Updated at 8:05 p.m. Thursday, March 9, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 PM EST Thu Mar 09 2023Valid 00Z Fri Mar 10 2023 – 00Z Sun Mar 12 2023
…Threat of heavy rain, flooding, and heavy high-elevation snow for the
West as an Atmospheric River impacts the region……Moderate to locally heavy snowfall accumulations will spread from the
Northern/Central Plains into the Great Lakes and Appalachians
Thursday-Friday……Shower and thunderstorm chances with locally heavy rainfall continue
for the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley Thursday;
precipitation chances increase for the East Coast Friday…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A persistent storm system lingering off the northwest Pacific coast will
better organize as upper-level energy approaches and moisture tapped deep
from the Pacific streams in, bringing yet another Atmospheric River event
to the West Coast in an already active winter season. Warming temperatures
will raise snow levels across much of the West, bringing the heavy rain
threat up into some portions of the higher terrain, including areas snow
on the surface. A Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of Excessive Rainfall is in
effect on Thursday over portions of central coastal California and the
interior central valleys. A High Risk (level 4/4) of Excessive Rainfall is
in effect on Friday over the same areas, particularly in favorable upslope
regions along the terrain of the coastal ranges and the Sierra, where
several inches of rain are expected. Because this system is overall warmer
than previous atmospheric rivers, rainfall at higher-elevations may
contribute to rapid snowmelt, which may further exacerbate the potential
for scattered to numerous flooding instances downstream. The threat for
flooding also extends to the east slope of the Sierra into the Great Basin
as well, given the warmer temperatures. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall
may also impact the Pacific Northwest, but without the flooding concerns
seen further south due to a lack of tropical moisture import.
Additionally, heavy snowfall will spread across higher mountain elevations
in the Cascades, Sierra, and interior ranges of the northern Great Basin
Thursday. This snow will then spread into portions of the northern/central
Rockies by Friday. Widespread snow totals of over a foot are likely, with
locally much higher totals of multiple feet possible, especially for
portions of the Sierra. Interior valley locations will likely see a mix of
rain and snow, keeping any snow accumulations low. Numerous and widespread
wind-related advisories are in effect for portions of northern and central
California and portions of the Great Basin due to wind gusts forecasted to
reach upwards of 40-50 mph at lower elevations and up to 70 mph at higher
elevations. Despite cool high temperatures on Thursday, Pacific air moving
in on Friday will cause temperatures to warm up going into the weekend,
with highs forecast to be in the 40s and 50s for the Pacific Northwest and
the Great Basin, and 50s and 60s for much of California. The Desert
Southwest and Southern Rockies will remain warmer than the rest of the
region, with most highs into the 60s and 70s, reaching into the low 80s
for some locations.Further east, an upper level wave pushing across the Plains and into the
Midwest will aid the organization of an eastward moving frontal system and
continue to spread snow from the Northern/Central Plains into the Great
Lakes and into the central/northern Appalachians by Friday. The highest
chances for locally heavier snow of 6″+ will be over eastern Iowa into
southern Wisconsin on Thursday, and favorable lake-effect locations off
Lake Erie and into higher elevations of the central/northern Appalachians
in Pennsylvania into Friday. Snow rates may exceed an 1″ per hour at
times, leading to difficult travel conditions. On Friday, the system over
the West will move into the Northern Plains, bringing renewed snow chances
to portions of Montana and the Dakotas through Saturday. Locally heavier
snowfall accumulations are possible near the Canadian border and into
northeastern North Dakota. High temperatures will generally be seasonable
across the Midwest, with 30s and 40s on Friday. High temperatures will
cool down from west to east over the weekend over the northern Plains,
with highs generally in the 20s and 30s on Saturday.The chance for showers and thunderstorms will linger across much of the
southern tier of the country as a stagnant quasi-stationary surface
boundary remains in the region. Some locally heavy rainfall will be
possible across portions of eastern Texas and into the Lower Mississippi
Valley, though the flash flood risk is more marginal compared to previous
days. The incoming upper-level shortwave will help to finally push the
boundary southward as a cold front starting late Thursday night into this
weekend, pushing storm chances eastward through the lower Mississippi
Valley and into the Southeast on Friday and Saturday. Unseasonably warm
temperatures will come to an end across southern Texas and the Lower
Mississippi valley due to the cold frontal passage cooling temperatures
down to more seasonable temperatures Friday, with generally 60s for highs
outside of the immediate Gulf Coast and far South Texas. Precipitation
chances will also increase for the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas due to the
approaching frontal system. Light to moderate rain showers can be expected
from Virginia south, while some snow may mix in to the north along the
I-95 urban corridor Friday night, though very little to no accumulations
are currently expected. Temperatures will generally cool going into the
weekend following the frontal passage. High temperatures on Friday will be
in the 30s and 40s for New England and 50s-60s in the Mid-Atlantic,
cooling down to the 40s and 50s for much of the East Coast on Saturday.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.-
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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