Updated at 6:38 p.m. Thursday, March 23, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
421 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023Valid 00Z Fri Mar 24 2023 – 00Z Sun Mar 26 2023
…Strong to severe thunderstorms will be a significant concern this
evening and continuing through Friday night from the Southern Plains, the
Mid-South, and Lower Mississippi Valley to possibly the Ohio Valley……Widespread heavy rain and flash flooding setting up across the
Mid-Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley this evening through Friday night……An intensifying low pressure system will likely bring very strong
winds, heavy rain/thunderstorms into the Ohio Valley as heavy snow could
develop across the Midwest into lower Michigan Saturday morning……Unsettled weather and chilly temperatures with locally heavy mountain
snowfall to continue across the West……Very warm temperatures will prevail through the end of the week across
much of the South through the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
We also just published the NOAA Four Season Outlook. You can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. Some might find the USGS ARkStorm Scenario Interesting. Click HERE to read. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A quasi-stationary front will be the focus for severe thunderstorms across
central Texas and Oklahoma tonight. The Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms issued by the Storm Prediction Center highlights the
possibility of large and potentially destructive hail, isolated severe
wind gusts, or a tornado associated with this evening’s threat. Abundant
moisture, supplied by the Gulf of Mexico, will interact with the
aforementioned quasi-stationary front, producing heavy rain and subsequent
flash flooding risks from the Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley tonight.
A Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect for much of the Ozarks
region where potential 1-2 in/hr rainfall rates could cause flash flooding.A deepening upper-level trough spinning through the Southern Plains will
then kick on a surface low pressure system to begin rapidly intensifying
over northern Texas and into the Mid-South through Friday. The attendant
cold front will become the focus for severe weather from the ArkLaTex to
the Tennessee Valley Friday afternoon into the evening. A Moderate risk of
Severe Thunderstorms is in effect for portions of the Lower Mississippi
Valley where, according to the Storm Prediction Center, some strong
tornadoes, damaging winds and hail are expected. Meanwhile, the
quasi-stationary front responsible for dangerous weather tonight will be
responsible for another round of heavy rainfall from the Mid-South to the
Ohio Valley. There’s a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall from
northeastern Arkansas along the Ohio River into southwestern Ohio where
2-4 inches of rainfall over primed soils and streams may cause flash
flooding.Heavy snow and strong winds are likely to develop on the north side of the
dynamic Mid-South/Midwest system early Saturday morning, and continue into
the evening. Between 4-8 inches of snow is expected by Sunday morning from
southeastern Wisconsin to the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. This could lead
to tricky travel across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region. Elsewhere,
chilly temperatures persist across the West, while seasonably warm
temperatures spread across the southeastern quadrant of the country
through this weekend. Heavy snow blankets the western mountains over the
next couple of days, as well. There’s a critical fire weather area for
portions of west Texas tomorrow due to dry and windy conditions.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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