As expected, at the 20th CPC (Communist Party of China) National Congress, Xi Jinping was re-elected the party’s General Secretary for the third time, thus paving the way for him to be re-elected the Chinese President for the “precedent-shattering” third term at the next Chinese People’s Congress in early 2023.
Here is a critical question: Will Xi become Mao?
Here is my answer: Highly unlikely!
Three main reasons:
- Xi is very different from Mao.
- Xi’s China is very different from Mao’s.
- Xi’s world is very different from Mao’s.
Let me elaborate on each …
1. Xi is very different from Mao
Let me highlight these two individuals before comparing them.
1.1 Who is Mao?
There are two explicit versions of Mao:
- The great Mao: Mao unified China by force in 1949, thanks to his brilliance as a military leader.
- The bad Mao: He was a huge disaster for China from 1949 to 1976, because he was clueless about governing.
In other words, Mao, like many successful military leaders in history, failed in the mega-transition from seizing power by force to governing.
1.2 Who is Xi?
Xi earned his job by moving up along the CPC hierarchy. For more, read Wikipedia – Xi Jinping.
In short, Xi is the man in charge in China, now!
1.3 Comparing Xi with Mao
Here is the most critical difference between them: Unlike Mao, who failed in the mega-transition from seizing power by force to governing, Xi did not face such a transition at all – Xi came to power in times of peace through his demonstrated excellence in governing and political skills.
In other words, Xi may not know how to fight and win a huge war, as Mao did, but he knows how to govern, for which Mao failed miserably.
Governing is what China needs now, and excellence in governing is what Xi offers!
Bottom line: Xi cannot match [the great] Mao in feat, nor in defeat (i.e., the bad Mao), most likely – Feat and defeat tend to go hand in hand.
2. Xi’s China is very different from Mao’s
After more than four decades of economic reforms, China has rapidly advanced from a dirt-poor country to a relatively prosperous one.
Very notably, China has a well-educated population, with two key characteristics as follows:
- It still remembers Mao and his disastrous Cultural Revolution – been there, seen that.
- It is well-informed about world affairs, from capitalism to democracy.
Bottom line: If Xi goes too far to the left as Mao did, Chinese people will resist and rebel.
3. Xi’s world is very different from Mao’s
As will be discussed in the next section, the Chinese President is not a big deal when compared with the CPC’s “Chairman” (now called “General Secretary”). For example, Mao was the Chairman from 1949 to 1976, without being the Chinese President at all.
The Chinese President is important only outside of China.
Like Mao, Xi could remain as the “Chairman” for life, as there is no term limit for it.
Unlike Mao, Xi not only is the President but also wants to keep it for more than two terms – He wanted it so badly that he even changed the Chinese Constitution for it.
Why is that?
He needs it!
Unlike Mao whose only overseas trip was to the USSR (Mao’s humiliation in Moscow in 1949), Xi has to interact with the world, for which the title of Chinese President is a must.
Positive thinking: When Xi interacts with the world, he must conform to some international standards, which should limit his possible “defeat” at home. At least, many Chinese hope so, especially for those who lived through Mao’s era.
4. Discussion
Let’s have a broad discussion from five perspectives as follows:
- China’s one-party system.
- China’s modern history.
- China’s short-term future.
- China’s long-term future.
- China vs. America.
4.1 China’s one-party system
The image below highlights China’s one-party system.
As you can see, the Chinese President is not the top job in China. Rather, the head of the CPC is, regardless of its title (i.e., “Chairman” or “General Secretary”).
4.2 China’s modern history
Below are five major Chinese leaders since 1949.
Mao was unquestionably the de facto last Emperor, with the possibility of “crown by inheritance”. Unfortunately for Mao, his only able son was killed during the Korean War. Rumor has it that Mao never really recovered from that loss …
What about the other four? All were, or are, dictators, with absolute power. But none was, or is, an Emperor per se, for the lack of the possibility of “crown by inheritance”, like Mao did. Specifically,
- Deng Xiaoping served for life. For example, he remained a paramount leader until his death in 1997, while Jiang Zemin served as the President from 1993 to 2003.
- Copying Deng, Jiang remained the Chairman of the Central Military Commission until 2004, while Hu Jintao served as the President from 2003 to 2013. During the overlapping years, Jiang made sure his folks were good under Hu. Jiang remained a powerful force to be reckoned with throughout Hu’s era.
- Hu was perhaps the weakest among all. But he did an exceptional thing when he retired: he retired completely, George Washington style! It seemed like a good thing at the time, but …
- Xi came to power totally unconstrained. He soon consolidated his power by replacing most, if not all, of Hu’s (and even Jiang’s) folks, asserting total control of everything, from the CPC, to the military, and to the government.
Bottom line: Even before removing the term limit for the Chinese Presidency from the Chinese Constitution, Xi was already the most powerful leader in China since Mao.
4.3 China’s short-term future
It is largely in the hands of Xi Jinping.
In all fairness, given his track record, Xi is more likely to be a wise Emperor than a bad one, with one caveat: he could become an “old, dumb, and bad Emperor” (昏君), if he serves well into his dusk (e.g., the 4th term).
Hopefully, he understands that.
I believe global opinions will have an impact on Xi Jinping, which is another key difference between him and Mao.
4.4 China’s long-term future
Two most basic and challenging questions and answers for China:
- Is an Emperor-like figure indispensable for China? My answer is yes. The key reason: the Chinese civilization of the past 5,000 years has heavily relied on wise Emperors. Besides, what is the alternative – Democracy? Read American democracy: what is it and what’s wrong with it?
- How should this figure come by? Maybe an earned Emperorship is just the way to go (Toward an ideal form of government).
With that, do you still think it was a big deal that the serving time for China’s earned Emperorship was changed from 10 years to 15?
I do not think so.
But what about to 20 or even for life?
That would be very different – Let time speak. Five years are a long time in modern Chinese history …
Modern Chinese history is written by two individuals:
- Mao: The great one, as well as the bad one.
- Deng: He transformed China from communism to state capitalism, for which he should be regarded as the greatest peaceful transformational leader in human history.
Can Xi write the next chapter, good for China for decades to come?
Time will tell …
4.5 China vs. America
Xi is now serving his third term as the Chinese leader. Why is there such a huge outcry more outside of China (especially in America) than inside?
Two simple explanations:
- China: Most Chinese do not truly understand the alternative (i.e., democracy), but they clearly remember the past (e.g., the Cultural Revolution) and are deeply worried about a repeat.
- America: Few Americans want to see China succeed further, and they view every [perceived] setback in China as a justification for the superiority of the American political system (i.e., democracy). For more, read Why does America hate China?
Overall, few Americans would find China’s one-party system attractive. But here is a prominent exception: Trump on China’s Xi consolidating power: ‘Maybe we’ll give that a shot someday’.
Why is that?
Was President Trump just kidding? Or did he have some special insights into American politics, especially the American Presidency?
For more, read Is America brain-dead?
Everything is relative. While the Chinese are working hard on their political system, we Americans should work hard on ours. For more, read History 2.0 – China’s Comeback vs. America’s Decline.
5. Closing
Xi is unlikely to become Mao!
Overall, China has a very bright future. For more, read The People’s Republic of China at 73.
Now, please sit back and enjoy the video below.
