Updated at 3:35 p.m. Tuesday, February 28, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
235 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2023Valid 00Z Wed Mar 01 2023 – 00Z Fri Mar 03 2023
…Additional Heavy Snows through the Sierra and into the mountains of
Southern California tonight into Wednesday and across the Southwest
Wednesday into Thursday and across portions of the Southern to Central
High Plains on Thursday……Record Cold across Central to Southern California Wednesday…
…Record Warmth from the Gulf Coast into the Ohio Valley Wednesday and
along the Gulf Coast on Thursday……Heavy rains, isolated flash flooding and severe thunderstorms possible
late Wednesday night into early Thursday from the Lower Mississippi Valley
into the Tennessee Valley……Critical Fire weather risk across the Southern High Plains…
…Snows diminish across New England tonight, while heavy snows develop
across the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Lakes region
Tuesday night into Wednesday…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
To read the new NOAA Four-Season Outlook Click HERE . Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast (It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A very active weather pattern across nearly all of the Lower 48 over the
next few days with numerous hazardous weather conditions affecting large
portions of the nation. An overall amplifying mid to upper level flow
pattern will drive another strong storm southeastward along the west coast
Tuesday night into Wednesday, into the Southwest Wednesday and Thursday
and eastward into the Southern High Plains by Thursday evening. This next
strong storm will bring additional very heavy snowfall amounts of a 12-24
inches through the Sierra and into portions of the Transverse and
Peninsular Ranges of Southern California. These heavy snow amounts will
then translate downstream across the Mogollon Rim of Arizona, Wasatch of
Utah and San Juan’s of Colorado. In addition to the additional heavy snow
threat, record cold high temperatures are possible Wednesday across much
of Central to Southern California where high temperatures are expected to
be as much as 20 to 25 degrees below average.This strong storm affecting the west coast and Southwest, will be pushing
into the Southern High Plains on Thursday. Heavy snows may develop to the
north of this system from northeast New Mexico into southeast Colorado and
western Kansas. To the south of the area of heavy snows, windy and dry
conditions expected to persist across southeast New Mexico into Southwest
to West Texas. This will support critical fire weather conditions over
the next several days across these areas.In contrast to the record cold over California, record warmth is likely
Wednesday across a large region from the Gulf Coast, northeastward into
the Ohio Valley and again along the Gulf Coast on Thursday. Across these
areas high temperatures will be 20 to 30 degrees above average, with high
temperatures possible eclipsing 100 degrees across far South Texas
Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.A west to east oriented frontal boundary between the much above average
temperatures across the southern tier of the nation and cooler
temperatures farther to the north will become the focus for heavy rains,
isolated flash flooding and severe thunderstorms late Wednesday into
Thursday from portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee
Valley.
Portions of this region have seen above average precipitation amounts over
the past few weeks, increasing soil moisture, stream flows and
subsequently the risk of flash flooding from the expected heavy rains.The storm system that brought widespread heavy snows across the Northeast
over the past 24 hours will be winding down Tuesday night as it pushes
through New England and into the Canadian Maritimes. A new area of heavy
snow potential will be developing upstream across the Northern Plains from
this afternoon into Tuesday night, spreading eastward into the Upper
Mississippi Valley and Upper Lakes region on Wednesday. Snowfall
accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible from southern North Dakota, far
northern South Dakota, across central to northern Minnesota, northern
Wisconsin and across the U.P. of Michigan. This system will then bring
the potential for additional snows for northern New England across
northern Vermont, northern New Hampshire and northern Maine, with
accumulations of 4+ inches possible.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.-
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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