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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

For over two years, inflation adjusted retail sales has been soft – and May 2024 data continues soft retail sales up 2.9% year-0ver-year (up 0.8% inflation adjusted). I use unadjusted data as I only care about year-over-year growth which does not require seasonal adjustments. The economic weakness comes from the following sectors: furniture/home furnishing; building materials; health/personal care stores; and department stores. High growth sectors: miscellaneous stores; and non-store retailers.

Industrial Production increased 0.4% year-over-year with subindices manufacturing up 0.05% year-over-year; utilities up 3.9% year-over-year; and mining down 0.4% year-over-year. Nothing to write home about but manufacturing technically is not in a recession with 0.05% growth. Major weakness was in construction supplies.

Here are some of headlines we are reading today:

• New Report Highlights Rising Investments in Nuclear Arsenals
• Citgo Corpus Christi Oil Refinery Restarts
• Power Outage Could Reduce Norway’s Gas Supply to Europe Again
• Coal India Studies Argentina Lithium Asset Development With U.S. Company
• Oil Prices Bounced Back After Markets Overreacted to the OPEC Announcement
• Oil Prices Bounced Back After Markets Overreacted to the OPEC Announcement
• Nvidia passes Microsoft in market cap to become most valuable public company
• The Fed is ‘playing with fire’ by not cutting rates, says creator of ‘Sahm Rule’ recession indicator
• Major altcoins sink amid broader crypto pullback: CNBC Crypto World
• Treasury yields retreat as weak retail sales raise concerns about consumer
• May retail sales rise 0.1%, weaker than expected
• Boeing’s stock falls as lawmakers blast CEO Calhoun for ‘strip mining’ company for profits

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The New York Fed’s June 2024 Empire State Manufacturing Survey headline general business conditions index moved up ten points but remained below zero at -6.0. Values below  zero indicate contraction. New orders held steady, while shipments inched higher. Delivery times shortened somewhat, and supply availability—a new monthly indicator now included in these reports—was little changed. The bottom line is that this survey continues to show that manufacturing in this region continues in a recession.

Here are some of headlines we are reading today:

• Russia Reclaims Its Position as Europe’s Top Gas Supplier
• Crew Abandons Sinking Bulk Carrier In Red Sea After Houthi Attack
• Oil Prices Jump 2% on Improving Demand Outlook
• U.S. Gasoline Prices Up After 3-Week Decline
• Carbon Capture Technology Called a ‘Boondoggle’ for Oil Industry
• Denmark Looks to Curb Dark Fleet Carrying Russian Oil in the Baltic Sea
• Nvidia to get 20% weighting and billions in investor demand, while Apple demoted in major tech fund
• S&P 500 rises to record close on Monday, Dow snaps four-day losing streak: Live updates
• How immigrants are helping keep job growth hot while inflation cools
• 80% of Americans say grocery costs have notably increased since the pandemic started, survey finds

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Livingston Survey is the oldest continuous survey of economists’ expectations that summarizes the forecasts of economists from industry, government, banking, and academia. The Livingston Survey for June 2024 states:

The 23 participants in the June Livingston Survey predict higher output growth for the first half of 2024 than they predicted in the December 2023 survey. The forecasters, who are surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia twice a year, now project that the economy’s output (real GDP) will grow at an annual rate of 2.0 percent during the first half of 2024. They expect weaker conditions in the second half of 2024, when growth is expected to be at an annual rate of 1.7 percent. Both projections represent upward revisions from those of the December 2023 survey. Growth is expected to average an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the first half of 2025.

Prices for U.S. imports rose 1.1% for the year ended in May 2024, matching the over-the-year increase in April. The May and April 12-month advances are the largest over-the-year increases since December 2022. Prices for import fuel fell 2.0 percent in May or the gain in import prices would have been larger. Prices for U.S. exports rose 0.6% from May 2023 to May 2024, the first 12-month advance since January 2023. As 15%+ of US consumption is on imported products and services – I would expect an impact to inflation from imports.

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment according to the authors was little changed in June 2024 saying “this month’s reading was a statistically insignificant 3.5 index points below May and within the margin of error. Sentiment is currently about 31% above the trough seen in June 2022 amid the escalation in inflation. Assessments of personal finances dipped, due to modestly rising concerns over high prices as well as weakening incomes. Overall, consumers perceive few changes in the economy from May.”

Here are some of headlines we are reading today:

• China’s Small Banks Face Scrutiny Over Russian War Support at G7
• Canada Poised to Reclaim Top Spot as World’s Largest Uranium Producer
• U.S. Oil, Gas Drilling Activity Sees Further Declines
• “Bitcoin is Exponential Gold”, Says Fidelity’s Director Of Global Macro
• Tesla Shareholders Push Back Against ESG Proposals
• China’s Oil Demand Threatened by LNG Trucks
• Nasdaq Composite ekes out record close, notches a 3% weekly gain: Live updates
• Adobe shares surge 15% for sharpest rally since 2020
• Bitcoin dips into the $65,000 level to end the week: CNBC Crypto World
• Counterfeit Titanium Found In Some Boeing And Airbus Jets
• Treasury yields see biggest two- and three-week declines since December as bonds keep rallying

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Honestly, I am really glad I do the analysis of inflation myself. If you read the vomit spewed by the financial wizards of the mass media you would be convinced inflation is abating. In fact, the way US Census released the Producer Price Index for final demand was also misleading: “The Producer Price Index for final demand declined 0.2 percent in May…”. Because of the convoluted seasonal adjustments, data errors, and other analytic BS – the only way to wash the info is to do a year-over-year analysis which does not require seasonal adjustments and averages out the data errors. The truth is that the PPI inflation is up 2.24% in May 2024 which is down from April’s 2.27% – literally no change in the inflation rate in this level below retail. And the primary reason the PPI did not rise is due to a 7.1% decline in the price for gasoline. Look at the table below which displays the year-over-year inflation changes from May 2023 – do you see where inflation is abating?

Month	Change in final demand from 12 months ago (unadj.)	Change in final demand less foods, energy, and trade from 12mo. ago (unadj.)
2023
May	1.1	2.9
June	0.3	2.9
July	1.1	2.9
Aug.	1.9	2.9
Sept.	1.8	2.9
Oct.	1.1	2.8
Nov.	0.8	2.5
Dec.	1.1	2.7
2024
Jan.	1.0	2.7
Feb.	1.6	2.8
Mar.	1.9	2.9
Apr.	2.3	3.2
May	2.2	3.2

When the Port of Los Angeles is combined with the Port of Long Beach, the two ports handled approximately 29% of all containerized international waterborne trade in the U.S. These ports release their statistics early – and give us an insight into trade statistics for the entire nation. In May 2023, imports were down 5% year-over-year whilst exports were down 1%. Imports correlate to U.S. consumer spending – and this data is generally saying spending is down. However, before COVID, May was one of the lowest months for container imports. Over the last year – every month has been relatively equal. Therefore, I am challenged to offer an opinion on what this month’s data means – and I will pass this month.

In the week ending June 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 227,000, an increase of 4,750 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 222,250.

Here are some of headlines we are reading today:

• U.S. Automakers Race to Offset the Rise in Copper Prices
• Microsoft: Russian and Chinese State Hackers Pose Growing Threat
• JPMorgan Analysts Cast Doubt on Tesla’s Robotaxi Revenue
• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang Declares a New Industrial Revolution
• Falling Energy Prices Spark Hopes for Fed Rate Cuts
• S&P 500 posts its fourth straight record close, buoyed by cooler inflation data: Live updates
• Trump floats eliminating U.S. income tax and replacing it with tariffs on imports
• Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour shows trigger earthquake readings in Scotland; estimated $98 million economic boost
• FOMC Holds Rates As Expected, Dot-Plot Shifts More Hawkish In 2024
• FOMC Preview: From Three Rate Cuts To Two
• Housing demand wanes as buyers bank on rate cut

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 3.3% year-over-year in May 2024 – down slightly from last month’s 3.4% year-over-year. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.4% over the last 12 months. In looking at the internals, gasoline declined whilst shelter and food increased. Although the CPI marginally declined, it remains a long way from from the Fed’s 2.0% target.

The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting concluded today with no change to the federal funds rate of 5-1/4 to 5-1/2% as expected. Their statement begins:

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. In recent months, there has been modest further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent inflation objective.

The question always remains when will the Fed reduce the federal funds rate. The following shows the FOMC participants’ assessments of what they GUESS the midpoint of target range or target level for the federal funds rate would be over time. This new set of “guesses” is more hawkish (meaning the potential reductions are further in the future). The numbers in the columns represent the number of participants projecting the midpoint of target range or target level. For 2024, 4 participants anticipate NO reduction to the federal funds rate while 7 believe there will be one rate reductions and 8 think there will be two reductions.

Midpoint of target range or target level (Percent)	2024	2025	2026	Longer run
5.500
5.375	4	1
5.250
5.125	7
5.000
4.875	8	1	1
4.750
4.625
4.500
4.375		4
4.250
4.125		9	1
4.000
3.875		2
3.750				1
3.625		1	3	1
3.500				2
3.375			3
3.250
3.125			7	1
3.000				4
2.875		1	2
2.750				3
2.625			1	1
2.500				5
2.375			1	1
2.250

Here are some of headlines we are reading today:

• Inflation in China is Finally Beginning to Stabilize
• 300 New Sanctions for Russia as US Looks to Tighten the Noose
• The New Trucking Trend Transforming Chinese Oil Demand
• Citi Says Oil Could Crash to Sub-$60 Level
• Oil Drops on Inventory Build
• Chinese EV Stocks Tank on Tariff Drama
• Quality Concerns Could Hurt Demand for Trans Mountain Crude on US West Coast
• Fed recap: Chair Powell explains why the central bank isn’t ready yet to cut rates
• Inflation slows in May, with consumer prices up 3.3% from a year ago
• S&P 500 closes above 5,400 for the first time as Fed notes ‘modest’ inflation progress: Live updates
• Top Southwest shareholder signals support for Elliott Management’s activist campaign
• Apple briefly surpasses Microsoft as world’s most valuable company after unveiling AI plans
• FOMC Holds Rates As Expected, Dot-Plot Shifts More Hawkish In 2024
• 2-year Treasury yield has biggest drop since May after cooler CPI data and Fed update

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index reached the highest reading of the year in May at 90.5, a 0.8-point increase but still the 29^th month below the historical average of 98. The Uncertainty Index rose nine points to 85, the highest reading since November 2020. Twenty-two percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, unchanged from April and the top business problem among owners. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg added:

The small business sector is responsible for the production of over 40% of GDP and employment, a crucial portion of the economy. But for 29 consecutive months, small business owners have expressed historically low optimism and their views about future business conditions are at the worst levels seen in 50 years. Small business owners need relief as inflation has not eased much on Main Street.

Here are some of headlines we are reading today:

• Trade War Concerns Loom Over US and UK Elections
• EIA: U.S. Crude Oil Production to Average 13.2 million bpd in 2024
• 4 Questions About the Future of Electricity
• Stocks Shrug Off EU Elections While Bitcoin, Gold, and Oil Shine
• Volkswagen and Isuzu Chill South Africa’s EV Ambitions
• Jet Fuel Shortage Hits Japan Amid Tourism Boom
• Fed meeting and inflation report both hit Wednesday, and the impact could be huge
• OpenAI ex-employees worry about company’s control over their millions of dollars in shares
• National Amusements stops discussions with Skydance on Paramount deal, sources say
• Cryptocurrencies fall as investors await Fed decision, bitcoin dips under $67,000
• AI is getting very popular among students and teachers, very quickly
• Bitcoin Battered, Bonds Bid, Apple Bounces Back Before Big-Risk Day
• Natural-gas surges over 7% to end at 5-month high on forecasts for extreme heat

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The ADP Research Institute survey asked nearly 35,000 private-sector workers in 18 countries what role they think AI will play in their work over the next few years. A large majority of workers worldwide say artificial intelligence will affect their jobs in the coming years. Honestly, I think that AI will replace many jobs in the near future – except for jobs in the construction, transportation, health, maintenance/repair, and mining industries. And the near future begins now and includes the next two or three years. Tell me this will not radically change the consumer driven economy.

Here are some of headlines we are reading today:

• Texas is Leading U.S. GDP Growth, Fueled by Oil and Energy
• WTI Gains 2.5% On Driving Season Fuel Demand Optimism
• U.S. Gasoline Prices Post Super Rare Double-Digit Weekly Drop
• What’s Next for Copper Markets?
• Goldman Sachs Sees Oil Prices Rising to $86 This Summer
• Here’s everything Apple just announced at WWDC24: Apple Intelligence, Siri with ChatGPT, iOS 18 and more
• S&P 500 and Nasdaq close at fresh records, clinch first winning day in three as Fed decision approaches: Live updates
• Elliott takes $1.9 billion stake in Southwest Airlines, seeks to oust CEO and chair
• GameStop shares slide 12% following Friday’s 40% sell-off
• Home equity is near a record high. Tapping it may be tricky due to high interest rates
• Trump wants IRS to stop taxing workers’ tips, as Americans say tipping is ‘out of control’
• Coffee’s future lies in fancier ingredients and younger consumers, analysts say, as daily consumption dips

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 272,000 in May 2024, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.0%. Employment continued to trend up in several industries, led by health care; government; leisure and hospitality; and professional, scientific, and technical services. Talk about crazy, the headline establishment survey showing employment gain of 272,000 (blue bars on the graph below) – the household survey shows an employment DECREASE of 408,000 (red bars on the graph below). Either one or both of the surveys must be wrong as they do not agree. And the household survey (which is the basis of the headline unemployment rate) shows the total workforce fell by 250,000 whilst the number of unemployed increased by 157,000. Also worth noting that the temporary help services fell for the third month in a row which is indicative of a slowing economy.

April 2024 sales of merchant wholesalers were up 1.4% from the revised April 2023 level. Total inventories of merchant wholesalers were down 1.7% from the revised April 2023 level
The April inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers was 1.35. The April 2023 ratio was 1.39. A rising inventory/sales ratio is indicative of a slowing economy – but the amount of rise is currently insignificant – and my takeaway from this and employment levels in this industry is that the economy remains little changed.

U.S. homeowners with a mortgage pulled in $28,000 in equity gains year over year in first quarter of 2024, the highest number since late 2022. California ($64,000), Massachusetts ($61,000) and New Jersey ($59,000) led the country for annual home equity gains in the first quarter. Dr. Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic added:

Holy crap Batman – the Federal Reserve says consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.5 percent in April 2024. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 0.4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent. My preferred method of calculating consumer credit growth is 2.0% growth year-over-year. And a 2.0% growth taking inflation into account is a decline of 0.2% year-over-year. This is a major warning sign that the consumer is reducing its use of credit – and that translates into fewer purchases. Fewer purchases = a slowing economy. The slowing is most noticeable in non-revolving credit (cars, student loans, and personal loans) but revolving credit (credit cards) is also slowing.

Here are some of headlines we are reading today:

• China’s EV Boom Sparks Trade Tensions with US and EU
• Biden Administration Seizes Opportunity to Refill SPR Amid Price Dip
• U.S. Oil, Gas Activity Declines
• Gold Surpasses Euro, Challenges Dollar Dominance in Global Reserves
• Iran Doubles Down on Nuclear Ambitions Following IAEA Censure
• Hopes of Fed Cut Jolts Oil Prices
• Tensions Between the West and Russia are Rising Again
• Market backs off on hopes for interest rate cuts following strong jobs report
• S&P 500 closes flat near record, posts winning week: Live updates
• GameStop tumbles 40% as ‘Roaring Kitty’ trader says little new about retailer on livestream
• The Fed’s rate decision and May inflation data will be key tests for the stock market next week
• Bitcoin in the red to end the week after better-than-expected May jobs report: CNBC Crypto World
• 10-year Treasury yield shoots higher after May payrolls top expectations
• US jobs surge casts doubt over interest rate cuts
• Treasury yields end at highest in a week after May’s job gains reduce rate-cut expectations

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

According to NFIB’s monthly jobs report, a net 18% (seasonally adjusted) of small business owners plan to raise compensation in the next three months in May 2024, down three points from last month and the lowest reading since March 2021. Seasonally adjusted, a net 37% of owners reported raising compensation, down one point from April but historically very high. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated:

An exceptionally high number of small businesses are still struggling to fill open positions. Although plans to increase compensation have fallen, small firms continue in their efforts to attract and retain workers.

April 2024 imports were up 3.4% year-over-year (down from 3.7% year-over-year in March 2024. April exports were up 6.1% year-over-year (up from 3.4% year-over-year in March. Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $5.5 billion, or 2.0 percent, from the same period in 2023.

U.S.-based employers announced 63,816 cuts in May, a 1.5% decrease from the 64,789 cuts announced one month prior. It is down 20% from the 80,089 cuts announced in the same month in 2023. According to Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.:

Job cuts remained flat in May as companies assess performance and make plans for Q3 and Q4. Meanwhile, hiring announcements are at their lowest levels in a decade. The typical churn in a healthy labor market appears to be stalling. Cuts in the Technology sector dominated announcements last year. While the sector continues to make cuts, it isn’t nearly at the same pace.

In the week ending June 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 222,250, a decrease of 750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 222,500 to 223,000.

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.9% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2024. Unit labor costs are up 0.9% year-over-year. If productivity grows faster than labor costs – it is a sign of increased competitiveness on the international stage.

Here are some of headlines we are reading today:

• Surge in Demand Drives Up Shipping Costs for U.S. Importers
• Trafigura Profit Drops 73% As Oil Price Boom Fades
• Algorithm Trades Worsened The Oil Price Slump after OPEC’s Decision
• U.S. Seeks to Pressure Houthis to Stop Red Sea Ship Attacks
• Commodity Stocks Poised for Further Gains
• Billionaire Frank McCourt’s TikTok bid wins key backer as he looks past app’s prized algorithm
• Young job seekers are finding it tougher to find employment, despite a bustling labor market: ‘It was brutal’
• The low-end consumer ‘is really being stretched,’ says Five Below CEO
• EV slump, Hertz fire sale take used Teslas to ‘no haggle’ $25,000 price
• This bond-market recession signal has been flashing since 2022, with no downturn
• Your summer stock-market rally is coming as the S&P 500 flashes a ‘buy’ signal

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Private employers added 152,000 jobs in May 2024 and annual pay was up 5.0% year-over-year. Job gains were slower in May due to a steep decline in manufacturing. Leisure and hospitality also showed weaker hiring. Since August 2023. if anything – the trend of ADP’s jobs growth has been improving. Also note that with such a low unemployment rate, 150,000 job growth is more than enough to maintain a low unemployment rate. The graph below compares ADP’s private employment growth to the BLS’s total non-farm employment growth. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP noted:

Job gains and pay growth are slowing going into the second half of the year. The labor market is solid, but we’re monitoring notable pockets of weakness tied to both producers and consumers.

In May 2024, the ISM Services PMI^® registered 53.8% 4.4 percentage points higher than April’s reading of 49.4%. The contraction in April ended a string of 15 months of services sector growth following a composite index reading of 49 percent in December 2022; the last contraction before that was in May 2020 (45.4 percent). The Business Activity Index registered 61.2 percent in May, which is 10.3 percentage points higher than the 50.9 percent recorded in April. The New Orders Index expanded in May for the 17th consecutive month after contracting in December 2022 for the first time since May 2020; the figure of 54.1 percent is 1.9 percentage points higher than the April reading of 52.2 percent. I was worried that the service portion of the economy was slowing – but today’s index shows this sector is just a little soft but not weakening.

Here are some of headlines we are reading today:

• Biden Wants Big Tech To Invest in Power Generation for AI Boom
• Washington Looking to Revive More Shuttered Nuclear Plants
• Heat-Resistant Aluminum Alloys: A Breakthrough in Aerospace Engineering
• Virginia Breaks Free from California’s EV Mandate
• Oil Under Pressure As EIA Confirms Rising Crude, Fuel Inventories
• Russia’s War in Ukraine Has Hit Gazprom’s Revenues Hard
• Saudi Aramco Looks to Buy Into U.S. LNG Project
• Nvidia briefly passes Apple as second most valuable public U.S. company
• Boeing Starliner launches for the first time carrying NASA astronauts to the ISS

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.