Weather Forecast: Today, Tomorrow, Five Days, 10 Days U.S. and World December 19, 2022

December 20, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:06 p.m. EST Wednesday December 21, 2022

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Dec 22 2022 - 00Z Sat Dec 24 2022

...Powerful winter storm to produce a multitude of weather hazards across
the central and eastern United States through the end of the week...

...Bitter cold and life-threatening wind chills over the northern Plains
to surge southward this evening and swing towards the East Coast on
Friday...

...Significant freezing rain possible across parts of western Oregon and
Washington beginning Thursday night...

November 3, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical and World Precipitation

November 4, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Moderate to heavy mountain snow moving across the central Rockies today
into early Friday...

...Severe thunderstorms likely across the southern Plains on Friday ahead
of and along a potent cold front...

...Above-average temperatures across northern Plains and Midwest today;
spreading eastward this weekend...

...Atmospheric River will bring widespread rain and high-elevation snow
across the Pacific Northwest...

Friday looking ahead 28 days July 15, 2022

July 16, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

NOAA updates many of their weather outlooks and in many cases issues a discussion with those outlooks. On Fridays, they issue a week 3 – 4 outlook which is farther out than the typical 10-day forecast and the discussion is excellent. So we have decided to issue a special report on Fridays. When we issue the Seasonal Outlook on the third Thursday, we may sometimes issue the Friday report as an update to the Seasonal Outlook.

When the Week 3-4 Outlook is issued, we have a 28-day view of the future. It is important to recognize that the predictions do not always work out as predicted but in the article, there are links to obtain updated predictions.

It is not surprising that the forecast is relatively static and not showing much change over the 28-day period. And the dominant characteristic is hot.

Daily Report for this evening and the next 48 hours from July 6, 2022 plus access to intermediate term Outlooks

July 6, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

This is still an experimental article (we are working to be sure all the images update)

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next two days from this afternoon’s  NWS Forecast:

...Showers and thunderstorms with excessive rainfall and severe weather
possible through midweek from the Northern Rockies and High Plains to the
Mid Atlantic and Southeast...

...Dangerous heat and humidity to continue from parts of the central and
southern Plains to the Mid Atlantic and Southeast...

Daily Report for this evening and the next 48 hours from July 5, 2022 plus access to intermediate term Outlooks

July 5, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

This is still an experimental article so it has some problems that need to be worked on

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next two days from this afternoon’s  NWS Forecast.:

...Showers and thunderstorms with excessive rainfall and severe weather
possible early to mid week from the Northern High Plains to the East
Coast...

...Hot in the Southern & Central Plains and Southeast while milder
temperatures are expected in portions of the West/Northwest and
Northeast...

Daily Short-Term and Intermediate Term Weather Forecast – July 4, 2022

July 4, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

This is still an experimental article so it has some problems that need to be worked on especially the tropical section.

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next two days from this afternoon’s  NWS Forecast.:

...Excessive Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorms possible across northern
tier...

...West cools down as Great Plains into Midwest warm up...

...Critical fire weather conditions to persist across the Great Basin this
weekend...

NOAA Updates July Outlook – June 30, 2022 – Not Much Change – Some Ocean Indicators are Surprising

July 1, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 2:30 am EDT July 2, 2022 to incorporate the Week 3 – 4 Outlook which suggests that the second half of July will not be as cool in the Northwest but perhaps less warm elsewhere and the Monsoon may be less robust but some other areas will be less dry.

At the end of every month, NOAA updates their Mid-Month Outlook for the following month which in this case is July. They also issue a Drought Outlook for the following month and update the three-month Drought Outlook. We are reporting on that tonight. The updated Outlook is very similar to the Mid-Month Outlook. This is surprising since the Mid-Month Outlook was issued two weeks ago and there usually are more changes in that period of time.

For temperature, the shape and location of the large dry anomaly have changed a bit. The cool anomaly in the Northwest is now slightly larger. For precipitation, the area where an above-average Monsoon is forecasted is a little larger and shifted a bit to include more of New Mexico. there is a new small dry anomaly

We provide partial-month Outlooks for the first 22 days of July which allows us to somewhat assess if the Monthly Outlook is consistent with the partial-month Outlooks and it generally is. But we will not be able to answer that question definitively until the Week 3-4 Outlook is issued tomorrow.  We will provide an update at that time.

We also provide enough information for readers to understand any changes from the Mid-Month Outlook and we try to figure out why these changes were made.  Many of the changes are explained in the NOAA discussion which is included in the article. The partial-month forecasts that we have provided show how NOAA thinks this will play out as the weather pattern evolves during July.

There is also a discussion of the ENSO condition which is ever so slightly different than what NOAA used to develop the Mid-Month Outlook. But there is a fairly strong signal that this La Nina will end in late winter 2022/2023. The impacts on weather may not be noticed until Spring. But that is just the current forecast and can change.

We have also begun our tropical storm coverage. Yes, it is that time of the year. We are also providing special coverage of the Monsoon by providing the links to those daily updates.

NOAA Issues their Four-Season Outlook on June 16, 2022 – One or Two Month Delay in Southern Tier Shedding La Nina Weather

June 17, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

.Updated at 5 pm EDT on June 18 to incorporate the Week 3 – 5 Outlook issued on June 17 which is somewhat different than the full-month outlook so it is of some interest.

Change Appears to be Coming – but a bit slower than it looked last month.

Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also includes the Early Outlook for the single month of July plus the drought outlook for the next three months.  I summarize the information issued and provide links to additional maps.

Even though the IRI analysis issued last week seems to show the La Nina will end perhaps a bit sooner than previously forecast, the weather outlooks seem to show weather impacts lasting a month or two longer. Uncertainty in the ENSO forecast introduces greater than usual uncertainty in the Seasonal Outlook. But the decadal trends are strong so we see a lot of that in the longer-term outlooks.

NOAA Updates their Week 3-4 Outlook on June 3, 2022 – Easterly Wave and Monsoon Onset Likely

June 4, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at !:30 am EDT Monday, June 6, 2022 to include the Tropical Storm Alex Tracking Map which mostly now threatens Bermuda on Monday.  A near miss rather than a direct hit is expected.

On Tuesday, we discussed the NOAA update of their Outlook for June 2022. We only had 24 days of the short-term outlooks at that time so I decided to publish the Weeks 3 – 4 Outlook when it was issued which was today. It is always issued on a Friday. This combined with the discussion issued with the Outlook provides additional insight into how June weather will evolve.

The Weeks 3 and 4 Outlook just released and the precipitation Outlook (it remains an experimental product of NOAA), seems to confirm the Outlook for the Month of June with the possible exception that parts of the Southwest may be impacted by an Easterly Wave (from tropical activity) and an early onset of the North American Monsoon (NAM).