Updated at 5:10 p.m. EDT June 18, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
415 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2023Valid 00Z Mon Jun 19 2023 – 00Z Wed Jun 21 2023
…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Western
Ohio, Tennessee, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valleys, and Southeast on Sunday
evening that will migrate eastward to Southern Appalachians and southern
Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday……There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/Central Gulf Coast on Sunday;
Sight Risk of Severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast/Central
Gulf Coast on Monday...…Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over the Central and
Western Gulf Coast…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.Tonight we published the NOAA Four Season Outlook To read it, click HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
Upper-level energy over the Middle Mississippi and Western Ohio Valleys
and a weak front in much of the south-central and southeastern parts of
the country, plus high moisture values, will produce showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi
Valley, Tennessee Valley, Central Gulf Coast, and Southeast. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, Central Gulf Coast, and
Southeast through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and
small streams the most vulnerable.Moreover, a front over Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the far
western Florida Panhandle will create showers and severe thunderstorms
over the area. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee
Valley, and Central Gulf Coast through Monday morning. Furthermore, there
is an increased threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or
greater over the area.On Monday, the threat of excessive rainfall moves eastward to the
southeastern parts of the country. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southeast, southern
Mid-Atlantic, and Southern Appalachians from Monday into Tuesday morning.
The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.In addition, as the front moves eastward, the showers and severe
thunderstorms move east. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Appalachians and southern
Mid-Atlantic from Monday into Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.By Tuesday, showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will move into the
southeastern portion of the country. Therefore, on Tuesday, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic. The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
and small streams the most vulnerable. Additionally, the threat of severe
thunderstorms reduces to a Marginal Risk over the Central Gulf Coast to
parts of the Southeast.Furthermore, upper-level ridging, high temperatures, and temperatures not
cooling off much overnight have contributed to Excessive Heat Warnings and
Heat Advisories over the Central and Western Gulf Coast.Elsewhere, a deep upper-level low will move over the Northwest, creating
scattered rain showers over parts of the Northwest into the Northern
Rockies from Sunday evening into Tuesday.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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