Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Sep 15 2023
Valid 12Z Fri Sep 15 2023 – 12Z Sun Sep 17 2023…Lee continues tracking north, tropical storm and hurricane conditions
possible for coastal New England Friday and Saturday……Heavy rain and strong storms likely over the Southern Plains Friday…
…Dry conditions in the West with some much above average highs expected
for the Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies this weekend...
![[Key Messages]](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL132023_key_messages+png/054829_key_messages_sm.png)
| Notices: Recently we published an article on a court decision that relates to whether or not states can decline to store out-of-state nuclear waste and you can access that article HERE. It is part of a series of articles I am writing on nuclear waste storage which is a huge problem for the world and the U.S. and I urge readers to read this court decision.
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First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
Hurricane Lee continues northward early this morning and will begin to
pass closer to New England by Friday evening. While the center of Lee is
currently forecast by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to track into
Nova Scotia, related-hazards are expected to extend well away from the
center due to the large size of the system. Hurricane conditions are
possible for portions of Downeast Maine closest to the forecast track for
Lee, with tropical storm conditions expected to extend further southwest
through coastal New Hampshire and Massachusetts. Heavy rainfall is also
forecast to overspread coastal New England and across Maine by Saturday
morning, with the greatest chance for some localized instances of flooding
in eastern Maine where a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) is
in place. In addition to high winds and heavy rain, swells generated by
Lee will continue to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions along the East Coast. Highs will be more Fall-like Friday and
Saturday across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic following a frontal
passage, with 60s and 70s forecast. Temperatures will be warmer but still
running a bit below average in the Southeast and Florida, with mostly 80s
forecast.Elsewhere, an upper-level wave will help to drive a pair of cold fronts
southeastward across portions of the Midwest and Central Plains, bringing
a chance for some showers and thunderstorms Friday through early Saturday.
Further south, a lingering quasi-stationary front along the Gulf Coast and
into the Southern Plains as well as pooling moisture will lead to more
widespread storm chances and heavier rainfall. A Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall is in place for west-central Texas Friday where some localized
flash flooding will be possible. In addition to heavy rain, the Storm
Prediction Center has included portions of the Southern High Plains in a
Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms (level 2/5) Friday as some of the
stronger storms may produce a few instances of large hail. Highs will be
generally seasonable across the Northern Plains and Midwest, ranging from
the 70s to low 80s, as well as into portions of the Southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley, with 80s expected. Highs will be much below
average for portions of the Central High Plains Friday, with some 60s in
the forecast, before conditions moderate back into the 70s by Saturday.The West is forecast to remain mostly dry to start the weekend as an
upper-level ridge moves in over the region. High temperatures Friday and
Saturday will be 10-20 degrees above average for the Pacific Northwest,
Northern Great Basin, and Northern Rockies, with 80s and even some low 90s
forecast. After some cooler temperatures in the 60s and 70s for the
southern Great Basin Friday following a frontal passage, highs are
expected to warm back up into the 80s by Saturday. Highs will generally be
running near average elsewhere in the West, with 60s and 70s for coastal
California, 80s and 90s for the central California Valleys, and 90s to low
100s for the Desert Southwest.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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