Posts by Gary Hall

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 529 points or 1.58%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.26%,
• S&P 500 up 1.43%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $73 up $2.39,
• USD $104.97 up $0.20,
• Gold $1792 down $19.30,
• Bitcoin $17,153 up 0.18% – Session Low 16,890,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.613% up 0.046%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the November 2022 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that inflation expectations decreased in November at the short, medium, and longer terms. Home price growth expectations continued to decline. Labor market expectations strengthened, while household income growth expectations increased to a new series high. Median inflation expectations decreased at both the one- and three-year-ahead horizons in November to 5.2% and 3.0% respectively.

Per the monthly Treasury Statement issued by US Treasury, November has been a deficit month 68 times out of 69 fiscal years since there are no major tax due dates in this month.  The deficit in November 2022 was $249 billion.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 305 points or 0.90%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.70%,
• S&P 500 down 0.73%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $71 down $0.06,
• USD $104.97 up $0.20,
• Gold $1808 up $6.10,
• Bitcoin $17,105 down 0.50% – Session Low 17,098,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.575% up 0.83%
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -4 to 780 Canada + 7 to 202

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Producer Price Index for final demand moderated to 7.4% for the 12 months ended in November. One would expect the Consumer Price Index to come in next week around the same level.

October 2022 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were up 11.9% from the revised October 2021 level. Total inventories were up 21.9% from the revised October 2021 level. The October inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers was 1.32. The October 2021 ratio was 1.21. Sales to inventory ratio is the proper way to look at wholesale trade as it does not need to be adjusted for inflation. A rising ration normally signals a slowing economy.

CoreLogic today released the Homeowner Equity Report (HER) for the third quarter of 2022. The report shows that U.S. homeowners with mortgages (which account for roughly 63% of all properties) saw equity increase by 15.8% year over year, representing a collective gain of $2.2 trillion, for an average of $34,300 per borrower, since the third quarter of 2021. Annual home equity gains began to slow in the third quarter of 2022, with the average borrower netting $34,300, compared with the nearly $60,000 year-over-year gain recorded in the second quarter.

The University of Michigan Preliminary consumer sentiment for December 2022 rose 4% above November, recovering most of the losses from November but remaining low from a historical perspective. All components of the index lifted, with one-year business conditions surging 14% and long-term business conditions increasing a more modest 6%.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 184 points or 0.54%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.13%,
• S&P 500 up 0.75%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $71 down $0.59,
• USD $105.13 down $0.44,
• Gold $1800 up $2.10,
• Bitcoin $17,203 up 2.25% – Session Low 16,797,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.487% up 0.81%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022

Today’s Economic Releases:

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The Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker is a measure of the nominal wage growth of individuals. It was 6.4 percent in November, the same as in October. For people who changed jobs, the Tracker in November was 8.1 percent, compared to 7.6 percent in October. For those not changing jobs, the Tracker was 5.5 percent, similar to the 5.4 percent reading in October.

In the week ending December 3, the advance figure for unemployment insurance weekly claims 4-week moving average was 230,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 228,750 to 229,000.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 1.58 points or 0.00%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.51%,
• S&P 500 down 0.19%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $72 down $1.92,
• USD $105.13 down $0.44,
• Gold $1800 up $17.50,
• Bitcoin $16,832 down 0.94% – Session Low 16,755,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.413% down 0.10%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022

Today’s Economic Releases:

3Q2022 nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased 1.3% year-over-year (blue line on the graph below) while labor costs increased 5.3% (red line on the graph below) year-over-year.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 351 points or 1.03%,
• Nasdaq closed down 2.00%,
• S&P 500 down 1.44%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $74 down $2.52,
• USD $105.55 up $0.26,
• Gold $1784 up $2.40,
• Bitcoin $16,992 up 0.23% – Session Low 16,926,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.519% down 0.08%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022

Today’s Economic Releases:

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $78.2 billion in October 2022, up $4.0 billion from $74.1 billion in September, revised. The October increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $6.1 billion to $99.6 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $2.1 billion to $21.4 billion.

Home prices nationwide increased year over year by 10.1% in October 2022 compared with October 2021. On a month-over-month basis, home prices declined by 0.1% in October 2022 compared with September 2022. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase on a month-over-month basis by 0.0% from October 2022 to November 2022 and on a year-over-year basis by 4.1% from October 2022 to October 2023.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 483 points or 1.40%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.93%,
• S&P 500 down 1.79%,
• WTI crude oil settled at 77 down $2.67,
• USD $105.32 uo $0.78,
• Gold 1780 down $29.70,
• Bitcoin $16,945 down 1.45% – Session Low 16,895,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.588% up 0.085%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022

Today’s Economic Releases:

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New orders for manufactured goods in October 2022, up twelve of the last thirteen months, increased by 1.0%, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. In perspective, inflation-adjusted sales (red line on the graph below) – continue in contraction year-over-year.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 35 points or 0.10%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.18%,
• S&P 500 down 0.12%,
• WTI crude oil settled at 80 down $0.98,
• USD $104.56 down $0.16,
• Gold $1812 down $2.80,
• Bitcoin $17,006 up 0.57% – Session Low 16,861,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.492% down 0.035%
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. unchanged at 784 Canada +1 to 195

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022

Today’s Economic Releases:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in November, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7% according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The biggest job gains were in leisure and hospitality, health care, and government. Employment declined in retail trade and in transportation and warehousing. The BLS reduced the workforce by 186,000. It was interesting that the household survey reduced the number employed by 138,000 – and contrast that with the establishment survey which produces the headline number growth of 263,000. 263,000 is more than a satisfactory employment growth number but I believe there are warning signs in the data – especially in temporary help which fell 17,200 which is a bellwether number indicating softening of the labor market. The graph below compare the ADP growth numbers (blue line) to today’s BLS numbers (red line). From the graph, one can see the continued moderation of employment growth during 2022.

As pandemic concerns recede to probably their lowest point since lockdowns began in early 2020, companies are ready to celebrate in-person with their teams. According to new survey results from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc., 56.9% of companies report they are having in-person holiday parties this year, up from 26.6% who reported this last year and just 5.3% who held in-person parties in 2020.  Another nearly 2% will hold virtual events this year, down from 7% in 2021 and 17% in 2020. Nearly 6% of companies reported they held in-person gatherings outside, during warm weather this year in lieu of holding year-end celebrations.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 193 points or 0.56%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.13%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.08%,
• Gold $1817 up $57.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $81 up $0.81,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.508% down 0.193%,
• USD index $104.72 down $1.23,
• Bitcoin $16,913 down $260.80

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022

Today’s Economic Releases:

Small businesses reporting labor quality as their top small business operating problem remains elevated at 21%, according to NFIB’s monthly jobs report. Nine percent of owners reported labor cost as their single most important problem, down one point from October.

U.S.-based employers announced 76,835 cuts in November, a 127% increase from the 33,843 cuts announced in October. It is 417% higher than the 14,875 cuts announced in the same month last year. The bulk of the job cuts were in the tech sector.

Disposable personal income (DPI) increased by 0.7% and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased by 0.8%. The PCE price index increased by 0.3%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased by 0.2%. Year-over-year growth shows income is down 4.9% year-over-year (blue line on the graph below whilst expenditures is up 2.1% year-over-year (red line on the graph below).

Construction spending during October 2022 was estimated at 9.2% above the October 2021. Unfortunately, inflation in this sector is significant and the year-over-year growth is -8.7% (see graph below).

In the week ending November 26, the unemployment insurance weekly claims 4-week moving average was 228,750, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 226,750 to 227,000. Claims have stayed relatively stable throughout 2022.

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in November for the first time since May 2020 after 29 consecutive months of growth, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business. “The November Manufacturing PMI registered 49%, 1.2 percentage points lower than the 50.2% recorded in October. The Manufacturing PMI figure is the lowest since May 2020.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 737 points or 2.18%,
• Nasdaq closed up 4.41%,
• S&P 500 closed up 3.09%,
• Gold $1784 up $20.40,
• WTI crude oil settled at $81 up $2.42,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.639% down 0.108%,
• USD index $106.03 down $0.79,
• Bitcoin $17,049 up $613

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022

Today’s Economic Releases:

Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell awaited speech on the direction of FOMC federal funds rate increases is summarized in his speech conclusion:

Monetary policy affects the economy and inflation with uncertain lags, and the full effects of our rapid tightening so far are yet to be felt. Thus, it makes sense to moderate the pace of our rate increases as we approach the level of restraint that will be sufficient to bring inflation down. The time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting. Given our progress in tightening policy, the timing of that moderation is far less significant than the questions of how much further we will need to raise rates to control inflation, and the length of time it will be necessary to hold policy at a restrictive level. It is likely that restoring price stability will require holding policy at a restrictive level for some time. History cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy. We will stay the course until the job is done.

According to the Federal Reserve’s 30 November 2022 Beige Book, economic activity was about flat or up slightly since the previous report, down from the modest average pace of growth in the prior Beige Book period. Five Districts reported slight or modest gains in activity, and the rest experienced either no change or slight-to-modest declines. Interest rates and inflation continued to weigh on activity, and many contacts expressed greater uncertainty or increased pessimism concerning the outlook.

The second estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 3Q2022 showed 2.9% quarter-over-quarter growth.  In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was estimated at 2.6%. The second estimate primarily reflected upward revisions to consumer spending and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased more than previously estimated (refer to “Updates to GDP”). Please note that comparing 3Q2021 to 3Q2022 (year-over-year) the real GDP growth was 1.9%.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 3 points or 0.01%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.59%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.16%,
• Gold $1747 up $6.80,
• WTI crude oil settled at $78 up $1.19,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.757% uo 0.057%,
• USD index $106.85 up $0.17,
• Bitcoin $16,479 up $273.00

Today’s Economic Releases:

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite posted a 10.4% year-over-year gain, down from 13.1% in the previous month. CoreLogic Deputy Chief Economist Selma Hepp said:

In September, the CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index gains continued to quickly approach single digits, posting a 10.6% year-over-year increase — marking the sixth straight month of decelerating annual home price growth and the slowest since December 2020. Compared to the 2022 spring peak, home prices are down 3% nationally, with over 10% declines in San Francisco and Seattle. Historically, home prices have increased by about 1% from spring to September. Housing markets continue to face a loss of consumer confidence and the ongoing standoff between buyers and sellers. Potential buyers are held back by the rapidly rising cost of homeownership and fears of price declines. At the same time, potential sellers continue to contend with the lock-in effect of notably lower mortgage rates than the current market rates, which financially disincentivizes them from moving. For the remainder of the year, housing market activity will continue to be depressed, both due to seasonality and fall’s vast surge in mortgage rates, which will keep the home price growth rate moving closer to low single digits.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index decreased in November after also losing ground in October. Said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board:

Consumer confidence declined again in November, most likely prompted by the recent rise in gas prices. The Present Situation Index moderated further and continues to suggest the economy has lost momentum as the year winds down. Consumers’ expectations regarding the short-term outlook remained gloomy. Inflation expectations increased to their highest level since July, with both gas and food prices as the main culprits. Intentions to purchase homes, automobiles, and big-ticket appliances all cooled. The combination of inflation and interest rate hikes will continue to pose challenges to confidence and economic growth into early 2023.

A summary of headlines we are reading today: