This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
We start with the U.S. Information. That is the longest part of the article. Then we have a short section on World Weather and then we address the Tropics. When there are tropical storms that might impact the U.S. we provide more detailed information which updates frequently on those storms.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report as I have moved the highlights into the body of the report where it is followed by the Today, Tomorrow and the Next Day maps and a lot more. I will try to feature the most important graphic in the lede paragraph on the home page. But there are often multiple maps that are very important so it is best to read the full article. We now have a snow report and it is possible to get a ten-day NWS forecast for the zip code of your choice.
| Notices: We recently published a review of October weather worldwide and you can access that article HERE. And a review of October weather for the U.S. which you can access HERE. We have now published the NOAA Seasonal Update which you can access HERE. This was followed up with the update of the Mid-December Outlook which you can access HERE. What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
First the highlights from the NWS.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Dec 17 2023
Valid 12Z Sun Dec 17 2023 – 12Z Tue Dec 19 2023…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic into New England on Sunday and over Northern New England on
Monday……There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
southern Mid-Atlantic Coast on Sunday……Lake-effect snow downwind of the Great Lakes and upslope snow over
parts of the Northern/Central through Tuesday…
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
A strong storm is moving onshore over the northeastern portion of the Gulf
Coast of Florida. The area of low pressure will deepen rapidly while
moving northeastward to the southern Mid-Atlantic Coast by Sunday evening.
The major system will start to produce showers and thunderstorms over
parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic Coast northward to New England.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Mid-Atlantic into New England through Monday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.In addition, the storm will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over
the southern Mid-Atlantic Coast. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight
Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of eastern North Carolina and the
eastern Southern Carolina Coast through Monday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, few tornadoes, and a minimal threat of hail.On Monday the storm will move from northward into Eastern Canada by Monday
evening. The threat of excessive rainfall moves northward in Northern New
England. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall
over parts of Northern New England from Monday through Tuesday morning.
The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.The threat of severe thunderstorms decreases slightly on Monday. There is
a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of New England from
Monday through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, and
a minimal threat of hail and tornadoes.Meanwhile, upper-level energy over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley will
produce light to moderate snow over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley
and moderate to heavy snow over the western portion of the Upper Peninsula
of Michigan from Sunday evening into Monday. In addition, lake-effect snow
will develop downwind of the Great Lakes and upslope snow over parts of
the Northern/Central Appalachians on Monday into Tuesday. The heaviest
snow will be over parts of the Central Appalachians.Furthermore, a front moving onshore over the West Coast on Monday will
produce rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest and California Coast on
Monday into Tuesday morning.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports
New Feature – Ski Reports. It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every Econcurrents Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.
Snow Forecasts. And remember this shows natural snow. Ski resorts also make their own snow.
Day 1
Day 2
Additional snow information can be found here and here. The second link provides animations.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
|
|
|
| 8–
14 |
|
|
| 3–
4 |
|
|
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
–
| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
–
