Updated at 5: 55 p.m. EDT Sunday March 26, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
402 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2023Valid 00Z Mon Mar 27 2023 – 00Z Wed Mar 29 2023
…Heavy rain with the potential for flash flooding and severe weather
expected through tonight in the Southeast……Series of frontal systems to bring light to moderate precipitation
chances to the Midwest and Northeast……Snow chances linger over the Rockies as temperatures across the West
remain chilly……Powerful storm system to carry heavy snow/rainfall threat to California
beginning Monday…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
We also just published the NOAA Four Season Outlook. You can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. Some might find the USGS ARkStorm Scenario Interesting. Click HERE to read. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
Gulf moisture will continue to flow northward over a quasi-stationary
front draped across the Southeast helping to fuel widespread shower and
thunderstorms tonight into Monday. The anomalously high moisture in the
low levels will support moderate to strong CAPE values increasing the
potential for heavy rain rates of 1″+ per hour. In addition, the
quasi-stationary nature of the front will lead to the risk for repeated,
overlapping storm development and motions that will contribute to heavier
rainfall accumulations, with totals between 2-4″, locally higher,
possible. A Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 3/4) has been
issued across portions of central Alabama to Georgia where the favorable
conditions for heavy rainfall are most likely to contribute to the risk
for instances of flash flooding. The moderate to strong CAPE values as
well as strong winds aloft and strengthening low-level shear will also
lead to the potential some of these storms will be severe. The Storm
Prediction Center has outlined a Moderate Risk of Severe Weather (level
4/5) from central Louisiana east through south-central Mississippi and
central Alabama where supercell thunderstorms may produce a few strong
tornadoes and very large hail. Shower and thunderstorm chances will
continue into Monday, focusing more towards the Gulf Coast as the front
begins to shift southward. The more progressive motion of the front as
well as weaker winds aloft will keep the risk for flash flooding and
severe weather lower than Sunday, with a Slight Risk of Severe Weather
across portions of southern Georgia into far southern South Carolina. High
temperatures will generally be above average across the South on Monday,
with mid-70s to low 80s forecast. Conditions will be a bit warmer south of
the quasi-stationary front and shower activity, with highs in the upper
80s to low 90s in Florida. Things cool down across much of the Southeast
on Tuesday after the cold front pushes through. Weak shortwave energy may
spawn a surface wave along the central Gulf Coast on Tuesday, leading to
the renewed potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding along across
region.A frontal system pushing eastward across the Midwest will bring light
showers to the Ohio Valley and a light wintry mix to portions of the Upper
Midwest and Lower Great Lakes tonight. Upper level energy will help to
better organize an area of low pressure associated with the
quasi-stationary front to the south, with the system pushing northeastward
into the Mid-Atlantic. Light to moderate rain showers are forecast for
coastal locations of the region Monday, with a wintry mix further
northwest over the Interior Northeast. Highs will generally be seasonable
for New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic, with 40s and 50s expected.
Temperatures moderate across the Mid-Atlantic beginning on Monday.A frontal boundary lingering along the Northern/Central Rockies with
general upslope flow will keep snow chances up across the region the next
couple of days. Locally heavy snowfall will continue over higher
elevations in the Northern Rockies, with an additional 6-12″ possible
through Monday afternoon. Higher elevations in the mountains of the Great
Basin and Central Rockies will also see additional snowfall accumulations.
Snow chances have come up Monday across portions of the Central High
Plains as the front pushes further into the region. Meanwhile, a powerful
Pacific storm system will begin to approach the West Coast on Monday.
Moisture spreading inland will significantly increase precipitation
chances across northern California and the Pacific Northwest. Moderate to
locally heavy rainfall will be possible along the coast, with locally
heavy snow beginning for the northern coastal Ranges of California and the
southern half of the Cascades. Heavy rain and snow will continue to
overspread the region Tuesday. Persistent mean troughing aloft will keep
temperatures much below average across the West. Highs will range from the
30s and 40s for the Great Basin and Northern/Central Rockies, the 40s and
50s for the Pacific Northwest/northern California and the Southern
Rockies, and the upper 50s to low 70s for southern California and the
Desert Southwest.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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