Updated at 4 p.m. EDT Sunday March 19, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023Valid 00Z Mon Mar 20 2023 – 00Z Wed Mar 22 2023
…Record-breaking cold across the Southeast Monday morning to lead to
widespread and potentially harmful freezing temperatures……Strong storm system to impact southern California on Tuesday with high
winds, heavy rain, and heavy mountain snow……Heavy snow to impact parts of the Intermountain West and Rockies before
wintry weather spreads into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on
Tuesday…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
We also just published the NOAA Four Season Outlook. You can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. Some might find the USGS ARkStorm Scenario Interesting. Click HERE to read. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A dominant high pressure system spanning from the south-central U.S. to
the East Coast has ushered in a very chilly airmass from the Gulf Coast to
the Northeast, which is likely to lead to widespread freezing temperatures
across the Southeast on Monday morning. Low temperatures are forecast to
dip into the low 30s and 20s across the Gulf Coast and Southeast. These
temperatures equate to around 20 to 30 degrees below average compared to
climatology for the date and could even break several daily low
temperature records. Freeze Warnings have been issued and spread from
eastern Texas to the Carolinas, including much of the Tennessee Valley and
Deep South. Temperatures below the freezing mark could kill sensitive
vegetation, as well as damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. As the high
pressure system gradually slides eastward on Tuesday, slightly warmer
temperatures will surge northward throughout the southern Plains and Lower
Mississippi Valley, but one more cold morning can be expected across the
Southeast.The next potent storm system to impact California is set to spread
hazardous weather inland on Tuesday, with much of the unsettled conditions
confined to the southern half of the Golden State. High Winds from the
central California coast to Southern California could lead to tree damage
and power outages as gusts reach up to 80 mph. Heavy rain is also forecast
to swing inland on Tuesday and could lead to scattered instances of
flooding and rapid runoff, mainly for southern California, but also
potentially spreading up the central coastline and San Joaquin Valley.
Into Tuesday night, an axis of locally heavy rain is also possible over
central Arizona. Soils remain overly saturated for these regions and could
exacerbate any flood threat. For the central/southern Sierra Nevada and
Southern California mountain ranges, another round of heavy snow is on the
way and could add up to several feet for some the highest terrain.Heavy snow is also likely to create the potential for hazardous travel
over the next few days across the Intermountain West and Rockies as a
persistent flow of Pacific moisture continues into the region. An initial
weak wave of atmospheric moisture moving through the Great Basin tonight
is likely to spread moderate snowfall into the Utah and western Colorado
mountains. Snowfall amounts could add up to over a foot for these regions.
As this system ejects into Great Plains on Tuesday, an area of
light-to-moderate snow is likely to develop across the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest. Generally 3 to 6 inches of snow is anticipated from the
Dakotas to northern Minnesota as the developing low pressure system pushes
northeastward across the region. As the next low pressure system impacting
California on Tuesday pushes into the Great Basin on Tuesday night,
additional rounds of heavy snow are likely into the central Rockies and
Intermountain West.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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