This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the highlights from the NWS.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Jan 9 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 9 2024 – 12Z Thu Jan 11 2024…Major storm system will hammer the Eastern U.S. with widespread heavy
rain, strong winds, and severe thunderstorms on Tuesday into early
Wednesday……Unsettled weather conditions continue for the Western U.S. with much
colder temperatures arriving for the Northern Plains…
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.
| Notices: The article on the Updated Outlook for January 2924 can be accessed HERE. What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
A very potent mid-upper level trough over the Central U.S. is becoming
negatively tilted and this is allowing for rapid surface cyclogenesis over
the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. The result will likely be a
sub-980 mb surface low over Michigan by late Tuesday evening/night, and
this low will continue lifting toward the northeast across southern
Ontario and into Quebec by Wednesday afternoon. A strong cold front
trailing south from the parent low will exit the East Coast overnight
Tuesday across the Mid-Atlantic and into early Wednesday morning for the
Northeast U.S.Widespread hazardous weather impacts are expected for the eastern third of
the U.S. in association with this low pressure system, and numerous
warnings and advisories are now in effect from the local NWS forecast
offices. One of the big things making weather headlines will be the
widespread expanse of heavy rain capable of producing flooding from the
Florida Panhandle all the way north to southern Maine. There is a
Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall now highlighted by the Weather
Prediction Center for the Tuesday-Tuesday night time period from northern
Virginia to southern New England, where the combination of 1 to 3 inch
rainfall totals over highly saturated, and in some cases snow covered
ground, along with swollen creeks and streams, will elevate the potential
for flooding across this region. Another major issue that is quite
concerning is the powerful 850 mb low level jet that will be in place just
ahead of the cold front as it approaches the East Coast, with southerly
winds 75 to 100 mph just a few thousand feet above the surface. At the
surface, this will likely result in widespread 30-50 mph winds, especially
near the coast and for elevated areas where gusts will likely exceed 50
mph. Inland areas that have more of a surface temperature inversion will
get less of this wind energy from aloft mixing down, but still breezy
nonetheless. Therefore, high wind warnings are in effect for many areas
near the coast and storm warnings for the open waters, and power outages
are a real possibility. This will also cause instances of coastal
flooding where strong onshore flow piles up water into rivers and bays.
Severe thunderstorms are also expected from northern Florida to the
coastal plain of the Carolinas, where a favorable combination of
kinematics and instability will fuel intense storms capable of producing
damaging winds and tornadoes.Conditions should slowly improve going into Wednesday in the wake of this
intense storm system across the Eastern U.S., although it will still be
rather breezy with west to northwesterly flow, and snow showers for the
western Great Lakes and the eastern Ohio Valley. A weaker low pressure
system approaches the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region on Wednesday
into Thursday morning, but it will not have much moisture to work with, so
mainly light snow is expected with that event.For the Western U.S., the weather pattern will also be active with a
strong Pacific front moving inland with very heavy snow for the Cascades
and then across the Northern Rockies with snow levels dropping over time.
By Wednesday night, a second disturbance moves inland across the Desert
Southwest and this brings valley rain and mountain snow across Arizona and
New Mexico. Meanwhile, an arctic front drops southward from Canada on
Wednesday and this will herald the arrival of the coldest temperatures so
far this season for the Northern Plains, with subzero lows becoming a
reality for Montana and North Dakota, and this cold airmass will continue
settling southward through the end of the week. The combination of this
front and the storm system from the southwestern U.S. will eventually
result in a much larger low pressure system developing over the Southern
Plains by the end of the week.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports
New Feature – Ski Reports. It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every Econcurrents Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.
Snow Forecasts. And remember this shows natural snow. Ski resorts also make their own snow.
Day 1
Day 2
Additional snow information can be found here and here. The second link provides animations.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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14 |
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4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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