Updated at 4:25 p.m. EST Saturday, January 14, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. This article also includes World weather forecasts.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 245 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2023 Valid 00Z Sun Jan 15 2023 - 00Z Tue Jan 17 2023 ...Rounds of heavy rain and snow continue in the West through the weekend... ...Unseasonably warm temperatures in the central U.S. ahead of a developing low pressure system late Sunday... ...Conditions remain chilly across the East Coast and South with temperatures near or below freezing spreading into Florida...
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the above maps updated. They only update twice a day and in some cases once a day.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY
MONDAY
I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later you can get updates by clicking HERE.
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast (It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
Yet another couple Pacific storm systems are forecast to impact the West this weekend bringing heavy lower elevation rain, significant mountain snow, and strong winds. The first system is approaching the coast this afternoon and will move inland this evening and tonight, with heavy rain likely occurring across California as another surge of Pacific moisture streams ahead of the main cold front. Multiple Slight Risks of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) are in effect through tonight in favorable upslope terrain areas along the California coast, the Transverse Ranges, and the foothills of the Sierra where 2-3"+ of rain could lead to localized instances of urban and small stream flooding as well as mudslides. Lighter rainfall could continue Sunday with another ramp-up late Sunday into early Monday ahead of a second system. Winter-wise, Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for higher elevations in the Sierra where 3-6 feet of snow is forecast through Monday. Wind Advisories are also in effect today for portions of coastal California as well as the Central Valley for sustained winds upwards of 20-30 mph and gusts of 50 mph. Farther north and inland, moisture will also overspread the Pacific Northwest and Interior West tonight into Sunday. Most lower elevation/valley locations will start with rain showers today before switching over to a wintry mix/snow tonight and Sunday, outside of the Desert Southwest. Heavier snow is forecast for many higher elevation mountain locations from Central Idaho south into the Great Basin and Four Corners Region with numerous winter-weather related advisories in effect. Higher elevations across the Four Corners states in particular could see upwards of 1-2 feet of snow through Monday morning. Temperatures will be unseasonably warm in the center of the country ahead of the unsettled weather to the West. Warmer than average temperatures currently across the High Plains should shift into the rest of the Plains and the Mississippi Valley by Sunday and Monday as broad southerly flow helps to warm up temperatures. Highs will range from the 80s for parts of Texas, to the 50s and 60s in the Middle Mississippi Valley, and the 30s and 40s in the Upper Midwest. By Monday morning daily records for warm lows could be set/tied across the central U.S. with this pattern. Meanwhile, rapid cyclogenesis is forecast to occur in the lee of the Central Rockies Sunday ahead of an upper level trough moving in from the West. Increasing winds on top of the warm temperatures and dry antecedent conditions have prompted a Critical Fire Weather Outlook highlighting portions of the Southern High Plains from the Storm Prediction Center. Precipitation chances will increase in some areas Sunday night into Monday as the low rapidly moves northeastward into the Middle Missouri Valley. Some light rain showers will be possible ahead of a developing cold front across the Mississippi Valley, with a wintry mix and snow to the northwest of the low track over portions of the Central/Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Farther east, some light snow showers could linger in the Appalachians through the evening as northwest flow remains in place across the region following the passage of a cold front Friday. A wintry mix will also continue for portions of coastal New England as an area of low pressure over the Atlantic passes by to the east. Some light ice accumulations of around a tenth of an inch are possible, particularly for Downeast Maine. Cooler than normal highs across the East today should be more limited toward the Southeast by Sunday/Monday as the northeastern U.S. moderates closer to normal. Florida in particular though can expect a chilly Saturday night/Sunday morning--Freeze Watches and Warnings are in place for the northern part of the peninsula as temperatures could dip into the upper 20s, while Frost Advisories are in effect for the southern part.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HE RE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the current precipitation forecast and the 10-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and additional information can be obtained HERE
Much of this information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking h ere Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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