Daily Report for this evening and the next 48 hours from July 8, 2022 plus access to intermediate term Outlooks

July 8, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

This is still an experimental article (we are working to be sure all the images update)

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next two days from this afternoon’s  NWS Forecast:

...Dangerous heat and humidity to continue from parts of the central and
southern Plains to the Southeast...

...Unsettled weather including severe storms and heavy rain to continue
along a slow-moving boundary extending from the central Plains to the
Southeast...

...Severe storms possible into the weekend across Montana...

JAMSTEC Seasonal Outlook for Spring and Summer of 2022

January 27, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

I should have reported this a couple of weeks ago after NOAA issued their Seasonal Outlook.  JAMSTEC is a well respected Japanese Research Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology. They have a proprietary forecast model and every month they normally issue a three-season forecast. This month they only looked out two seasons.  I think it is useful to look at more than one forecast as it provides to some extent an assessment of the variability one might expect in the observed weather compared to the forecasts. This is usually due to slight differences in the strength and timing of the ENSO Cycle. As discussed in this article, both NOAA and JAMSTEC may be working with assumptions about the ENSO cycle that may turn out to be incorrect. So this may limit our ability to forecast even as far out as this summer.