Updated at 4:02 p.m. EDT Tuesday, March 21, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
353 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2023Valid 00Z Wed Mar 22 2023 – 00Z Fri Mar 24 2023
…Powerful storm system to spread high winds, heavy rain, and heavy
mountain snow into portions of California and the Southwest……Widespread rain and heavy mountain snow expected to move across the
Southwest, Great Basin, and the central and southern Rockies by early
Thursday……Heavy snowfall to impact portions of the Northern Plains and Upper
Mississippi Valley through midweek…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
We also just published the NOAA Four Season Outlook. You can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. Some might find the USGS ARkStorm Scenario Interesting. Click HERE to read. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A very strong low pressure system currently just offshore of San Francisco
Bay will continue to bring high winds, heavy rain, and heavy mountain snow
for California and adjacent areas of the Southwest through tonight and
Wednesday as the latest in a series of atmospheric rivers impacts the
West. The low pressure system will advance across the Intermountain West
going through the middle of the week, and this will bring heavy snowfall
across large areas of the Great Basin and into the higher terrain of the
central and southern Rockies going through early Thursday.Regarding the impacts from this storm system, the winds this evening
across areas of central and southern California will be quite strong and
may reach as high as 60 to 70 mph with higher gusts. This coupled with the
heavy rainfall may lead to downed trees and power lines. Locally several
inches of rainfall is expected by Wednesday morning across especially
southern California and this will foster concerns for rapid runoff,
flooding and mudslides given the already wet, saturated soil conditions
that are in place. The snowfall will be quite heavy once again for the
central and southern Sierra Nevada as the system moves inland, and
additional snowfall amounts of 3 to 4 feet can be expected with isolated
heavier amounts. This additional snowfall will lead to difficult travel
and could strain infrastructure in areas already buried under a
record-breaking snowpack for the year-to-date.Impacts are also anticipated across the Southwest, central Great Basin,
and gradually reaching into the central and southern Rockies. Gusty
southwesterly winds up to 60 mph are possible across the Desert Southwest,
with heavy rain and localized flash flooding possible across parts of
central Arizona. Elevated terrain from central Nevada to western Colorado
can expect heavy snow to last through Wednesday before then tapering down
by early Thursday. Dangerous to difficult travel is likely here, with most
mountain ranges expected to see as much as 1 to 2 feet of additional
snowfall with isolated heavier amounts.Wintry weather will also impact the north-central U.S. through midweek as
a storm system traverses the region. Low pressure currently strengthening
over the northern Plains will advance across the Upper Mississippi Valley
by Wednesday morning, and this should interact with sufficient cold air
for a swath of heavy accumulating snow for eastern North Dakota and much
of northern Minnesota. As much as 6 to 10 inches of snow, with isolated
amounts in excess of 1 foot will be possible before the snow tapers off.
This storm system will pull away from the region and exit into Ontario on
Thursday.On Thursday, aside from very warm and much above normal temperatures
overspreading much of the South and large sections of the eastern U.S.,
there will be a growing concerns for developing showers and thunderstorms
later in the day across central and eastern Oklahoma into southwest and
central Missouri as a strong front gradually stalls out across the region.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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