Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.
...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper Great Lakes to the Northern Plains and from the Mid-Atlantic, Central/Southern Appalachians, and Ohio Valley into Sunday morning... ...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday into Monday morning... ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley through Sunday morning... ...Dangerous heat across parts of the Pacific Northwest, Middle Mississippi Valley, Central Plains, and Northeast Coast...
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast (It is updated twice a day and these updates can be found here.
A front extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Northern High Plains will move to the Northeast and stall out over the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains through Monday. Moisture pooling along the front will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Great Lakes to the Northern Rockies that will move with the front through Monday. Some of the storms will produce heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper Great Lakes to the Northern Plains through Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable. In addition, some thunderstorms will be severe. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and minimal risk of tornadoes. On Sunday, the excessive rainfall threat increases over the Upper Midwest. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday into Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create numerous areas of flash flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers. The severe thunderstorm threat decreases to general thunderstorms on Sunday into Monday morning. However, that may change on Sunday. On Monday, the excessive rainfall threat moves to Northern New England. Furthermore, on Saturday into Sunday, showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Northeast to the Central Gulf Coast; some of these storms may produce heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Mid-Atlantic, Central/Southern Appalachians, and Ohio Valley into Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable. The threat of excessive rainfall decreases slightly on Sunday to a Marginal Risk over this area. Furthermore, monsoonal moisture will trigger diurnal showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Southwest/Great Basin and the Rockies on Saturday. As a result, the threat of excessive rainfall increases on Sunday over parts of Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado. Parts of this area will experience heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest and parts of the Central/Southern Rockies from Sunday into Monday morning. On Monday, the Slight Risk of excessive rainfall continues over parts of the Central/Southern Rockies. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable. Meanwhile, an upper-level high over the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley will aid in allowing temperatures to reach into the hundreds over the region and along with high humidity, have prompted Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisories over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Central Plains through Saturday evening. Furthermore, weak ridging will allow temperatures to rise into the mid to upper nineties over parts of the Pacific Northwest, also prompting Heat Advisories. In addition, temperatures in the low to mid-nineties and dew points in the upper sixties to low seventies have prompted Heat Advisories over parts of the Northeast Coast to parts of Lake Ontario through Saturday evening, too.
Maps that relate the forecast to geography can be found by clicking Here for Day 1 and Here for Day 2.
Here is a 60-hour animated forecast map that shows how the short-term forecast is expected to play out.
If it needs to be updated click here.
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click h ere for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast
(This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here
Detailed Maps and Reports for the Western Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans
Below are three maps that summarize the situation for the Atlantic, Eastern and Central Pacific. Additional information can be accessed by clicking HERE
First the Atlantic
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
Then Eastern Pacific
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=5
Then Central Pacific
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=cpac&fdays=5
And the Western Pacific
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
Some Intermediate-Term Outlooks
Links to “Outlook” maps and discussions for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information from deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
You have to click on the links because they do not update automatically and I do not want to have stale images in the article. But it is not difficult to click on a link and you get a large image plus a discussion. On Fridays in a separate article, we will show the images and provide a link in this article that article. But remember what you will see is the images as of Friday. But here you can get the current images simply by clicking on them. Then hit the return arrow at the upper left of your screen to return to the article. You will not find this information easily anywhere else.
Right now you can find these maps here (We show them every Friday there but you can click above and find them).
World Forecast for Day 6 (Currently Set for Day 6 but the reader can change that)
World Weather Forecast produced by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Unfortunately, I do not know how to extract the control panel and embed it into my report so that you could use the tool within my report. But if you visit it Click Here and you will be able to use the tool to view temperature or many other things for THE WORLD. It can forecast out for a week. Pretty cool. Return to this report by using the “Back Arrow” usually found top left corner of your screen to the left of the URL Box. It may require hitting it a few times depending on how deep you are into the BOM tool. Below are the current worldwide precipitation and air pressure forecasts for six days out. They will not auto-update and right now are current for Day 6. If you want the forecast for a different day Click Here I will try to update this map each day but you have the link so you can access the dashboard and get a wide variety of forecasts.
I mostly rely on the reader to interpret world maps. For this map, areas of expected precipitation for the date and time shown are clearly shown.
The number of High-Pressure systems shown is called the Wave Number. Maybe I will discuss WN someday. But it shows how many Rossby Waves there are around the World. Sometimes they are hard to count. Counting Low-Pressure systems should provide the same WN. Rossby Waves are the way the temperature distribution of the Planet remains in balance. It is basically the science of fluid dynamics. It can be very helpful in predicting the movement of weather patterns.
Month to Date Information
Month to date Temperature can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Month to date Precipitation can be found at https://hprcc.unl.e d u/products/maps/acis/MonthPNormUS.png
