At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is January of 2023. They also issue a Drought Outlook for the following month. We are reporting on that this evening New Year’s Eve.
There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for January and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading. We highlighted some of the important changes within the NOAA Discussion. Of particular interest is the absence of major disruptive factors which were present in December. There has not been much discussion about a potential Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) Event but it has been of concern and that concern now seems to have lessened. The potential for a SSW is no longer in the forecast hence there is minimal cold-air intrusions from the Arctic in the Outlook for January.
The article includes the Drought Outlook for January. We have also included the current fire incidents (not many) and four months of Wildland Fire Potential Outlooks and also a map showing the year-to-date snowpack and precipitation in the West. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.
| We will continue to update the 48-hour Forecast over the New Year’s Weekend and that can be accessed HERE. Just click on the return arrow in the upper left of your screen to return to this article. |
Here is the updated Outlook for January
Mid-Month Outlook for January
| There has been quite a change. It is warmer and wetter with less intrusion of cool air from the north. Remember, it is the top set of maps that are the current outlook for January. |
Combination of the Updated Outlook for January and Three-Month Outlook
| The differences are mainly due to the expected season variation as a la Nina weakens and less concern about cold air intrusion from the north. What is not said is there had been concern about a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event possibly related to the Tonga volcano eruption a year ago. It is hinted at in the NOAA discussion. |
There are some reversals in the new forecast for January relative to the three-month forecast. By a reversal we mean a change from wet to dry or warm to cool. Most of the changes are from Wet/dry/warm/cool to neutral or the reverse. But there are some significant reversals.
| For both temperature and precipitation, if you assume the colors in the maps are assigned correctly, it is a simple algebra equation to solve the month two/three anomaly probability for a given location = (3XThree-Month Probability – Month One Probability)/2*. So you can derive the month two/three outlook this way. You can do that calculation easily for where you live or for the entire map. |
It is important to remember that the January Outlook was updated on December 31 and the three-month Outlook was issued on December 15. So we always wonder if a change in the one-month outlook suggests that the three-month outlook would need to also be adjusted. I think that in this case, the answer is that it might be wise to review that but it will not happen until the third Thursday in January. Probably there will be no significant changes for the remainder of the winter. We will get a hint of that when the ENSO Update is issued on January 8 which is not far from now.
Here are larger versions of the Temperature and Precipitation Outlook maps
NOAA (Realy their Climate Prediction Division CPC) Discussion (I have shown certain important points in bold type. my comments if any are in brackets [ ])
Prognostic Discussion for Monthly Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Sat Dec 31 2022
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JANUARY 2023
The outlook for Jan 2023 reflects the latest status of ENSO, potential impacts from MJO activity, an analysis of the potential for SSW [sudden stratospheric warming], recent SST [seas surface temperature]anomalies, dynamical model guidance, and official outlooks for the near-term. La Nina is still in place across the Pacific. The MJO is currently in Phase 7, and likely to remain just barely of significant amplitude during the next two weeks. The odds of a SSW are low. The team noted some eddy heat fluxes likely to impact the polar stratosphere regions, but the currently strong vortex is weakened but not displaced toward North America according to the latest GFS runs. The AO is likely to be negative during the middle of the month, while the NAO is only likely to be near zero, indicating that any major circulation shift would be larger over Asia [I assume they are referring to Siberia] , less impactful to the North America sector.
Early in the month, much of the CONUS is expected to experience above-normal temperatures, while below-normal temperatures are likely from California to the Intermountain West. During week-2, the favoring of above-normal temperatures remains for the Northeast, Great Lakes, and much of the Great Plains, while the signal for below-normal temperatures abates over the West. Combining the outlooks for the first two weeks, with model output for the latter half of the month results in a favoring of above-normal temperatures from the Great Plains to the East Coast, with the highest odds across the Northeast. A small area of below-normal temperatures are favored across portions of California, Nevada, and Oregon, mainly due to signals early in the month. Odds across the Great Plains are lower than many dynamical models , partially due to the lagged impacts from a Phase 7 MJO during DJF and partially due to the possibility of a late month negative NAO, which would both support a colder period across much of the Central and Eastern CONUS. Dynamical models, lagged MJO impacts, and a projected positive PNA for much of the month all support above-normal temperatures for much of Alaska.
The precipitation outlook is less certain for the latter portions of Jan 2023. A wet start to the month from California to the Northern Plains supports above-normal precipitation from South Dakota to Utah, and across the entirety of the West Coast States. Portions of those areas are likely to receive enough precipitation in the first week of Jan 2023 to exceed the threshold for above-normal precipitation. Consistent with the ongoing La Nina, signals for below-normal precipitation persist across the Rio Grande Valley while above-normal precipitation is still slightly favored from the Tennessee Valley to the Great Lakes and portions of the Northeast. Above-normal precipitation is favored across Northern, Western, and Southern Mainland Alaska, while signals over the interior are mixed. A stormy pattern early in the month supports the wet signal along the southern coast of Alaska, while later in the month, the wet signal spreads across more of the state, consistent with the ongoing La Nina. Lagged impacts from a Phase 7 MJO indicate that troughing can help steer storms into Western Alaska for the following 10 days with a shift toward a more split storm track 15-20 days later, so the supports the North-South expanse of the area where above-normal precipitation is favored.
Information on some key indices mentioned in the CPC Discussion
| A negative AO means the high pressure needed to contain cold Arctic air is farther south than usual. |
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| The NAO is more complex but has a similar impact to the east of where the AO has its impact. This LINK may be of interest. |
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Sudden Stratospheric Warming SSW. That is certainly not intuitive.
| This link to a video might be helpful. What is important is that a rapid warming of the stratosphere often results in cold events in the lower part of the atmosphere. So the name of the event can be confusing. |
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Drought Outlook
Here is the newly issued Drought Outlook for January 2023
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| You can see where drought development or reduction is likely. There is a large area of improvement shown. The summary and detailed discussions that accompany this graphic can be accessed HERE |
Here is the short version of the drought summary
Latest Monthly Assessment – There was more improvement than deterioration in drought conditions over the past several weeks. Drought coverage on the U.S. Drought Monitor peaked at 63 percent in late October, but dropped below 50 percent in late December for the first time since the beginning of autumn. Heavy precipitation brought major improvement to drought areas from the southern Appalachians through much of the Tennessee Valley and parts of the lower Ohio and Mississippi Valleys. For the last 30 days, rainfall totaled 5 to locally over 10 inches from far eastern Texas through much of the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The U.S. Drought Monitor depicted 2- to 3-category improvements over most of Kentucky, Tennessee, northern sections of Alabama and Georgia, and small areas in Arkansas and Louisiana. Most other areas across the interior South showed more modest improvements, along with parts of the central and northern Atlantic Seaboard, the northern and southern Plains, and several areas from the Rocky Mountains to the Pacific Coast. Precipitation was exceptionally heavy over parts of the Far West. Totals approaching or exceeding 12 inches fell across much of the Sierra Nevada, the Cascades, and the Pacific Coast from southwestern California to the Canadian Border. Substantial portions of the Sierra Nevada, northwestern California, southwestern Oregon, the northern Cascades, and the Washington coastline recorded over 20 inches of precipitation.
There were a few areas where drought deterioration prevailed. Significant portions of the central High Plains, eastern Great Lakes Region, and the South Atlantic Region saw 1-category degradations in the U.S. Drought Monitor, with 2-category declines noted along parts of extreme southeastern Georgia. From northeastern New Mexico and southeastern Colorado through southwestern Kansas and the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, amounts of 0.15 inch or less were recorded.
Heavy precipitation is expected to continue through most of January in the West, and drought is expected to broadly improve over the Far West, much of the Great Basin and adjacent Intermountain West, and the central Rocky Mountains. Between 5 and 10 inches of precipitation are forecast for the first week of January throughout the Sierra Nevada and most of western California, with liquid-equivalent amounts between 1 and 3 inches in the higher elevations from the central and southern Rockies through the Great Basin. Drought is also expected to improve in most areas from the lower and middle Mississippi Valley to the East Coast, where heavy precipitation is expected early in the month. Precipitation is expected to top 1.5 inches by January 7 from the central Gulf Coast northward through the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys, the Tennessee Valley, and the interior South Atlantic States. More than 3 inches is anticipated in a few swaths from the southern Appalachians through the Florida Panhandle during this period. Slowly improving conditions are also anticipated in the areas of drought across Hawaii.
Existing drought conditions are expected to persist or worsen over the northern Rockies, the desert Southwest, and the Plains States during January. Some drought expansion is expected in Deep South Texas, where above-normal temperatures are expected to exacerbate ongoing precipitation deficits.
Drought is absent across both Puerto Rico and Alaska, and no development is expected by the end of January.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast
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| To update this forecast (which updates on Tuesdays) click HERE |
Tracking Temperature and Precipitation as the month proceeds
Looking back at December this is what we have observed with respect to Temperature
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Month-to-date Temperature as the current month evolves can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTD eptUS.png
Looking back at December this is what we observed with respect to precipitation.
Month-to-date Precipitation as the current month evolves can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/pro ducts/maps/acis/MonthPNormUS.png
CLIMAS Podcast (Sorry, we do not have one this month)
Water-Year to Date SWE and Precipitation
Water year-to-date SWE can be found by clicking HERE I provided a map current as of December 30, 2022
At this time of the year it is probably better to look at precipitation since much of the precipitation has been in the form of rain not snow.
This graphic can be updated HERE It is the same link. You just make a different selection when you get there.
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| It is just three months in the water year but pretty interesting and shows the change in pattern at least temporarily. The color coding is the same for both graphics so it makes a difference if you are looking for total precipitation from October 1 or current snowpack (SWE). It has been colder than usual in some places so they have a lot of snow. In other places, it has been warmer than usual. New Mexico is a good example with below-average SWE but average precipitation. |
Fire Outlook: Current and Forecast
Updates to the major fire situation can be found by clicking here https://fsapps.nwcggov/afm/index.php
Now looking at the wildland fire potential Outlooks. (These will be updated when NIFE issues the updated maps on January 1 or 2 or when they get back from vacation.)
By January 1 or 2, I will have updated the above maps. If you read this article a month from now, you can update these graphics by clicking here https://www.nifc.gov
| I hope you found this article interesting and useful |
