Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
408 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023
Valid 00Z Sun Sep 24 2023 – 00Z Tue Sep 26 2023…There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley……There are two areas of Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Mid-Atlantic and second over the Southern Plain and Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley…
…Tropical Storm OPHELIA is forecast to slowly move northward over the
Mid-Atlantic, then northeastward over the Western Atlantic before
dissipating……Air Quality Alerts over parts of Central California…
| Notices: We just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and you can access that report HERE. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
Tropical Storm OPHELIA is forecast to slowly move northward over the
Mid-Atlantic, then northeastward over the Western Atlantic before
dissipating by Monday evening. OPHELIA will produce heavy rain over parts
of the Mid-Atlantic through Sunday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Mid-Atlantic through
Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create numerous areas of
flash flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood, potentially affecting
larger rivers.On Sunday, the area of heavy rain will shift northeastward over parts of
New England and Northern Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of northern Mid-Atlantic and
Southern New England from Sunday into Monday morning. The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.By Monday morning, OPHELIA will move out over the Western Atlantic and
slowly dissipate by Monday night. Rain associated with OPHELIA will
gradually taper off over the Northern Mid-Atlantic and Southern New
England on Monday.Meanwhile, a front extending from the Northern Plains/Middle Mississippi
Valley into the Central/Southern Plains will slowly move eastward to the
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley into the Lower Mississippi Valley and
Southern Plains by Monday morning. The system will produce heavy rain from
parts of the Upper Midwest into the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi
Valley, with the heaviest rain over parts of Central/Southern Plains and
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate
Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley through Sunday morning. The associated
heavy rain will create numerous areas of flash flooding. Furthermore, many
streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers.Furthermore, an area of showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over
parts of southeastern Kansas, west-central Missouri, and northeastern
Oklahoma. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe
thunderstorms over the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there is an increased
threat of hail two inches or greater over parts of the region.On Sunday, as the southern end of the front moves eastward, showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain will develop over parts of the Southern
Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of Southern
Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley from Sunday into Monday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.The boundary will also produce showers and severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Southern Plains and a small section of the Lower Mississippi
Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains and a small section of the
Lower Mississippi Valley from Sunday through Monday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.Lastly, smoke from wildfires in California will reduce air quality over
parts of Central California, prompting Air Quality Warnings over the area.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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