Accuweather Southern Plains Tornado Update HERE.
It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024Valid 00Z Sun Apr 28 2024 – 00Z Tue Apr 30 2024
…More rounds of excessive rainfall and severe weather expected to push
eastward across the southern Plains tonight reaching into lower
Mississippi Valley on Monday……Snow over central Colorado gradually tapers off tonight but
high-elevation snow is forecast to spread inland from the Pacific
Northwest into the northern Rockies on Monday……Critical Fire Weather Risk over portions of the Southern High Plains…
…Warmer than average temperatures spreads from Midwest into Mid-Atlantic
on Sunday while well below average temperatures shift from the Four
Corners and Rockies into the Northern Plains…More active and unsettled weather is forecast to continue across the
mid-section of the country through the remainder of the weekend into
Monday. Multiple disturbances embedded within a slow-moving upper-level
trough responsible for the active weather are currently developing another
low pressure system over the central Plains. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected to erupt in the warm and unstable air ahead of the low
pressure system east of a dry line from northern Texas through central
Oklahoma into eastern Kansas. A moderate risk of severe weather is
forecast through tonight per the Storm Prediction Center with the
possibility of large hail, damaging winds and multiple tornadoes. In
addition to the severe weather, intense rainfall rates are expected to
accompany these thunderstorms at times, leading to a moderate to locally
high potential of flash flooding to occur in these areas through tonight.
By Sunday, the main area of thunderstorms will push farther eastward
toward the mid- and lower Mississippi Valley with a slightly lower threat
of severe weather. Meanwhile, the heaviest rains should push farther
southeast into the ArkLaTex region as the trailing cold front associated
with the low pressure system begins to weaken. The center of the low is
forecast to track northeast across the central Plains on Sunday, reaching
into the upper Midwest on Monday. Strong to locally severe thunderstorms
can be expected to extend northeast across these areas including the
Midwest ahead of a warm front to the east of the low pressure center.
Meanwhile, the threat of heavy rain will push farther southeast into the
lower to mid-Mississippi Valley as the cold front pushes eastward.Meanwhile, snow on the backside of the low pressure system is forecast to
gradually taper off tonight over central Colorado, and so will the areas
of mixed rain/snow extending into the Four-Corners as the system moves
farther away into the central Plains. Meanwhile, another low pressure
system will begin to move away from the Great Lakes into Canada with
scattered showers ending over the upper Great Lakes but continuing from
the lower Great Lakes into New England. Strong southerly flow behind a
high pressure system will bring very warm air northward into the East
Coast through the next couple of days with high temperatures climbing well
into the 80s to possibly near 90 degrees for the interior Mid-Atlantic.
These temperatures will be in contrast to the cool temperatures expected
for the Pacific Northwest by Monday as the next upper-level trough from
the Pacific is forecast to push inland. This trough will bring widespread
high-elevation snow and lower elevation rain across the Pacific Northwest
toward the northern Rockies on Monday with increasingly windy conditions
as a low pressure system begins to develop over the northern High Plains
into southern Canada. Meanwhile, dry and warm winds sinking down the
southern Rockies will continue to keep a critical fire weather risk over
the southern High Plains.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports
New Feature – Ski Reports. It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every Econcurrents Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.
Snow Forecasts. And remember this shows natural snow. Ski resorts also make their own snow.
Day 1
Day 2
Additional snow information can be found here, here, here, and here. The second link provides animations.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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14 |
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4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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