This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the highlights from the NWS.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Jan 12 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 12 2024 – 12Z Sun Jan 14 2024…Major winter storm to bring heavy snow and blizzard conditions to the
Midwest/Great Lakes as well as more heavy rain, coastal flooding, and
severe weather for the Southeast/East Coast……Dangerously cold Arctic Air spreads southward through the Heartland
heading into the weekend……Moderate to heavy snowfall for the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and
Northern Rockies, including snowfall for lower elevations…
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.
| Notices: The article on the Updated Outlook for January 2924 can be accessed HERE. What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
Our weather pattern continues to be extremely active through the weekend
under the influence of an energetic jet stream with a pair of storm
systems traversing the country. The first of these storms is located over
the Southern Plains, and is rapidly deepening as it tracks to the
northeast into the Midwest. Ahead of a series of cold fronts associated
with this system, widespread showers and thunderstorms are spreading into
the Mississippi Valley with Gulf moisture streaming northward, where the
Storm Prediction Center continues to closely monitor this activity for an
Enhanced Risk of severe weather (level 3/5) overnight for a risk of
damaging winds, large hail, and possibly a strong tornado focused over the
ArkLaTex region. An additional Enhanced Risk of severe weather is in place
beginning this morning over portions of the central Gulf Coast states
where significant damaging wind gusts are the foremost concern, although
threat for a few tornadoes is present. Further to the northeast, the
poleward advance of Gulf Moisture will lead to yet another round of heavy
rain stretching northward into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.
While rainfall amounts between 1-2″ will likely be less than the previous
event this week, saturated ground conditions as well as higher than normal
stream/river levels due to snowmelt could lead to scattered flash flooding
flooding, particularly for urban areas, where a Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall (level 2/4) is in effect. In addition to the severe weather and
heavy rain, very gusty winds as well as coastal flooding, particularly
from the Mid-Atlantic into New England, will once again be a concern.Meanwhile, impacts continue within the colder air to the northwest of the
system track as a swath of moderate to heavy snow is forecast to spread
from the Missouri Valley towards the Great Lakes today. Through Saturday
night, over a foot of snowfall is likely across portions of Wisconsin and
Michigan, which will combine with gusty winds upwards of 40 to 50 mph to
produce blizzard conditions and near impossible travel. Even as the system
pulls away, continued cold and gusty northwesterly flow over the Great
Lakes will also lead to blowing lake-effect snow in favorable locations
downwind of the Great Lakes, including into the Lower Great Lakes by
Saturday. Additional moderate to locally heavy snowfall is also expected
Saturday into the Interior Northeast/northern New England.The storms and winter weather are yet only the first part of the story as
a surge of Arctic air into the Heartland in the storm system’s wake.
Bitterly cold temperatures in the Northern Plains will spill into the
Central Plains today, and reach the Mississippi Valley/Southern Plains
Saturday, leading to numerous daily record cold temperatures through this
weekend. Temperatures will remain below zero for the Northern Plains
starting this morning, with highs only into the single digits for the
Central Plains by Saturday. Record low temperatures in the -20s, -30s, and
even approaching 40 below are forecast for the Northern Plains Saturday
morning. The widespread, gusty winds will factor in here as well, leading
to dangerously cold wind chills as low as -35 to -50 for parts of the
Northern Plains and as low as -15 to -30 into the Central Plains. Wind
chills of this nature can lead to frostbite on exposed skin within
minutes. Later this weekend into next week, snow is also likely on the
periphery of the advancing Arctic air mass from the interior South into
the Mid-Atlantic.Upstream over the West, the frigid Arctic air settling in behind the cold
front will lower snow levels in time for the arrival of a second storm
system along the West Coast, ultimately leading to heavy snowfall and
considerable impacts across the West today and tomorrow which includes
lower elevation areas including Portland, Boise, and Salt Lake City.
Freezing rain is also likely Saturday over western Oregon. In advance of
this wintry weather, a swath of Winter Storm Warnings and Watches extend
across much of the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports
New Feature – Ski Reports. It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every Econcurrents Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.
Snow Forecasts. And remember this shows natural snow. Ski resorts also make their own snow.
Day 1
Day 2
Additional snow information can be found here and here. The second link provides animations.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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14 |
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4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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