Updated at 4:29 p.m. EDT Thursday, March 30, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
322 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2023Valid 00Z Fri Mar 31 2023 – 00Z Sun Apr 02 2023
…A major early spring storm to bring multiple hazardous impacts across
large sections of the Lower 48……Heavy snow and significant ice accumulations likely across portions of
the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great
Lakes……Severe weather threat through the Middle to Lower Mississippi Valley,
Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley……Heavy rains and flash flooding possible across the Ohio Valley, Lower
Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley……Critical Fire Weather threat, high winds and blowing sand likely across
the Southern High Plains…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
We recently published the NOAA Four Season Outlook. You can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A storm system across the Central Plains Thursday afternoon will be
strengthening as it pushes northeast through the Upper Mississippi Valley
and into the Upper Great Lakes Friday into Saturday. This major early
spring storm will have multiple hazardous impacts associated with it,
stretching from the Great Lakes, through the Mississippi Valley, Ohio
Valley, Tennessee Valley and into the Southern Plains. Heavy snows and
significant icing are likely from portions of the Northern Plains, east
northeastward through the Upper Mississippi Valley and into the Upper
Great Lakes region. Snowfall accumulations in excess of a foot possible
across central to northeastern South Dakota, northeast Wisconsin into
large portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, while ice accumulations
of .10 to .25 inch are possible from far eastern South Dakota, through
central Minnesota and across northern Wisconsin. In addition to the heavy
snow and ice potential, strong winds with gusts over 50 mph will produce
blizzard conditions from portions of the Northern Plains into the Upper
Great Lakes with very hazardous travel conditions likely.To the south of the heavy snow and ice threat regions, several rounds of
rainfall are likely to push from west to east through the Lower to Middle
Mississippi Valley and Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Large portions of
these regions have seen much above average rainfall over the past few
weeks, resulting in above average stream flows and soil saturation levels.
Flash flooding will be a concern across these areas as locally heavy
rainfall amounts are likely over the next two days.In addition to the heavy rains and flash flooding threat, an organized
area of thunderstorms are likely to develop Friday afternoon across the
Middle to Lower Mississippi Valley along and ahead of a strong front
pushing across these regions. These thunderstorms are then expected to
push quickly through the Mid West, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Friday
evening/Friday night. Severe weather will be a significant threat from
these thunderstorms with tornadoes, large hail and high winds possible.On the far south side of the developing Northern Plains to Upper Great
Lakes storm, strengthening winds and dry conditions will produce critical
fire weather condition over the next two days across much of the Southern
High Plains. Red Flag warnings and high wind warnings are currently in
effect from eastern New Mexico, across West Texas, much of Oklahoma,
southern and western Kansas and southeast Colorado. Wind gusts across
these regions are likely to be greater than 50 miles per hour. In
addition to supporting wild fire conditions, these wind gusts will also
produce areas of blowing sand with dust storm warnings also in effect
across portions of the Southern High Plains. The combination of high
winds and reduced visibility from blowing sand will result in very
hazardous travel conditions.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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