NOAA Updates its November 2023 Weather Outlook on October 31, 2023 – There have been some significant changes from the Mid-Month Outlook.

November 1, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is November of 2023. We are reporting on that tonight.

There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for November and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading.  We provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for November for comparison. It is easy to see the changes by comparing the Mid-Month and Updated Maps.

The article includes the Drought Outlook for November. NOAA also adjusted the previously issued Seasonal Drought Outlook to reflect the changes in the November Drought Outlook. We have included a map showing the water-year-to-date precipitation. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.

The best way to understand the updated outlook for November is to view the maps and read the NOAA discussion. I have highlighted the key statements in the NOAA Discussion.

I am going to start with graphics that show the updated Outlook for November and the Mid-Month Outlook for November. This is followed by a graphic that shows both the Updated Outlook for November and the three-month outlook NDJ 2023 – 2024. So you get the full picture in three graphics.

Here is the updated Outlook for November 2023

For Comparison Purposes, Here is the Mid-Month Outlook for November.

There have been some significant changes especially related to precipitation. Remember, it is the top set of maps that are the current outlook for November.

Combination of the Updated Outlook for November and the Three-Month Outlook

 

The top row is the Updated Outlook for the new month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes the new month. I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term climatology.