Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.
...Moderate to heavy mountain snow moving across the central Rockies today into early Friday... ...Severe thunderstorms likely across the southern Plains on Friday ahead of and along a potent cold front... ...Above-average temperatures across northern Plains and Midwest today; spreading eastward this weekend... ...Atmospheric River will bring widespread rain and high-elevation snow across the Pacific Northwest...
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast (It is updated twice a day and these updates can be found here.
A highly amplified upper-level trough continues to swing eastward across the Intermountain West, triggering multitudinous weather hazards for areas west of the Mississippi River. Colder air associated with the upper trough continues to overspread the western U.S. today in the wake of a potent, eastward-progressing cold front. As snow across the Sierra Nevada and northern Rockies gradually tapers off today, a low-pressure system is forecast to develop over the central High Plains. Snow associated with this system will overspread much of the central Rockies in addition to increasingly gusty winds. Snow will spread into the nearby northern to central High Plains today and Friday, with strong and gusty winds from the north adding to the wintry feel in these areas. A drastic change from the warm and dry weather in recent days. Conditions will improve late tonight as the system moves eastward, leading to a pleasant, albeit cold, start to the weekend for central and western portions of the Intermountain West. As the strong storm system ejects eastward into the central and southern Plains today, hazardous weather will occur along and ahead of the progressing cold front and dry line as warm, moist air surging northward from the Gulf clashes with the cooler, drier air. As a result, showers and potentially severe thunderstorms may develop across the central Plains before the threat shifts further east on Friday into eastern Texas and Oklahoma. As a result, the Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of the region under a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms today and an Enhanced Risk tomorrow, due to the potential for damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes. In addition to the severe threat, anomalously moist air in conjunction with developing showers and thunderstorms along the slow-moving cold front may lead to prolonged moderate to, at times, heavy rainfall rates and isolated instances of flash flooding across the Mississippi Valley and central Plains on Friday. Therefore, a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall has been issued for the Ark-La-Tex region. By early on Saturday, the intensifying low-pressure system is forecast to move toward the upper Midwest with a band of showers and thunderstorms extending down the Mississippi Valley along the cold front as well as another band of enhanced rainfall with possibly strong thunderstorms extending up across the upper Midwest ahead of a warm front. Colder air wrapping behind the intensifying low could change the rain to snow across the western portion of the upper Midwest. The cold front is forecast to become more diffuse Saturday afternoon as it progresses into the Ohio Valley and Southeast, with the potential for strong thunderstorms and moderate to heavy rainfall rates decreasing as the frontal convergence weakens. Further east, ahead of the cold front, warmer-than-average temperatures will persist across the eastern two-thirds of the country under the influence of an expansive high-pressure system centered over the Northeast. Widespread above-average temperatures are forecast today across the northern Plains and Midwest, with temperatures in the mid-to-upper 70s (15-25 degrees above average) due to a dry, southerly flow. As the high pressure continues pushing east the warm air will shift eastward into the Southeast and Northeast this weekend, leading to delightful weather for outdoor activities. The next storm system will make its way onshore in the Pacific Northwest this evening, with mountain snow and lower-elevation rain rapidly overspreading the area. Rainfall amounts of 2-6" are possible across the region, which, in unison with the recent rainfall, may lead to isolated instances of flash flooding, especially in areas with elevation. Precipitation will spread inland on Friday and Saturday as the system emerges from the northern Rockies and intensifies, leading to increasingly gusty winds and infiltrating cooler air in its wake.
Current forecast of heavy precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Maps that relate the forecast to geography can be found by clicking Here for Day 1 and Here for Day 2.
Here is a 60-hour animated forecast map that shows how the short-term forecast is expected to play out
If it needs to be updated click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
Click HERE to update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast
(This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here This is a new approach and covers weeks 2 and 3 not weeks 1 and 2. It has more information but I am having trouble getting used to it. As usual, it comes with a discussion which is below
Detailed Maps and Reports for the Western Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans
Below are four maps that summarize the situation for the Atlantic, Eastern, Central Pacific, and Western Pacific. Additional information can be accessed by clicking HERE
First the Atlantic
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc .noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin= atlc&fdays=5
Then Eastern Pacific
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=5
Then Central Pacific
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=cpac&fdays=5
And the Western Pacific
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
Some Intermediate-Term Outlooks
Links to “Outlook” maps and discussions for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information from deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
You have to click on the links because they do not update automatically and I do not want to have stale images in the article. But it is not difficult to click on a link and you get a large image plus a discussion. On Fridays in a separate article, we will show the images and provide a link in this article that article. But remember what you will see is the images as of Friday. But here you can get the current images simply by clicking on them. Then hit the return arrow at the upper left of your screen to return to the article. You will not find this information easily anywhere else.
Right now you can find these maps here (We show them every Friday there but you can click above and find them).
Worldwide Weather
Below is the current or short-term precipitation forecast which can be updated by clicking HERE Additional maps can be obtained H ERE.
Month to Date Information
Month to date Temperature can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Month to date Precipitation can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthPNormUS.png
