Updated at 4 p.m. EDT Saturday, March 18 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
345 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2023Valid 00Z Sun Mar 19 2023 – 00Z Tue Mar 21 2023
…Much below normal temperatures to engulf much of the East & South
through Monday; lingering lake effect snow showers tonight & Sunday……Next round of rain and heavy mountain snow, colder than normal
temperatures expected throughout the West into next week……Scattered showers and thunderstorms across Florida…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
We also just published the NOAA Four Season Outlook. You can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. Some might find the USGS ARkStorm Scenario Interesting. Click HERE to read. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
Cyclonic flow across the Great Lakes will continue to trigger lake effect
snow showers across parts of the northern Michigan and down wind of Lakes
Erie and Ontario tonight and into early Sunday. A passing surface trough
over New England on Sunday will allow for another day of scattered snow
showers across the Northeast, while high pressure building in from the
southwest shuts off the lake effect snow machine by Sunday afternoon.
Speaking of that area of high pressure, this feature is responsible for
the surge of much below normal temperatures across the much of the
Nation’s Heartland and into the Mid-South on Sunday. Numerous Freeze
Warnings have been posted from north Texas to the North Carolina coast
through for both Sunday and Monday mornings. A handful of record breaking
cold min and max temps are expected across the South both Sunday and into
Monday morning. The abnormally cold temperatures extends as far south and
west as West Texas, where Winter Storm Warnings and Weather Advisories are
in effect through Sunday morning due to periods of snow falling in the
higher terrain and Big Bend region of West Texas. The dome of below normal
temperatures will linger through Monday across the South while the Midwest
and Northeast gradually moderate to more seasonal temperatures by Monday
afternoon and into Tuesday.The West will feature the most active weather pattern to close out the
weekend and kick-off the upcoming week. A storm system is set to deliver
Pacific moisture into California and as far north as the Pacific Northwest
on Sunday. The heaviest snowfall is forecast to occur in the Sierra Nevada
and northern California on Sunday where snowfall totals up to 12 inches
are forecast in the higher terrain. Winter Storm Warnings have been posted
for the northern Sierra Nevada where some snowfall amounts could range
between 1-2 feet with wind gusts climbing as high as 50 mph. Moisture
associated with this storm system will spill into the Great Basin and the
Rockies on Monday, resulting in periods of mountain snow and valley rain
showers. Snowfall totals are forecast to surpass a foot in the higher
elevations of the Great Basin, the Wasatch, and the western Colorado
Rockies. Periods of mountain snow look to continue over the Rockies late
Monday and into Monday night, while the next Pacific storm system
approaches California on Tuesday. Not only will there be mountain snow and
valley/coastal rainfall, but temperatures will remain abnormally cool
throughout the West into the first half of the week.Farther south, a cold front tracking south through the Florida Panhandle
today is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms across the northern
Panhandle this afternoon. The cold front will continue its march south
producing spotty showers across northern and central Florida tonight and
eventually over South Florida by Sunday afternoon and evening. By Monday,
the front will be well south and east of Florida, with residual showers on
Monday dissipating or tracking out to sea by Monday afternoon as high
pressure builds in from the north.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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