Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 70 points or 0.19%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.58%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.39%,
• Gold $2,044 up $7.70,
• WTI crude oil settled at $69 down $3.02,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.121% down 0.050 points,
• USD Index $104.19 up $0.140,
• Bitcoin $43,841 up $89 ( 0.20% )

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2023 Economic Forecast: Economy Is Likely To Decelerate

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Private sector employment increased by 103,000 jobs in November 2023 and annual pay was up 5.6 percent year-over-year, according to the November ADP® National Employment Report. This increase is relatively weak and is lower than the gains necessary for new entrants to the workforce. The graph below compares ADP with BLS jobs growth. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP stated:

Restaurants and hotels were the biggest job creators during the post-pandemic recovery. But that boost is behind us, and the return to trend in leisure and hospitality suggests the economy as a whole will see more moderate hiring and wage growth in 2024.

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.4% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2023, whilst unit labor costs are up 1.6% year-over-year. These are revised numbers.

Inflation-adjusted October 2023 exports were up 6.2% year-over-year whilst imports were down 1.2% year-over-year. The trade deficit is improving and was down 18.0% year-over-year.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• What’s Holding BackThe Battery Storage Boom In Europe?
• Crude Oil Tanks Nearly 4% as US Output Overshadows OPEC
• World Report Shows Nuclear Energy Production Fell by 4% Last Year
• Oil Falls on Mixed Inventory Changes in Crude, Fuels
• U.S. Gasoline Prices Fall to 11-Month Low
• Jamie Dimon lashes out against crypto: ‘If I was the government, I’d close it down’
• Dow, S&P 500 slide for a third straight day as recent rally falters: Live updates
• Here’s what chart analysts say about bitcoin’s path from here to $50,000
• Google launches its largest and ‘most capable’ AI model, Gemini

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 80 points or 0.22%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.31%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.06%,
• Gold $2037 down $5.10,
• WTI crude oil settled at $72 down $0.67,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.178% down 0.108 points,
• USD index $103.96 up $0.25,
• Bitcoin $43,749 up $2,001

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2023 Economic Forecast: Economy Is Likely To Decelerate

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

U.S. single-family home prices increased by 4.7% year over year in September, the 141^st straight month of annual appreciation. CoreLogic projects that annual home price growth will relax to 2.9% by October 2024.

The number of job openings decreased to 8.7 million on the last business day of October 2023. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations changed little at 5.9 million and 5.6 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.6 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) changed little. Generally speaking, as the number of job openings decline – so does employment gains. So one would logically expect lower employment gains this week as the BLS releases its November employment data.

In November 2023, the Services PMI^® registered 52.7 percent, 0.9 percentage point higher than October’s reading of 51.8 percent. The Business Activity Index registered 55.1 percent; a 1-percentage point increase compared to the reading of 54.1 percent in October. A reading below 55% indicates a weak economy.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• What Peak Demand for Fossil Fuels Will Look Like
• New Technology May Reduce Battery Fires
• Tesla Set To Break Deliveries Record In China
• European Commission To Delay EV Tariffs By Years
• Green Energy Giants to Invest $16 Billion in Offshore Wind and Hydrogen
• Elon Musk’s AI startup — X.AI — files to raise $1 billion in fresh capital
• Goldman breaks down the laggard trade and gives its comeback picks for first quarter 2024
• Bitcoin surges to $44,000 for the first time since April 2022: CNBC Crypto World
• Pentagon Chief Slams US Non-Interventionists As Weakening America

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 41 points or 0.11%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.84%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.54%,
• Gold $2048 down $42,
• WTI crude oil settled at $73 down $0.76,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.261% up 0.037 points,
• USD index $103.64 up $0.37,
• Bitcoin $41,882 up $1,796

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2023 Economic Forecast: Economy Is Likely To Decelerate

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

New orders for manufactured goods in October 2023 are down 1.4% year-over-year (blue line on the graph below). This compares favorably with the Federal Reserve’s manufacturing data which has manufacturing down 1.7% year-over-year (green line on the graph below). Manufacturing remains in a recession in the U.S.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Why Diesel Usually Costs More Than Gasoline
• The Minerals That China, the EU, and the US Deem Critical to National Security
• Is This The Technical Limit for Refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve?
• How China And The U.S. Were Both Key To OPEC+’s Bearish Oil Supply Cuts
• COP28 President: There Is ‘No Science’ Behind Calls for Fossil Fuel Phase-Out
• Swiss bank Banque Pictet admits hiding $5.6 billion of Americans’ money from IRS
• White House says U.S. funding about to run out; Ukraine to probe apparent shooting of two unarmed soldiers by Russian forces
• Regulators Hope You Don’t Notice The Massive Hidden Losses In The Banking System
• Nvidia Insiders File Paperwork To Dump 370,000 Shares

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 294 points or 0.82%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.55%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.59%,
• Gold $2,090 up $32.80,
• WTI crude oil settled at $74 down $1.72,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.217% down 0.135 points,
• USD Index $103.22 down $0.280,
• Bitcoin $38,804 up $1,079 ( 2.86% ),
• Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count up 3 to 625

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2023 Economic Forecast: Economy Is Likely To Decelerate

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Construction spending during October 2023 was 10.7% above October 2022 (10.0% inflation-adjusted). During the first ten months of this year, construction spending was 5.6% above the same period in 2022. Construction definitely is in a growth spurt.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI^® registered 46.7% in November 2021, unchanged from the 46.7% recorded in October. A Manufacturing PMI^® above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 48.3%.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• U.S. Adds Three More Shippers to Russian Sanction List over Oil Price Cap
• U.S. Oil Drillers See More Gains As OPEC+ Agrees to Cut Production
• Guyana on Edge Amid Rumors of a Venezuelan Invasion
• Oil Markets Confused and Underwhelmed by OPEC+ Cuts
• Fed Chair Powell calls talk of cutting rates ‘premature’ and says more hikes could happen
• S&P 500 rises on Friday to close at 2023 high: Live updates
• Bitcoin hits highest level since May 2022 to kick off December: CNBC Crypto World
• Market Snapshot: Dow tops 36,000 after remarks by Fed’s Powell, S&P 500 heads for highest close of 2023
• Futures Movers: Oil prices settle at a 2-week low as OPEC+ decision disappoints

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 520 points or 1.47%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.23%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.38%,
• Gold $2036 down $11,
• WTI crude oil settled at $76 down $2,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.344% up 0.073 points,
• USD index $103.51 up $0.75,
• Bitcoin $37,740 down $85

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2023 Economic Forecast: Economy Is Likely To Decelerate

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Disposable personal income (DPI) in October 2023, personal income less personal current taxes, increased to 3.9% year-over-year (from 3.8% in October 2022) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) remained steady at 2.2% rise year-over-year [all percentages inflation adjusted]. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index declined from 3.4% year-over-year last month to 3.0% in October 2023. In plain English, consumer spending and consumer income has essentially flatlined over the last 3 months which translates to a steady GDP growth. Inflation, on the other hand, had a significant improvement this month which may keep future federal funds increases at bay.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – dropped 1.5% to 71.4 in October 2023, the lowest number since the index was originated in 2001. Year over year, pending transactions declined 8.5%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist stated:

During October, mortgage rates were at their highest, and contract signings for existing homes were at their lowest in more than 20 years. Recent weeks’ successive declines in mortgage rates will help qualify more home buyers, but limited housing inventory is significantly preventing housing demand from fully being satisfied. Multiple offers, of course, yield only one winner, with the rest left to continue their search.

In the week ending November 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 220,000, a decrease of 500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 220,000 to 220,500.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• The Last 6 Months Have Been Devastating For U.S. Clean Energy Stocks
• Oil Prices Retreat As OPEC+ Cuts Another 684KBPD, Brazil Joins OPEC+
• The First-Ever Enhanced Geothermal Plant in the United States
• Russia’s Biggest Oil and Gas Exporters See Revenues Slump by 41%
• Consumer Reports: EVs Are Less Reliable Than Gasoline Cars
• Now at a new 2023 high, the Dow is approaching a record. These stocks could push it over the top
• Money Laundering Expert Raised Alarm Over “Unusual” Chinese Payments To Hunter Biden
• Tesla Hosts ‘Biggest Event On Earth This Year’ To Launch Cybertruck
• Bank of America, Wells Fargo lead gains in big-bank stocks to add to November’s win

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 13 points or 0.04%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.16%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.09%,
• Gold $2046 up $6.00,
• WTI crude oil settled at $78 up $1.32,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.265% down 0.069 points,
• USD index $102.84 up $0.01,
• Bitcoin $37,710 down $133

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for November 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The second estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 5.2% in the third quarter of 2023 – up from the advance estimate of 3Q2023 GDP of 4.9%. HOWEVER, the headline view of GDP exaggerates change, and the year-over-year growth was 3.0%.  In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.15. The update primarily reflected upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending. Imports, a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down. Also, note that the implicit price indicator (the measure of inflation) was revised down from the advance estimate’s 2.9% to 2.8% year-over-year.

The Federal Reserve’s 29 November, 2023 Beige Book shows that on balance, economic activity slowed since the previous report, with four Districts reporting modest growth, two indicating conditions were flat to slightly down, and six noting slight declines in activity. Retail sales, including autos, remained mixed; sales of discretionary items and durable goods, like furniture and appliances, declined, on average, as consumers showed more price sensitivity. Travel and tourism activity was generally healthy. Demand for transportation services was sluggish. Manufacturing activity was mixed, and manufacturers’ outlooks weakened. Demand for business loans decreased slightly, particularly real estate loans. Consumer credit remained fairly healthy, but some banks noted a slight uptick in consumer delinquencies. Agriculture conditions were steady to slightly up as farmers reported higher selling prices; yields were mixed. Commercial real estate activity continued to slow; the office segment remained weak and multifamily activity softened. Several Districts noted a slight decrease in residential sales and higher inventories of available homes. The economic outlook for the next six to twelve months diminished over the reporting period.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• New U.S. Sanctions on Iran Target Oil Revenues Feeding Military
• A Tech Breakthrough That Counters Critical Issues for Lithium-Sulfur Batteries
• South America’s Offshore Oil Boom Will Challenge OPEC’s Dominance
• Oil Prices Extend Gains as Market Awaits Key OPEC+ Meeting
• Here’s what it would take for the Fed to start slashing interest rates in 2024
• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says AI will be ‘fairly competitive’ with humans in 5 years
• Americans are ‘doom spending’ — here’s why that’s a problem
• Panama Forcing First Quantum To Close Mega-Copper Mine Is A “Significant Event”

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 84 points or 0.24%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.29%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.10%,
• Gold $2042 up $29,
• WTI crude oil settled at $76 up $1.46,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.332% down 0.056 points,
• USD index $102.78 down $0.042,
• Bitcoin $31,177 up $563

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for November 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

According to the U.S. CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index, housing market activity, while trending along the lowest levels in more than a decade, is showing signs of stabilizing. The 20-city composite indexes posted a third month of annual increases in September 2023 –  up by 3.9%, In other words, while seasonal declines will pull home sales down in the months ahead, October home sales are now roughly equal to activity during the same period in 2022. This suggests that the fourth quarter of 2023 may see a slight increase in home sales compared with last year. At the same time, the availability of for-sale listings has also stabilized to October 2022 levels. If this trend continues, 2024 may start off with more new listings than seen in early 2023. Nevertheless, while the balancing of the housing market is an encouraging sign, lower mortgage rates will be necessary to prompt a sustained increase in home sales.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased in November 2023 to 102.0 (1985=100), up from a downwardly revised 99.1 in October. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—ticked down slightly to 138.2 (1985=100), from 138.6. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—rose to 77.8 (1985=100) in November, up from its downwardly revised reading of 72.7 in October.

The Richmond Fed manufacturing activity slowed in November 2023. The composite manufacturing index decreased from 3 in October to −5 in November. Of its three component indexes, shipments fell from 9 to −8, new orders edged down from −4 to −5, and employment decreased from 7 to 0. Manufacturing across the U.S. remains in a recession.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• OPEC+ Rollover Agreement Likely Scenario, Meeting Could Be Delayed Again
• Will the Green Energy Stock Crash Continue Next Year?
• Oil Kneejerks On Fresh OPEC+ Discord Headlines
• U.S. Launches Oil and Gas Lease Sales on the Eve of Climate Summit
• Charlie Munger, investing genius and Warren Buffett’s right-hand man, dies at age 99
• Black Friday weekend shopping turnout soars to a record, as consumers seek bargains
• Refill Of Strategic Petroleum Reserve Slowed By Companies Delaying Return Of Borrowed Barrels
• What Happens When Millions Of Renters Can No Longer Afford High Rents And Move Back Home?

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 11 points or 0.16%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.07%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.20%,
• Gold $2014 up $11.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $75 down $0.53,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.385% down 0.099 points,
• USD index $103.22 down $0.18,
• Bitcoin $36,856 down $605

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for November 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Sales of new single‐family houses in October 2023 were 17.7% above October 2022. The median sales price of new houses sold in October 2023 was $409,300. The average sales price was $487,000. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was 439,000. This represents a supply of 7.8 months at the current sales rate.

The Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell 12 points to -7.2. The new orders index has been negative for 18 months and dropped from -8.8 to -20.5 in November. The capacity utilization index returned to negative territory, falling from 5.4 to -10.1. Manufacturing across the U.S. remains in a recession.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Chevron’s Kazakh Oil Output Hit in Raging Black Sea Storm
• OPEC Source Tells Reuters Bigger Cuts A Likely Option
• Why Gasoline Prices Fall Almost Every Year Between August and November
• Houthi Tanker Seizures Could Reignite the War Premium in Oil Markets
• China Issues Additional Fuel Import Quotas
• Rates may have hit their peak. How to get the biggest bang out of cash heading into 2024
• S&P 500 to reach record 5,100 next year, fueled by bumper corporate profits
• Guess Which Automaker Has “Absurdly High Inventory Levels”

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 117 points or 0.33%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.11%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.06%,
• Gold $2,004 up$11,
• WTI crude oil settled at $75 down $2,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.72% down 0.008 points,
• USD index $103.38 down $0.40,
• Bitcoin $37.850 up $545

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for November 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

No major releases today

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Bloomberg Analyst Survey Predicts OPEC+ Output Extension
• Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill Set to Be the Largest Since Deepwater Horizon
• Russia Becomes EU’s 2nd-Largest Supplier of Refined Petroleum Via India
• UAE Enforces Stricter Rules on Russian Firms in Clamp Down on Sanctions Evasion
• Indonesia Begins Construction on Its First Carbon Storage Project
• Los Angeles Leads 2023 National Shoplifting Spree
• US Forest Fire Burn Acreage Plunges To Multi-Decade Lows
• Community Colleges And Trade Schools Are Largely Void Of Israel-Hamas Protests
• Oil prices fall for 5th straight week as traders look ahead to delayed OPEC+ meeting

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 185 points or 0.53%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.46%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.41%,
• Gold $1991 down $10,
• WTI crude oil settled at $77 down $0.98,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.41% down 0.008 points,
• USD index $103.88 up $0.32,
• Bitcoin $37,676 up $1,925,
• Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count up 4 to 622

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for November 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in October 2023 decreased from 2.5% year-over-year (YoY) the previous month to 0.3% YoY this month. Inflation-adjusted new orders declined 5.3% YoY. Durable goods new orders growth has been generally declining since mid-year.

The University of Michigan Consumer sentiment fell a modest 2.5 index points, or 4%, from October. While this marks the fourth consecutive month of declines, November’s reading reflects a balance of factors, some of which improved while others worsened. More-favorable current assessments and expectations of personal finances were offset by a notable deterioration in expected business conditions. In particular, long-run business conditions plunged by 15% to its lowest since July 2022. Younger and middle-aged consumers exhibited strong declines in economic attitudes this month, while sentiment of those age 55 and older improved from October.

In the week ending November 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 220,000, a decrease of 750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 220,250 to 220,750.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Venezuelan Output Rises to 850,000 Bpd Amid Sanctions Relaxation
• Precious Metals Prices Stagnate Amid Global Uncertainties
• Manufacturing in Major Economies Continues Downward Trend
• New Tungsten Oxide Coating Boosts Hydrogen Fuel Cell Life
• Andurand: OPEC+ May Need to Cut More as U.S. Oil Production Soars
• Bad news for Black Friday: Retailers cast doubt on holiday shopping with cautious guidance
• Israel-Hamas war live updates: Four-day pause in fighting to begin Thursday morning, Hamas says
• Bond Yields & Bitcoin Jump As Black Gold Dumps’n’Pumps
• For The First Time Since The Covid Crisis, There Are More Global Rate Cuts Than Hikes

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.