This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Nov 15 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 15 2024 – 12Z Sun Nov 17 2024…Unsettled weather persists throughout much of the West today before the
next strong storm system enters the Pacific Northwest on Saturday……Elevated fire weather concerns continue across parts of the Northeast…
…Next round of heavy rain and severe weather potential to develop over
the Southern Plains late Sunday…The end of the workweek and upcoming weekend will have plenty of potential
weather hazards scattered across the Nation as we reach the midway point
of November. A system crossing the Intermountain West today will continue
to bring areas of moderate snowfall from the central Sierra Nevada to the
Northern Rockies into Saturday. The highest elevations have high chances
(>70%) for at least 4 inches of snowfall and coincide with where Winter
Weather Advisories have been issued. Precipitation is also possible across
the Northern Plains on Saturday as an area of low pressure crosses the
region, with a mix of rain and snow at times. This system will also have
the potential to produce periods of strong winds across parts of the
Montana Front Range on Saturday. As the weekend begins, a strong frontal
boundary and surge of Pacific moisture is set to move inland across the
Pacific Northwest and bring the potential for heavy coastal/lowland
rainfall and snow to the Washington and Oregon Cascades. In fact, Winter
Storm Watches have been hoisted for the Cascades due to the potential for
total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 feet, with locally higher snow amounts
over the highest peaks.For the East, two separate storm systems brushing coastal regions while a
large area of high pressure builds into the Great Lakes and slides over
the Appalachians by Sunday will drive weather conditions through this
weekend. Gusty winds and locally heavy rain are possible along the Outer
Banks of North Carolina and surrounding Mid-Atlantic coastline today due
to a rapidly deepening, but quickly exiting, low pressure system. Showers
and strong winds will be short-lived as the storm races eastward into the
open Atlantic by tonight, with breezy conditions remaining due to a tight
pressure gradient related to high pressure over the Great Lakes. A
separate storm system swinging into the Canadian Maritimes will produce
showers over parts of Maine, with a light glaze of freezing rain possible
today where temperatures hang just below the freezing mark. In between
these two system will remain a very dry and breezy Northeast, prompting an
additional few days of fire weather concerns. Conditions will remain ripe
for developing wildfires through at least Saturday thanks to a stiff
northwest breeze and low relative humidity, including major I-95 cities
between Philadelphia and Boston.By late this weekend the next rainmaker for the Southern Plains is
forecast to develop as an organizing low pressure system strengthens over
West Texas Sunday night. This system is then forecast to move
northeastward into Monday morning and spread numerous showers and
thunderstorms between the Texas Panhandle/North Texas to central Oklahoma.
Periods of heavy rain may lead to areas of flash flooding, especially in
urban and poor drainage locations. A few strong thunderstorms may also
have the potential to contain large hail, frequent lightning, and damaging
wind gusts.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
|
|
|
| 8–
14 |
|
|
| 3–
4 |
|
|
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
–
| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
