NOAA Updates its Mid-month Outlook for August, 2024 – There are Some Changes – Posted on August 1, 2024

August 1, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is August of 2024. We are reporting on that tonight.

There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for August and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading.  We provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for August for comparison. It is easy to see the substantial changes in the weather outlook by comparing the Mid-Month and Updated Maps.

The article includes the Drought Outlook for August. NOAA also adjusted the previously issued Seasonal (ASO) Drought Outlook to reflect the changes in the August Drought Outlook. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.

The best way to understand the updated outlook for August is to view the maps and read the NOAA discussion. I have highlighted the key statements in the NOAA Discussion.

I am going to start with graphics that show the updated Outlook for August and the Mid-Month Outlook for August. This is followed by a graphic that shows both the Updated Outlook for August and the previously issued three-month outlook for ASO 2024. So you get the full picture in three graphics.

Here is the updated Outlook for August 2024.

 

For Comparison Purposes, Here is the earlier Mid-Month Outlook for August.

 

It is important to remember that the maps show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term climatology.

It is a substantial change from what was issued on July 18, 2024. Remember, it is the first set of maps that are the current outlook for August.  One expects some changes  13 days later. However, the changes to the updated August Outlook are significant, particularly with respect to precipitation.  This then gives us some reason to question the (July 18, 2024) three-month ASO temperature and precipitation Outlooks which are shown in the following graphic.

NOAA provided a combination of the Updated Outlook for August and the Three-Month Outlook.

The top pair of maps are again the Updated Outlook for the new month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The bottom row shows the three-month outlooks which includes August the new month. I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory.

To the extent that one can rely on a forecast, we would conclude that September and October will be very different than August, especially for precipitation. You can subtract Augusts from the three-month Outlook and divide by two to get a combined September-October Outlook.

However given the major change in the new August outlook from what was issued on July 18,  2024, we might not trust the Seasonal Outlook issued on July 18, 2024. Something to think about. But the major factor is the projected slower onset of La Nina. Thus this change is consistent with the pattern the NOAA has been predicting although they have been playing catch-up.

Some readers may need to click “Read More” to read the rest of the article.  Some will feel that they have enough information. But there is a lot more information in the rest of this article.