In a previous post (Three New Kingdoms), I named three countries (i.e., America, China, and Russia) as the “Three New Kingdoms”. In this post, I will assess President Biden in this real world of Three New Kingdoms and provide him with some candid advice.
1. Three New Kingdoms
Read: Three New Kingdoms.
Bottom line: The balance of power among the three countries has recently greatly shifted away from America to Russia and China for one main reason: The Russia-China alliance is arguably more powerful than any American alliance, including NATO (Why America Should Fear Russia-China Alliance).
2. What do the three countries need today?
Let me highlight the needs of the three countries one by one.
2.1 What does Russia need?
Simply put, Russia needs four things:
- Political stability at home, for which President Putin has been very successful, with consistently high approval ratings (Putin’s approval rating in Russia).
- Economic stability at home, for which Russia needs China for many of its daily material needs in exchange for natural resources. In other words, no Western sanctions against it will work, if Russia just keeps its back-door to China open!
- High oil prices, for which Russia needs to maintain and expand its global influence, especially in the Mideast.
- National pride: “Make Russia Great Again”. Russia is a prideful country, and must hence maintain, and even gradually expand, its sphere of influence, for which it must have, and keep, Crimea for access to the Black Sea, for example.
Bottom line: Russia relies on China for survival, but does not need America at all, other than wishing America not to further mess up in the Mideast, Ukraine, or its domestic affairs.
2.2 What does China need?
Simply put, China needs four things:
- Political stability at home, for which China must constantly improve, as its system (i.e., state capitalism) is only slightly better than America’s.
- Economic stability at home, for which China must keep its high growth going for years, if not decades, to come.
- A peaceful world, as China wants to trade with everybody and needs natural resources, mostly from Russia and the Mideast.
- National pride: “Make China Great Again”. China is a world leader and must maintain, and expand, its sphere of influence. China will never compromise on its “internal affairs”, such as Taiwan, Hong Kong, the South China Sea, or Xinjiang.
Bottom line: China needs (1) Russia for natural resources and (2) America to trade.
2.3 What does America need?
Simply put, America needs four things:
- Political stability at home: America must reform its failing pollical system, as I have suggested (History 2.0 – China’s Comeback vs. America’s Decline), and it’s up to President Biden (My Letter Exchange with President Biden).
- Economic stability at home: America must learn from China in terms of social harmony, common prosperity, and everything public, from public health to public safety.
- Curtailing its military ventures overseas (com/watch?v=IrGgZiKlLhE).
- National pride: Truly “Make America Great Again”, for which America must recognize that the era of its global hegemony is over. America must therefore re-position itself globally, which means yielding more of its sphere of influence to China and Russia, while sharply focusing inward by getting its house in order!
3. What do the three countries want today?
Russia and China are allied against America. Let me highlight the wants of the three countries one by one.
3.1 What does Russia want?
Short-term: Russia wants a written security guarantee from America. Specifically, here are four Russian demands (4 things Russia wants right now):
- A guarantee Ukraine can never join NATO.
- NATO arms out of Eastern Europe.
- A ban on NATO missiles within striking distance.
- Autonomy for eastern Ukraine.
Long-term: Russia wants America out of Europe.
3.2 What does China want?
Short-term: China wants America to stop interfering in its domestic affairs, including Taiwan.
Long-term: China wants America out of East Asia.
3.3 What does America want?
America wants to maintain its global hegemony by all means! Specifically,
- Slowing China down, Tonya Harding style (com/watch?v=DjjND_ky6t4).
- Ignoring Russia’s recent demands (com/watch?v=_mwgXQVN02A).
4. Some candid advice for President Biden
- Better understand America as well as the world.
- Mind our own business, especially on political reforms.
- Stop exporting democracy, because it does not even work at home (American carnage: how Trump’s mob ran riot in the Capitol).
Now, some specific advice on Russia and China, respectively.
4.1 On Russia
- Better understand Russia and stop vilifying President Putin.
- Accept Russia as a world power. Russia wants, and deserves, more space as its sphere of influence. Ukraine and Syria are the least America should yield to Russia.
- Scale back in East Europe. A simple question: what if Russia moved to our front door (e.g., Cuba)? We all know the answer: Wikipedia – Cuban Missile Crisis.
- Lift all the sanctions against Russia as soon as possible. They do not work, as Russia has a huge back-door to China to get everything it needs.
4.2 On China
- Better understand China and stop China-bashing.
- Accept China as a world power. China wants, and deserves, more space as its sphere of influence. East Asia is the least America should yield to China.
- Forget about Hong Kong or Xinjiang. They are China’s internal affairs, just like the American carnage: how Trump’s mob ran riot in the Capitol is an American affair.
- End the trade war – It is hurting America more than China.
5. Discussion
The most urgent action required by President Biden is to seriously address Russia’s demand of a written security guarantee, or expect Russia’s next move: installing missiles in Cuba and/or Venezuela, thus causing Cuban Missile Crisis II!
Over time, if America continues its current foreign policy unchanged, do not be surprised to see Russian and Chinese warships showing up together at America’s coastlines, in the name of “freedom of navigation”.
It’s called “let America taste its own medicine”.
More profoundly, America, reform our failing political system, as I have suggested (History 2.0 – China’s Comeback vs. America’s Decline), or become a fiddle, second to China!
6. Closing
I wish President Biden will well handle Russia’s demand of a written security guarantee, or we may face the Cuban Missile Crisis II!
Enjoy this video:
