Crop Report of Progress and Production Estimates November 18, 2023

November 18, 2023Posted inagricultureNo Comments

Record High Corn Forecast

This article is based primarily on two sets of information:

A. The Crop Bulletin that was issued on November 14, 2023, and

B. Crop Production Executive Summary issued on November 9, 2023.  We only used a limited number of graphics from this long presentation…different graphics than we used last month. We provide a link to the full report. For the three main crops the NASS forecasts are higher than many of the industry forecasts so we will see if NASS has it right or if NASS is being overly optimistic.

We are coming to the end of this growing season so we are including both the progress of crops and the estimates of the final production hence the use of the two reports.

This article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions which are generally favorable. I also included U.S. crop-related weather forecasts.

 

We first look at the National Agriculture Summary.  The Tables below the summary have additional data.

Below is pretty much the same information in table format. However, there is a lot of additional information in these tables.

 

 

Some additional detail is provided HERE

It is mostly some additional weeks of data and it is all in larger print.

Crop Report October 25, 2023 – The Agricultural Statistics Board Briefing has Some Concerning Yield and Production Trends

October 25, 2023Posted inagriculture, weatherNo Comments

We are at the point now where crop progress may not be what is of most interest. The monthly Agricultural Statistics Board Briefing (It used to be called an Executive Briefing) may be more useful.  The full Briefing can be accessed HERE.  It is simply too long for me to snip that many images and publish them.  What I have done instead is select certain images that will be of most interest and present them instead of the usual crop Progress Report.  But I have included a link to the statistical part of the Weekly Crop Progress Report so that is also available to readers.

 

What is included in the Briefing is a combination of historical information and in most cases the current forecast for what the harvest will be like. In the full Briefing but not included in this article are slides that show how the forecasts have varied month by month and what the current forecast is and what other industry forecasts are. This Briefing is about crops not animals.

Of interest to me is the history of yields and also the history of actual production. In general, that data is concerning. I think most of the slides are self-explanatory so I have not included commentary on each slide.

Crop Report October 4, 2023 – Frost Concerns Begin

October 4, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article is based primarily on the October 3, 2023, USDA Crop Bulletin which covers the week ending October 1, 2023.  The full USDA Crop Bulletin can be accessed HERE

It again seems like an average crop which is good considering the late and poor start.  But we are concerned about the Frost/Freeze warning. Because we published a few days late last week there have only been a small number of days between that article and this one.

This article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions which are generally favorable. I also included U.S. crop-related weather forecasts. And there is a small grains production forecast.

We first take a look at the frost/Freeze warning.

We then take a look at the impact of flooding in Greece. I realize that Greece is not in the U.S. but the USDA thought it important enough to include this in their crop bulletin so I am showing it as it may impact world cotton production.

Now on to the National Agriculture Summary.  The Tables below the summary have additional data. The boxes with my comments may be incomplete so for crops of interest check the data out yourself to be sure.

Crop Report September 30, 2023 – Still Looking Good – Not Sure What a Government Shut Down will Entail

September 30, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article is based primarily on the September 26, 2023, USDA Crop Bulletin which covers the week ending September 24, 2023.  The full USDA Crop Bulletin can be accessed HERE

It again seems like an average crop which is good considering the late and poor start.  Because we published a few days late we were able to include the Crop Prices report that has indices for prices received and prices paid by farmers for their purchases but the ratio of prices received to prices paid is essentially the same in August as it was in July. But like all indices one sometimes has to look into the details to know how to interpret the indices and in this case the ratio of the price and cost indices. We show the summary and provide a link to the full report. Obviously, the full report is quite long and readers interested in this subject can follow the link provided and draw their own conclusions.

The article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions which are generally favorable. I also included U.S. crop-related weather forecasts.

We begin by taking a look at the impact of Tropical Storm Ophelia. It is probably too soon to assess the crop impacts which will show up in the USDA Crop Bulletin that will be issued on October 3 if the U.S. Government is not shut down.

Now on to the National Agriculture Summary.  The Tables below the summary have additional data. The boxes with my comments may be incomplete so for crops of interest check the data out yourself to be sure.

Crop Report September 21, 2023 – Still Looking Good

September 21, 2023Posted inagriculture, weatherNo Comments

This article is based primarily on the September 19, 2023, USDA Crop Bulletin which covers the week ending September 17, 2023. The USDA report usually becomes available on Tuesdays but I was not able to publish it last night but I did so this evening.  The full USDA Crop Bulletin can be accessed HERE

It again seems like an average crop. We are starting to have Production information as well as Progress Reports and this information is included in the article.

The article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions which are generally favorable. I also included U.S. crop-related weather forecasts.

We begin by taking a look at what finally was the impact of former Hurricane Lee

No on to the National Agriculture Summary.  The Tables below the summary have additional data. The boxes with my comments may be incomplete so for crops of interest check the data out yourself to be sure.

 

Crop Report September 7, 2023 – Crops Look Good – The Price Received to Cost Paid Ratio Not So Much

September 7, 2023Posted inagriculture, weatherNo Comments

This article is based primarily on the August 29, 2023, USDA Crop Bulletin which covers the week ending September 3, 2023. The USDA report usually becomes available on Tuesdays but was issued this week due to the National Holiday. The full USDA Crop Bulletin can be accessed HERE.

It again seems like an average crop. Hurricane Idalia seems to have had little if any impact but the reporting may need another week to be sure of that.

The article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions. I also included crop-related weather information. I have included the Agricultural Prices Report and it suggests problems for the agriculture sector.

First, we take a look at the impact of Hurricane Idalia

It did not seem to impact the cotton growing area to the extent I had expected it to do but it certainly impacted the citrus growing area. We do not have a report on the impacts of the storm on citrus this week.  This graphic shows the weather impacts but we do not know how it impacted the crop.

We begin with the National Agriculture Summary.  The Tables below the summary have additional data. The boxes with my comments may be incomplete so for crops of interest check the data out yourself to be sure.

Crop Report August 30, 2023 – Things are Still Looking Good – Let’s Hope Hurricane Idalia Does Not Do Much Damage.

August 30, 2023Posted inagriculture, weatherNo Comments

This article is based primarily on the August 29, 2023, USDA Crop Bulletin which covers the week ending August 27, 2023. The USDA report usually becomes available on Tuesdays. The full USDA Crop Bulletin can be accessed HERE.

It again seems like an average crop. But the recovery of the corn and soybean crops has been remarkable as the drought in the important growing area for those two crops let up. We will have to see what the impact of Hurricane Idalia is on cotton and other crops so the report next week will be of interest.

The article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions. I also included crop-related weather information. I will add the Agricultural Prices Report when it comes out.

We begin with the National Agriculture Summary.  The Tables below the summary have additional data. The boxes with my comments may be incomplete so for crops of interest check the data out yourself to be sure.

 

Crop Report August 24, 2023 – Things are Still Looking Good

August 24, 2023Posted inagriculture, weatherNo Comments

This article is based primarily on the August 22, 2023, USDA Crop Bulletin which covers the week ending August 20, 2023. The USDA report usually becomes available on Tuesdays. I have omitted a number of graphics that are available in the full USDA Crop Bulletin which can be accessed HERE.

It now seems like an average crop or better especially given the recovery of the corn and soybean crops as the drought in the important growing area for those two crops let up.

The article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions. It includes a report on U.S. rice stocks (inventory). I also included crop-related weather information.

We begin with the National Agriculture Summary.  The Tables below the summary have additional data. The boxes with my comments may be incomplete so for crops of interest check the data out yourself to be sure.

Crop Report August 17, 2023 – Corn and Soybeans have made remarkable recoveries.

August 17, 2023Posted inagriculture, weatherNo Comments

This article is based primarily on the August 15, 2023, USDA Crop Bulletin which covers the week ending August 13, 2023. The USDA report usually becomes available on Tuesdays. I have omitted a number of graphics that are available in the full USDA Crop Bulletin which can be accessed HERE.

It now seems like an average crop especially given the recovery of the corn and soybean crops as the drought in the important growing area for those two crops let up.

The article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions. I wanted to include a report on technology use in farming but the August version does not come out until later today so I will add it then.

We begin with the National Agriculture Summary.  The Tables below the summary have additional data. The boxes with my comments may be incomplete so for crops of interest check the data out yourself to be sure.

Crop Report July 29, 2023 – Crop Condition has Stabilized and May be Improving Somewhat -Where did the Cattle go?

July 29, 2023Posted inagriculture, weatherNo Comments

This article is based primarily on the July 25, 2023, USDA Crop Bulletin which covers the July 17 to 23 period of time. The USDA report usually becomes available on Tuesdays and I was not able to publish my article which is based on that report until now. I have omitted a number of graphics but they are available in the full USDA Crop Bulletin and the link to that is at the end of the article.

It now seems more like an average crop but it has not gotten worse which is a relief and it seems that some of the crops are doing better.

There is a recent Executive Briefing focusing on Cattle and I have published it in its entirety but with a minimum of comments. I was curious as to why beef prices were so high at the food stores and I think the presentation explains at least one of the reasons for this.

The article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions.

We begin with the National Agriculture Summary.  The Tables below the summary have additional data. The boxes with my comments may be incomplete so for crops of interest check the data out yourself to be sure.