Updated at 4:59 p.m. EDT Friday, March 24, 2024
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
407 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2023Valid 00Z Sat Mar 25 2023 – 00Z Mon Mar 27 2023
…Flash flooding and severe weather threats across the Lower
Mississippi/Tennessee/Ohio Valleys tonight……Showers and thunderstorms for the East Coast, snow and a wintry mix for
the Midwest and Interior Northeast/New England this weekend……Unsettled weather and chilly temperatures with locally heavy mountain
snowfall to continue across the West…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
We also just published the NOAA Four Season Outlook. You can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. Some might find the USGS ARkStorm Scenario Interesting. Click HERE to read. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue/redevelop
along a quasi-stationary front through the Ohio Valley, as well as
southward ahead of a cold front pushing through the Lower Mississippi
Valley on today. Anomalously high moisture will continue to spread
northward from the Gulf of Mexico and pool along this quasi-stationary
boundary, helping to fuel heavy rain producing storms. There is a Moderate
Risk (level 3/4) of Excessive Rainfall in effect from northern Arkansas
northeastward into the Lower Ohio Valley overlapping a region where
repeated rounds of storms are forecast to produce additional rainfall
between 1-2 inches, locally higher, and lead to the risk of scattered to
widespread instances of flash flooding. In addition, very buoyant air with
moderate to strong CAPE values as well as strong low-level and upper-level
shear will lead to the risk for widespread severe weather. The Storm
Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/5) for a regional
outbreak of severe thunderstorms over the Lower Mississippi Valley with
hail, strong winds, and tornadoes, some strong, all anticipated. To the
west, strong, gusty winds behind the advancing cold front and very dry
conditions have also prompted a Critical Risk of Fire Weather from the
Storm Prediction Center over portions of the Southern High Plains through
Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms return to the Southeast/central Gulf
Coast on Sunday but the risks for excessive rainfall and severe
thunderstorms remain marginal.The low pressure system associated with the active weather today will
continue to deepen/better organize as it shifts northward towards the
Great Lakes on Saturday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast
to continue ahead of a northward moving warm front and trailing cold front
shifting eastward towards the East Coast overnight into early Saturday
afternoon. The increased forward motion of the frontal system should keep
storms from lingering over the same areas too long, significantly reducing
forecast rain amounts compared to areas farther west, with the highest
totals of 0.5-1 inch expected through the Mid-Atlantic. In addition to the
rain, wrap-around precipitation in the colder air to the north and west of
the surface low track will lead to snow for portions of the Great Lakes
and the Interior Northeast/New England. Some moderate to heavy snowfall
totals of 4-8+ inches are possible from southeastern Wisconsin into
northern Michigan on Saturday, with 3-6 inches expected for higher
elevations and regions close to the Canadian border in the Interior
Northeast/New England. A wintry mix including a light glaze of freezing
rain is also possible across the Lower Peninsula of Michigan and portions
of the northern Appalachians.Temperatures ahead of the advancing front will be above average from
southern/eastern Texas into the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic, with
highs in the 70s and 80s forecast. Temperate highs in the upper 40s and
low 50s over New England today will drop into the 30s and low 40s
Saturday. Highs over the Great Lakes will be in the 40s today with 30s for
Saturday, and a similar drop is forecast over portions of the Northern
Plains with 30s and 40s today dipping into the 20s for some locations
Saturday. Highs will moderate a bit further south over the Central Plains
and Middle Mississippi Valley from the 40s and low 50s today into the
mid-50s for many locations Saturday.Mean upper-level troughing and energetic flow over a couple frontal
systems pushing through the West will keep precipitation chances up and
temperatures well below average across northern and central portions of
the region. Heavy snow totals over a foot are forecast for the Cascades as
well as for mountain ranges in the Northern Rockies and southward into the
eastern Great Basin, with more moderate snowfall for the ranges of the
Central Rockies. Accumulations are expected to remain light for lower
elevations. Some light accumulating snow is also expected into the
adjacent Central High Plains. High temperatures will be chilly Saturday
and Sunday, with 30s for the Great Basin and northern/central Rockies, 40s
for the Pacific Northwest and Southern Rockies, 50s for northern/central
California, and 60s to low 70s for southern California and the Desert
Southwest. Some locations across the Great Basin will see highs near or at
record low maximum temperatures for the date.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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