This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed May 08 2024
Valid 12Z Wed May 08 2024 – 12Z Fri May 10 2024…There is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday and over
parts of the Southern Plains on Thursday……There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday and a Slight Risk of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley on
Thursday……Heavy snow over the higher elevations of the Northern Rockies on
Wednesday…A front extending from the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday will move
eastward off the Northeast Coast overnight Wednesday. In addition, a wave
of low pressure over parts of the Central/Southern Plains will move
eastward to the Ohio Valley by Thursday, and then the northern half of the
boundary will move off the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Friday morning.
Furthermore, a part of the boundary lingers over parts of the Southeast
and Central Gulf Coast also on Friday.As the wave advances to the Middle Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, it
will bring showers and severe thunderstorms, mainly over parts of southern
Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwestern Tennessee.
The SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms
over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Middle Mississippi Valley
through Thursday morning. The potential hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes. There will be the added threat of EF2 to EF5
tornadoes over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley and the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Moreover, there will be an additional threat of
hail two inches or greater and severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots
over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley,
and Southern Plains.Furthermore, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over
north-central Tennessee and northwestern Kentucky. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Thursday morning. The associated heavy
rain will create numerous areas of flash flooding. Furthermore, many
streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers. Additionally,
showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Northeast,
Northern Plains, and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley on Wednesday.On Thursday, the threat of severe thunderstorms continues from the
Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast and westward to the Southern Plains. The
threat of severe thunderstorms will be the highest over parts of eastern
Texas. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains from Thursday
through Friday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. Moreover, there will be an increased threat of two inches of
hail over eastern Texas.Further, the showers and thunderstorms will cause heavy rain to develop
over parts of eastern Texas, northern Louisiana, and central Mississippi
Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley from
Thursday into Friday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Additionally, showers
and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Central Plains/Middle
Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Moreover, moderate to heavy rain will also
develop over parts of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast, with a
secondary max over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley.Meanwhile, upper-level energy over the Northern Rockies will produce rain
and higher-elevation snow over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies from
Wednesday to Friday. On Wednesday, the system will produce heavy snow over
parts of the Northern Rockies.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports
New Feature – Ski Reports. It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every Econcurrents Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.
Snow Forecasts. And remember this shows natural snow. Ski resorts also make their own snow.
Day 1
Day 2
Additional snow information can be found here, here, here, and here. The second link provides animations.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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14 |
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4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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