Updated at 5:05 p.m. EDT Monday, March 20, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2023Valid 00Z Tue Mar 21 2023 – 00Z Thu Mar 23 2023
…Powerful storm system to spread high winds, heavy rain, and heavy
mountain snow to parts of California and the Southwest on Tuesday……Threat of heavy snow continues across the Intermountain West and
Rockies over the next few days……A couple rounds of light-to-moderate snowfall are expected across
portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest between Tuesday and
Thursday morning...
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
We also just published the NOAA Four Season Outlook. You can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. Some might find the USGS ARkStorm Scenario Interesting. Click HERE to read. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
The most impactful weather system to affect the U.S. through midweek is
forecast to move across California and the Southwest on Tuesday. A rapidly
strengthening low pressure system to deepen off the West Coast will swing
toward the central California coast and produce potentially damaging wind
gusts, heavy rain, and heavy mountain snow. The strong pressure gradient
associated with the anomalously low pressure could lead to maximum wind
gusts near 75 mph across Southern California, with gusts up to 50 mph
across central California. Additionally, a surge of subtropical moisture
will accompany this system and create a ripe environment for heavy rain
from the central coastline to Southern California. Heavy rain is likely to
lead to rapid runoff and areas of flooding across southern California,
with isolated flooding instances possible for regions to the north. For
the mountainous terrain of the southern/central Sierra Nevada and Southern
California, heavy snow will be the primary hazard as snowfall
accumulations add up to as much as 3 to 4 feet in spots. This additional
snowfall will lead to difficult travel and could strain infrastructure in
areas still buried under a record-breaking snowpack for the year-to-date.
Impacts are also anticipated to spread farther inland during the second
half of Tuesday across the Southwest, central Great Basin, and
south/central Rockies. Gusty southwesterly winds up to 60 mph are possible
across the Desert Southwest, with heavy rain and localized flash flooding
possible across parts of central Arizona. Elevated terrain from central
Nevada to western Colorado can expect heavy snow to last into Wednesday.
Dangerous to difficult travel is likely, with most mountain ranges
experiencing over a foot of snowfall. Numerous wind, flood, and winter
headlines have been issued for the upcoming storm. Be sure to check with
your local forecast office for details.Wintry weather will also impact the north-central U.S. through early
Thursday as two separate systems traverse the region. Between Tuesday and
Wednesday morning, a low pressure system is forecast to swing from the
northern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes, with locally heavy snow possible
just to the north from southeast North Dakota to northern Minnesota.
Snowfall amounts up to 7 inches are possible and when combined with areas
of blowing snow, visibility could be reduced and create treacherous
driving conditions. The next system to impact the central U.S. is expected
to swing eastward late-Wednesday and produce the potential for a swath of
additional snowfall from south Dakota to southern Minnesota (so just to
the south of the first storm). Snowfall totals could add up to over 4
inches. Farther south and east, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
anticipated to develop along a stationary front Wednesday night across
portions of the Midwest.Elsewhere, one more chilly morning is on the way for the Southeast on
Tuesday before springlike temperatures migrate eastward from the southern
Plains by midweek. Low temperatures tonight are still likely to dip below
freezing throughout the Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Freeze Warnings
and Frost Advisories have been issued from eastern Mississippi to the
Carolinas in order to highlight the potential for damage to sensitive
vegetation and unprotected outdoor plumbing.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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