Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Oct 01 2023
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 01 2023 – 12Z Tue Oct 03 2023…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the east
coast of Florida on Sunday and over the Southern High Plains on Monday……There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern High Plains on Monday……Heavy snow over parts of the higher elevations of northeastern Utah…
| Notices: We just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and you can access that report HERE. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
On Sunday, tropical moisture and a lingering front over Florida will
produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the east coast of
Florida through Monday morning.The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.
The threat of excessive rainfall decreases on Monday over Florida.
However, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of Florida
through Tuesday morning.Meanwhile, an upper-level low over parts of the Great Basin and California
on Sunday will begin to weaken on Monday as the trough moves eastward to
the Rockies. Rain and, in some places, higher elevation snow will develop
over parts of the Great Basin into the Northern Intermountain Region and
California/the Great Basin through late Monday morning. Parts of
northeastern Utah will get heavy snow at higher elevations through Monday
evening.Moreover, the upper-level troughing will allow temperatures to be 10 to 20
degrees below average over parts of California, the Great Basin, the
Northern Intermountain Region, and the Northern Rockies. Furthermore,
upper-level ridging extending from the Gulf Coast to the Upper Great Lakes
will allow temperatures to be 15 to 25 degrees above normal over parts of
the Upper Midwest.In addition, an area of rain will move northward into the Northern
Rockies/Northern High Plains on Monday into Tuesday. Also, a weak front
will move over the Pacific Northwest and dissipate by Tuesday, creating
rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest on Monday.The front associated with the deep upper-level trough will move across the
Southern Rockies and Southern High Plains on Monday, producing showers and
severe thunderstorms over eastern New Mexico and western Texas. Therefore,
the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern High Plains from Monday into Tuesday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Additionally, showers
and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Northern/Central Plains
overnight Monday into Tuesday morning.Lastly, onshore flow off the Western Gulf of Mexico will aid in producing
showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Western Gulf Coast through
Tuesday.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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