No, it will never happen – America will forever be involved in the Mideast for one simple reason: Israel!
Other than that, America, or American influence over there to be more precise, would soon be done and gone!
Why?
We have blundered so much over the past few decades that there is not a single true ally left for us (other than Israel), but a lot of hatred against us!
Who, then, will replace America as the major influence over there?
Iran as the dominant regional force, with Russia and China as the major foreign forces!
It is a no-brainer that Iran and Russia will dominate over there from now on (e.g., The solution to Syria runs through Moscow). But China, also?
Yes!
Let me explain …
1. Two recent news stories
- How Qatar ended up hosting the World Cup.
- China’s Xi gets a grand welcome to Saudi Arabia and promises a ‘new era’ in Chinese-Arab relations.
For the significance of story 1, watch the video below.
For the significance of story 2, watch the video below.
2. China’s global strategy
It is very simple: trade with everybody, regardless of ideology.
Here are two excerpts from two 2016 articles (both by Ian Bremmer):
- China is the world’s only government with a truly global foreign policy strategy. But that strategy involves solving China’s problems—not the world’s (The absence of Global Leadership Will Shape a Tumultuous 2016).
- It is the only country of scale today with a real global economic strategy (The Top 5 Geopolitical Risks for 2016).
In case you are impressed by the two recent news stories highlighted in the previous section, below are two old news stories:
- China Is Reaping Biggest Benefits of Iraq Oil Boom.
- President Xi’s visit to Iran historic event: Rouhani.
Bottom line: China has been working hard on the Mideast for the past two decades, at least!
Still wondering why China has been doing so well over the past few decades?
Wonder not – China thinks and acts strategically, with a very long vision!
Now, if you think China is in trouble based on some bad news stories here and there, now and then (China’s reopening poses new challenges for itself and the world), think again – China has the best system in the world today, which is highly adaptable, highlighted by the image below.
For more, read the book cited at the end of this post.
3. America’s global strategy
America has no global strategy (nor any domestic strategy for anything big and serious). As a matter of fact, over the past few decades at least, the American government, thanks to the MIC (America’s Evil Military Industrial Complex), has been reduced to two primary functions: making weapons at home and selling them abroad (via military interventions if necessary)! Two big examples:
- President George W. Bush launched the Iraq War in March 2003, at least partially, for the sake of his re-election in 2004.
- President Obama continued President Bush’s doctrine in the Mideast: spreading democracy! When that failed to work, he chose to do nothing (e.g., Egypt – Its first democratically elected President was toppled and jailed) or resorted to an old tried-but-failed strategy: war (e.g., Iraq – He launched a new war in Iraq in September 2014. Need I mention Libya and Syria?).
What about President Trump and President Biden?
- Give President Trump the credit for initiating no new war (Correctly assessing President Trump), although his approach to the Mideast was fundamentally flawed (How Donald Trump and the GOP Dropped the Two-State Solution-for Mideast Peace).
- President Biden’s approach to Saudi Arabia was brainless and shameful (Biden would rather beg Saudis to pump more oil than take on progressives). Beyond the Mideast, give him the credit for ending the war in Afghanistan, but blame him for enabling the war in Ukraine (Are Democracy and NATO a lethal combination?)!
As a result, the Mideast is a complete shambles for two main reasons:
- Its own complications (e.g., cultures, religions, and history), especially western colonialism over a few hundred years (British Colonialism, Middle East).
- America’s brainless foreign policy over the past few decades, with the worst example being the reckless launch of the Iraq War in 2003!
4. Discussion
The Mideast has been a troubled place for a long time, but it has been severely messed up by America over the past few decades.
With China coming in as a major trading partner with all the countries over there, the Mideast will have even less room for America.
More troublesomely for America, Iran, which is already dominant in the region, will inevitably become even more dominant over time, including gaining more and more influence in Iraq!
No doubt, America still has the most powerful military in the world. But our brain power has proven to be far less than China’s, Russia’s, or even Iran’s!
4.1 A harsh reality check
The image below is worth more than 1,000 words.
4.2 America’s latest effort in the Mideast
Read US steps ‘Middle East of renewables era’ – and direct competition China.
4.3 What is America doing, really?
How do you like the analogy below?
5. Closing
The Mideast will never be without America because of Israel. Other than that, America’s influence will be diminished over time!
America, reform our failing political system, as I have suggested (History 2.0 – China’s Comeback vs. America’s Decline), or become a fiddle, second to China!
Now, please sit back and enjoy the video below.
