weeks; retailer slashes full-year outlook after earnings miss
• Dow Suffers Longest Losing Streak In 99 Years, Bonds & Bullion Bid
• Ross Stores shares sink as lower-income shoppers feel the squeeze of inflation

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 0.75% -237 points,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.26%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.58%,
• WTI crude oil settled at 111.22, up 1.82%,
• USD $102.81 down 1.05%,
• Gold 1842 down 0.03%,
• Bitcoin down 0.13% to $30048,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury down 0.031% / 2.853%

Today’s Economic Releases:

Philadelphia Fed’s May 2022 Manufacturing Index remained in expansion but fell to the lowest level in two years.

According to executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc., the rate of job seekers who started their own businesses in the first quarter of 2022 hit the highest rate since the first quarter of 2019.

For week ending 14 May 2022, the 4 week rolling average for initial unemployment claims continues to modestly worsen.

April 2022 existing home sales declined for the third straight month – and down 5.9% from one year ago. Per Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist:

Higher home prices and sharply higher mortgage rates have reduced buyer activity. It looks like more declines are imminent in the upcoming months, and we’ll likely return to the pre-pandemic home sales activity after the remarkable surge over the past two years.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Here’s what Walmart, Target, Home Depot and Lowe’s tell us about the state of the American consumer
• Earth’s oceans have reached the hottest and most acidic levels on record, UN says
• Gas prices have now topped $4 in ALL 50 STATES for the first time in history
• Gas prices just hit a new record high. Here are a few ways to cut down the cost
• Bitcoin, Bonds, & Bullion Jump As Dollar Dumps After Dismal Data
• Goldman Is Quietly Handing Out A “Recession Manual” To Clients

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 3.57% +1,165 points,
• Nasdaq closed down 4.73%,
• S&P 500 closed down 4.04%,
• WTI crude oil settled at 109.28, down 3.79%,
• USD $103.85 down 0.54%,
• Gold 1816 flat 0.00%,
• Bitcoin up 0.20% to $29242,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury down 0.081% / 2.889%

Today’s Economic Releases

The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) increased for the first time since December 2021. The authors of this index believe there is “potential for heightened geopolitical tensions to stoke supply chain pressures in the near term.”

April 2022 new residential construction starts declined according to US Census. However, year-over-year growth improved from last month.

“Many companies are making changes at the top to address rising costs for both business and consumers,” said Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

It should come as no surprise that the NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index declined to the lowest level since the COVID recession.

At the Ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles, April 2022 imports continue to run at a near record pace (year-over-year) whilst exports declined 7% year-over-year. Generally speaking, a recession is unlikely when imports are in expansion year-over-year.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Gasoline Prices Top $6 In California, $9 In Parts Of Europe
• Here’s what Walmart, Target, Home Depot, and Lowe’s tell us about the state of the American consumer
• Target shares sink 25% after company says high costs, inventory woes hit profits
• Stocks & Bond Yields Crater As The ‘American Consumer Is Strong’ Narrative Implodes
• The Fed: Fed will keep raising interest rates until it is ‘confident’ inflation is moving down, Harker says

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 1.34% +431 points,
• Nasdaq closed up 2.76%,
• S&P 500 closed up 2.02%,
• WTI crude oil settled at 112.04, down 1.62%,
• USD $103.31 down 0.85%,
• Gold 1815 flat 0.00%,
• Bitcoin up 0.88% to $30,730,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury up 0.105% / 2.984%

Today’s Economic Releases

Retail sales continue at blockbuster rates according to US Census data. The April 2022 data shows year-over-year sales increased 6.7%. HOWEVER, when adjusted for inflation (as shown in FRED’s series RRSFS), this is the second month in a row that retail sales have declined year-over-year.

According to the Federal Reserve, April 2022 industrial production data continues to grow following the COVID recession of early 2020.

CoreLogic’s Loan Performance report for February 2022 shows loan delinquencies continued to decline relative to the period one year ago.

“Consumer confidence fell slightly in April, after a modest increase in March,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Steel Demand Is Taking A Beating As China Lockdowns Persist
• Walmart shares fall as higher costs, supply chain problems and inventories eat into profits
• United Airlines says FAA has cleared 52 Boeing 777s to fly again after they were grounded for engine failure
• JPMorgan Sees Gas Prices Hitting $6.20 By August
• The Margin: Free rapid at-home COVID tests: You can order a third round from the federal government

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Summary Of the Markets Today

• The Dow closed up 0.08% +27 points,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.20%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.39%,
• WTI crude oil settled at 114.87, up 3.72%,
• USD $104.22 down 0.32%,
• Gold 1826,10 down 0.28%,
• Bitcoin down 1.24% to $29,536,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury down 0.51% / 2.882%

Today’s Economic Releases

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey, which measures the manufacturer’s OPINION of business conditions in New York State, returned to negative territory which is normally associated with recessions.

CoreLogic’s Q1 2022 Quarterly Mortgage Fraud Index was little changed compared to Q4 2021 – however fraud risk is up 15% compared to the same quarter one year ago.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Oil Prices Surge Past $113 As Shanghai Signals End Of Lockdown
• A severe pilot shortage in the U.S. leaves airlines scrambling for solutions
• Inflation is the ‘top problem’ facing America, with no other issue coming close, survey shows
• Morgan Stanley Sees S&P Tumbling As Low As 3,400: “That’s Where Valuation And Technical Support Lie”
• The Margin: Who is Karine Jean-Pierre, the new White House press secretary making history Monday?

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Summary Of the Markets Today

• The Dow closed up 1.47% / +466,
• Nasdaq closed up 3.82%,
• S&P 500 closed up 2.39%,
• WTI crude oil settled at 110.30, up 3.45%
• USD $104.59 down 0.16%
• Gold 1809,03 down 0.36%,
• Bitcoin up 3.6% to $29,992,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury up 0.12% / 2.937%
• Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 13/MAY from 557 to 563

Today’s Economic Releases

The Philadelphia Fed’s Second Quarter 2022 Survey of Professional Forecasters now predicts the economic outlook is weaker. 2022 GDP annual growth is now forecast at 2.5% – down from the 3.7% forecast just three months ago.

Median Forecasts for Selected Variables in the Current and Previous Surveys

	REAL GDP (%)		UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)		PAYROLLS (000S/MONTH)
	PREVIOUS	NEW	PREVIOUS	NEW	PREVIOUS	NEW
Annual data (projections are based on annual-average levels):
2022	3.7	2.5	3.7	3.6	430.9	479.7
2023	2.7	2.3	3.4	3.6	197.2	172.7
2024	2.3	2.0	3.6	3.8	N.A.	N.A.
2025	2.3	2.3	3.7	3.8	N.A.	N.A.

 

These same forecasters now forecast higher inflation. Can you believe that only three months ago – 2022 inflation was forecast the 3.8%?

Median Short-Run and Long-Run Projections for Inflation (Annualized Percentage Points)

	HEADLINE CPI		CORE CPI		HEADLINE PCE		CORE PCE
	PREVIOUS	CURRENT	PREVIOUS	CURRENT	PREVIOUS	CURRENT	PREVIOUS	CURRENT
Quarterly
Q4/Q4 Annual Averages
2022	3.8	6.1	3.6	4.8	3.1	5.0	3.1	4.1
2023	2.4	2.9	2.5	2.9	2.2	2.5	2.2	2.5
2024	2.3	2.3	2.4	2.5	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.2

U.S. IMPORT AND EXPORT PRICE INDEXES – APRIL 2022 – Year-over-year inflation moderated from 13.0% to 12.0%.

Student Debt Relief – A Philadelphia Fed Study found “most respondents without education debt preferred no, or relatively limited, cancellation of federal education debt (e.g., $10,000 or less per borrower). In comparison, those with education debt overwhelmingly (86 percent) preferred some debt relief. However, even among this group, there did not appear to be widespread support for canceling most or all education debt. A majority of respondents, with or without education debt, felt that any debt relief provided should be targeted.”

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Oil Prices Climb Despite Demand Destruction Claims
• Russia To Halt Electricity Exports To Finland On Saturday
• U.S. Rig Count Continues To Rise As WTI Hits $110
• Twitter CEO “Expects Deal To Close” After Musk Chaos
• Cryptocurrencies melt down in a ‘perfect storm’ of fear and panic
• Market Snapshot: Stocks trade sharply higher as S&P 500 fights off bear-market slide; Twitter drops after Musk tweet

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Summary Of the Markets Today

• The Dow closed down 0.3%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.1%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.1%,
• WTI crude oil up $1.12 to $106.83,
• USD $104.81. up 1.0%,
• Gold down $30.50 to $1,823,
• Bitcoin down 1.5% to $28,558,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury down -0.04% to 2.871%

Today’s Economic Releases

For the week ending 07 May 2022, initial unemployment claims continue to modestly increase.

The Producer Price Index’s final demand year-over-year growth modestly declined from 11.5% to 11.0% (similar to the decline seen in the CPI).

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• A Global Energy Shortage Is Putting Bitcoin Under Pressure
• Russia Could Cut Gas Supplies To Finland Tomorrow
• A Ban On Excessive Gasoline Prices Heading To Congress For Vote
• Gold And Silver Fall As Rising Interest Rates Dampen Sentiment
• U.S. airline bookings dropped 17% in April as flights got even more expensive
• Secret Royalty Checks To Fauci, Hundreds Of NIH Scientists

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Summary Of the Markets Today

• The Dow closed down 1.02% -327,
• Nasdaq closed down 3.18%,
• S&P 500 closed down 1.65%,
• WTI crude oil settled at 105.33, up 6.03%
• USD $103. up 0.02%
• Gold 1854, up 0.02%,
• Bitcoin down 2.5% to $29,113,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury down -0.07% / 2.923%

Today’s Economic Releases

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 2022 shows year-over-year inflation moderated from 8.5% to 8.3%.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Kyiv Halts Russian Gas Shipments Through Key Hub
• Southwest is upgrading its planes with faster Wi-Fi, bigger overhead bins and new drinks to woo travelers
• Toyota warns ‘unprecedented’ raw materials costs could cut profits by 20%
• Major Trucking Firms Prepare For “Imminent Diesel Shortage In Eastern Half Of US”
• Does the cryptocurrency crash pose a threat to the financial system?
• Market Extra: What’s next for markets after inflation data fails to deliver ‘watershed moment’

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.