Updated at 4:08 p.m. EDT Sunday, May 14, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
403 PM EDT Sun May 14 2023Valid 00Z Mon May 15 2023 – 00Z Wed May 17 2023
…Above-normal temperatures to spread from the western into the central
U.S. early this week……Additional heavy rain and flooding possible for parts of the southern
Plains and mid Mississippi Valley into Monday……Heavy rainfall threat moving east into the lower Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys on Tuesday…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Recently, we published the NOAA ENSO Update. You can access it HERE. It announces the coming of a full El Nino. There remain questions about how strong it will be. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
Above-normal temperatures are forecast to persist along the West Coast
through the period while extending across the Intermountain West and into
the Rockies early this week. For many locations, daytime temperatures
will reach 10-20 degrees above normal on both Monday and Tuesday. While a
weak area of low pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere may
provide some relief and an increasing chance for showers and
thunderstorms, high temperatures may once again exceed their daily records
for parts of the Pacific Northwest, including the Seattle and Portland
metro regions, on Monday.Energy in the upper levels of the atmosphere interacting with a moist
airmass will continue to produce areas of showers and thunderstorms
through this evening into Monday across the central and southern Plains
and mid Mississippi Valley. Some of these storms may become strong to
severe, producing large hail damaging winds, as well as heavy to excessive
rainfall.High pressure to the north will support above-normal temperatures across
the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Monday, that will extend farther
south on Tuesday.By early Tuesday, an area of low pressure is expected to strengthen and
move east through the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valley regions. While
drier conditions are expected for much of the central Plains and mid
Mississippi Valley, the threat for heavy rain is likely to increase across
parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys into the southern
Appalachians on Tuesday.It will be another cold morning on Monday across the Great Lakes and
Northeast, with frost advisories in effect for parts of northern Lower
Michigan, Upstate New York, northern Pennsylvania, Vermont, and New
Hampshire. A Freeze Warning is effect for parts of northern Lower
Michigan as well. Temperatures are expected to rebound before a strong
cold front drops into the region on Tuesday.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
6 –
10
8 –
14
3 –
4
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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I hope you found this article interesting and useful. –
