Tropical Storm Kay

After the first week, there is a change in the pattern with more moisture in the Northern Tier and more heat first in the Great Plains and then drifting to the East. The anomalies in the second half of the 28-day period moderate.

NOAA updates many of its weather outlooks daily or even more frequently and in many cases issues a discussion with those outlooks. We provide a daily report which focuses on the shorter-term predictions but has links to all the partial-month outlooks. One of the reports issued by NOAA only gets updated on Fridays and since this covers weeks 3 and 4 it is very important. The discussion that gets issued with this week 3-4 NOAA report is often where possible changes to the weather pattern are first identified.

So we have decided to issue a special report on Fridays (which most will read on Saturday) in which for a subset of the information, we show the actual forecast maps not just provide the links. This makes it easier for the reader. We will also include at the end of the article the other information from the daily article

When the Week 3-4 Outlook is issued on Friday, we have a 28-day view of the future. It is important to recognize that the forecasts do not always work out as predicted. But in the article, there are links to obtain updated forecasts.  This is important because it appears that changes are happening and the current view of the next 28 days differs substantially from the Monthly Outlook issued just a few days ago.

The regular 48-hour forecast article is included in this article and follows the 28-Day Analysis.

This week we also show the state rankings for August and compare them to the state rankings year to date (YTD).