Updated at 5:18 p.m. March 31, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
432 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023Valid 00Z Sat Apr 01 2023 – 00Z Mon Apr 03 2023
…A major severe weather outbreak is forecast to continue into tonight
across portions of the Mississippi Valley……Winter Storm with Blizzard conditions from Northern Plains to Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes tonight……Heavy snow across northwestern mountains…
…Critical Fire Weather persists over parts of the Central/Southern
Plains for the next several days…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
We recently published the NOAA Four Season Outlook. You can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A deep upper-level trough will continue to trigger severe weather and
excessive rainfall across the Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys from Iowa to
Ohio down to eastern Texas tonight. The Storm Prediction Center recently
issued a High Risk of Severe Thunderstorms over portions of southeast
Iowa, west-central Illinois, far northeastern Missouri, and in parts of
eastern Arkansas, northern Mississippi and southwestern Tennessee. A few
long-track strong to potentially violent tornadoes are probable,
particularly over portions of the Mid-Mississippi Valley to Mid-South.
Damaging wind gusts and very large hail are expected as well. People in
these areas should remain vigilant and prepared to take emergency
precautions if necessary. Conditions should improve later tonight when the
line of convection moves into the Tennessee/Ohio Valley and Southeast.
Some thunderstorms produce heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding as
depicted by a Slight Risk area. Showers and thunderstorms will move into
the Eastern third of the country on Saturday. A Slight Risk of Severe
Thunderstorms is in effect for parts of the Northeast, Delaware as well as
the Southeast where damaging winds will be the main physical weather
concern. There’s a Marginal risk of flash flooding in the Southeast on
Saturday. Shortwave energy swinging through the Southern Plains will draw
up another round of Gulf moisture, renewing flash flooding concerns over
portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday that might be impacted
by rain and thunderstorms from the ongoing event.Simultaneously, a winter storm on te northern side of the mid-latitude
cyclone will dump heavy snow, strong winds and blizzard conditions from
southern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan
tonight. Between 6-12 inches of snow is expected with a quarter to half
inch of sleet and some freezing rain possible within the transition zones
on the southern periphery of the snow shield. The combination of heavy
snow, wind, freezing rain and sleet may cause issues to power and other
infrastructure tonight. Strong winds and Light to moderate snow will
linger over parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Saturday.A large upper-level low will spin into the Pacific Northwest tonight,
bringing a strong surface low pressure system into the region. Heavy snow
is likely to impact the Cascades and Northern Rockies this weekend as a
result. Between 1-3 feet is expected for the Northern Rockies while 2-4
feet are possible over the Cascades. All the while, dry and windy
conditions will support a Critical Fire Weather threat over portions of
southeastern Colorado, southwestern Kansas and western Oklahoma/Texas
tonight before shrinking a bit to encompass the Texas-New Mexico border
region this weekend into early next week. Warm temperatures in the East
will give way to cooler conditions following a strong cold frontal passage
on Saturday night. The West remains below average, while the
Northern/Central Plains and Midwest drop well below average beneath a
building area of high pressure.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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