Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Sep 12 2023
Valid 12Z Tue Sep 12 2023 – 12Z Thu Sep 14 2023…Cool, wet weather with heavy rainfall and flooding possible across the
Southwest and southern Plains……More heavy rain and possible flooding expected across the Northeast….
…Dangerous surf and rip current conditions developing along the East
Coast…
| Notices: Recently we published an article on a court decision that relates to whether or not states can decline to store out-of-state nuclear waste and you can access that article HERE. It is part of a series of articles I am writing on nuclear waste storage which is a huge problem for the world and the U.S. and I urge readers to read this court decision.
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First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
Cool, wet weather is expected from the Southwest to the southern Plains,
with locally heavy rainfall amounts and flooding possible. A cold front
will continue to sink south across the southern Plains and lower
Mississippi Valley today. Meanwhile, increasing moisture, including
remnant moisture from what was tropical cyclone Jova, is expected to
interact with a series of weak upper level disturbances to support shower
and thunderstorm development across the region through midweek. Some of
these storms may produce locally heavy rains, with flash flooding
possible, especially in vulnerable areas where rapid runoff is likely. A
greater threat for heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding is expected
to center over southeastern Arizona and southern New Mexico today, before
shifting farther east into the southern High Plains on Wednesday.Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms will move along the leading edge of
the cooler air as it advances from the Midwest into the eastern U.S. As
subtropical moisture begins to surge north ahead of the front, the threat
for heavy rain is forecast to increase as it moves into the Northeast
beginning late Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday. Heavy rains that do
occur may produce flooding, especially across areas impacted by heavy
amounts earlier this week.High pressure will settle in behind the front, with dry conditions
expected across much of the Midwest Wednesday into Thursday. Across
portions of the upper Midwest, temperatures are expected to drop near
freezing Wednesday morning — prompting frost advisories for parts of
northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin.Although Hurricane Lee remains well offshore, dangerous surf and rip
currents are impacting portions of the southeastern U.S. coast. As the
storm turns north, these conditions are forecast to spread northward along
much of the East Coast over the next couple of days.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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