Updated at 2:18 p.m. EDT Monday March 27, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2023Valid 00Z Tue Mar 28 2023 – 00Z Thu Mar 30 2023
…Heavy rain with the potential for flash flooding and severe weather
continues in the Southeast……Series of frontal systems increase precipitation chances for the
Northeast through Tuesday……Chilly temperatures and the chance for snow across portions of the
Plains and Great Lakes……Powerful storm system to bring yet another round of heavy snow/rainfall
to California with cooling temperatures…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
We recently published the NOAA Four Season Outlook. You can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A slowly-propagating cold frontal boundary currently located across
southern Alabama and central Georgia will slowly move across the southeast
over the next few days, triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms
along the boundary early this week. Anomalously high moisture continuing
to stream northward from the Gulf will help to induce heavy rain rates.
The quasi-stationary nature of the boundary may also lead to repeated,
overlapping storm development and motions, increasing the potential for
locations to see multiple rounds of heavy rain and higher rainfall totals.
A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect over the Florida
Panhandle and southeastern Alabama as these storms continue to produce
heavy rain over this region. Additionally, as a result of the moderate to
strongly buoyant airmass in place to the south of the boundary, there is
the potential for some storms to be severe. The Storm Prediction Center
has issued a Slight Risk for severe weather (level 2/5) over southern
Alabama and Georgia, with the primary severe threats being isolated
instances of strong winds and, with potential for isolated tornadoes. By
Tuesday, an upper-level shortwave will help to push a better organized
frontal system south towards the Gulf, helping to clear out the region and
create more progressive thunderstorms, limiting the severe flooding
threat. However, anomalously high moisture will still be present, helping
to retain the threat of higher rain rates and localized heavy rain. This
led to the upgrade to a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) from
the Central Gulf Coast east into southern Georgia and northern Florida.
High temperatures will generally cool from northwest to southeast through
the early portion of this week across the Southeast. Highs will cool into
the mid-60s to low 70s for most of the region Tuesday as the front finally
pushes southward into the Gulf. The Florida peninsula will still be warmer
than average on Tuesday, with temperatures in the mid-80s before the cold
front pushes through by Wednesday.The frontal system pushing through the South will also create
precipitation chances regionally for the Northeast. Light to moderate
showers are expected to clear out of the Mid-Atlantic as wintry
precipitation chances increase across the Interior Northeast. Little to no
accumulations of sleet/snow are expected, except for portions of higher
terrain across the Northeast. Highs will generally be seasonable for the
Interior Northeast/New England with 40s and 50s forecast through the early
portion of this week. Over the Midwest, energetic flow aloft will help to
encourage additional waves of low pressure along the Canadian front
trailing through the Great Lakes and into the Plains, increasing
precipitation chances for these regions as well. A few inches of
accumulating snow are forecast to move from the Central High Plains into
the Upper Great Lakes through Tuesday. On Wednesday, this frontal system
will push through the Great Lakes region and into the Interior Northeast
with embedded rain/snow showers and some lake-effect snow. Highs across
the Northern Plains and Midwest will generally be below average as high
temperatures remain in the 40s. Very chilly, much below average
temperatures are forecast for the Plains Monday with highs only in the 20s
and 30s. High temperatures will stay below average through Wednesday for
much of the northern Plains.Meanwhile, a powerful Pacific storm system will approach the West Coast
Monday night with anomalously high Pacific moisture quickly overspreading
southern portions of the Pacific Northwest and California ahead of an
occluded frontal boundary, bringing yet another round of heavy
coastal/lower elevation rain and mountain snow. The heaviest rainfall is
expected Tuesday along coastal Central California. A Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) is in effect along the terrain of the
coastal mountains, as incoming warmer air acts to raise snow levels and
increase the threat of runoff into downstream rivers, especially as the
entire region remains sensitive to the risk of flooding given very wet
antecedent conditions. Very heavy snow is forecast for higher elevations
of the northern Coastal Ranges and Sierra through Tuesday, with totals of
several feet possible. In addition to the precipitation, gusty winds are
also likely Monday along coastal California and the Sacramento Valley.
This system will remain progressive, and moisture will quickly spread
further inland into the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin on Tuesday. A
mix of rain and snow is expected for lower elevation valley locations with
accumulating snow for the Cascades, Blue Mountains of Oregon, and Sawtooth
Range of Idaho. On Wednesday, precipitation will then spread further into
the Great Basin, with chances of moderate accumulating snow over the
Monitor Range of Nevada as well as mountainous regions of Utah. Despite a
brief period of upper-level ridging expected on Tuesday, high temperatures
will continue to be below average for most of the West through Wednesday.
Highs will be in the 40s and 50s for the Great Basin and Northern/Central
Rockies; 50s and 60s for the Pacific Northwest, northern/central
California, and the Southern Rockies; and 70s to 80s for the Desert
Southwest. A strong frontal passage on Wednesday will reinforce cool
temperatures over portions of the West on Wednesday, cooling temperatures
back into the 40s and 50s across much of California and Nevada.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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