Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
444 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023Valid 00Z Sun Mar 26 2023 – 00Z Tue Mar 28 2023
…Heavy snow winds down over Great Lakes then picks up over northern New
England; snow continues over Northern Rockies……Rain and severe thunderstorms expected from Mississippi to Carolinas
through beginning of work week……Powerful storm system to bring unsettled weather to West Coast
beginning Monday……Cold in the West warm in the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic; Critical Fire
Weather for the Central/Southern Plains…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
We also just published the NOAA Four Season Outlook. You can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. Some might find the USGS ARkStorm Scenario Interesting. Click HERE to read. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A dynamic low pressure system that has already dumped several inches of
snow over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes will move into Ontario and Quebec
tonight. Snow will wind down over the Midwest while picking up in
intensity over northern Maine and the higher elevations of Vermont/New
Hampshire tonight. The heavy snow should persist through much of the day
tomorrow before wrapping up. Between 4-8 inches are expected over much of
northern Maine with locally higher accumulations possible. Showers and
thunderstorms are likely across the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast
tonight before clearing out by Sunday morning. Elsewhere, persistent
troughing, cold air and a present stationary front will generate heavy
snow over the mountains of central Iowa, southwestern Montana and northern
Wyoming over the next couple of days.A quasi-stationary front draped across the Southeast will be the focus for
repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorm activity over the next few
days. Some convective cells may cause isolated flash flooding over
portions of central Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia tomorrow, but the
risk remains marginal at this time. The main threat from this setup will
be the potential for severe weather along the stalled out front. Slight
Risks of severe thunderstorms are in effect for portions of Alabama and
southern Georgia tonight due to the risk of isolated large hail and
damaging winds associated with any severe storms. The threat of severe
thunderstorms becomes more scattered by Sunday when supercells producing
large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible from
Louisiana to the Carolina coast. An Enhanced risk area was highlighted by
the Storm Prediction Center for parts of eastern Louisiana through
central-southern Mississippi/Alabama.Meanwhile, a deep positively tilted upper trough will rapidly intensify as
it glides down the west coast of North America. Despite the uncertainty
displayed by the guidance beyond 48 hours, the signal remains for some
sort of heavy rain/snow event to unfold across California early-to-middle
of next week.Temperatures should remain below average in the West due to broad
upper-level troughing. Meanwhile, semi-zonal flow with some embedded
shortwave energy should keep temperatures above average across the
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions over the next couple of days. Dry and
windy conditions support a critical fire weather area over portions of
southeastern Colorado down through the panhandles of Texas/Oklahoma
tonight. The critical fire area shifts southward into southeastern New
Mexico and western Texas on Sunday.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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