Tropical Events

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Oct 13 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 13 2024 – 12Z Tue Oct 15 2024

…Unsettled weather forecast from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley to the
Northeast over the next few days…

…Record-breaking heat continues across parts of the Southwest and much
of the south-central U.S. today…

…Locally heavy rain possible across southeast Florida…

A deepening low pressure system progressing from the Lower Great Lakes
today towards southern New England by Monday morning along with a trailing
upper-level trough will bring unsettled weather to much of the Great
Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to
dampen outdoor activities along and north of a sharp warm front extending
from northern Pennsylvania to southern New England today. Meanwhile, an
attached cold front will sweep across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys by
this evening, with a few thunderstorms potentially turning severe and
containing damaging wind gusts from central Tennessee to eastern West
Virginia. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk (level
1/5) of severe thunderstorms in order to highlight this potential. As the
area of low pressure strengthens further on Monday and Tuesday while
lifting northward into eastern Canada, cold air surging southward on the
backside of the system will allow for high elevation snow in the
Adirondacks and northern New England mountain ranges. Lake effect rain and
snow showers will also be evident as cold northerly flow persists through
midweek. An autumn chill will spread over much of the Midwest and eastern
U.S. following the passage of the aforementioned cold front this week as
high temperatures only reach the 50s and 60s, with widespread lows in the
30s and 40s.

One more day of record-breaking heat is expected across the south-central
and southwestern U.S. today as mild air lingers south of the advancing
cold front. Highs into the 90s are anticipated throughout much of the Lone
Star State and Lower Mississippi Valley, with triple digits possible in
central Texas. 100s are also possible once again in Arizona before a
long-awaited gradual cooldown commences by Monday. Well above average
temperatures reorient early this week and are most apparent over the
western Gulf Coast, northern Rockies, and High Plains.

Outside of the Northeast and Pacific Northwest, much of the Nation will be
void of notable precipitation over the next few days. However, another
localized area of heavy rain potential exists over southeast Florida today
before thunderstorm activity pushes east away from the Sunshine State on
Monday. A few thunderstorms may exhibit slow forward motion while
containing intense rainfall rates over the sensitive urban corridor of
southeast Florida, which may lead to localized flash flooding. A Marginal
Risk (level 1/4) of Excessive Rainfall is in effect to further highlight
this heavy rainfall threat.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Oct 12 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 12 2024 – 12Z Mon Oct 14 2024

…Record-breaking heat forecast this weekend from parts of the Southwest
eastward into the central and south-central United States…

…Developing storm system to bring unsettled weather to the Ohio Valley,
Great Lakes, and Northeast through early next week…

…Locally heavy rain possible over southeast Florida…

An expansive ridge of high pressure stretching from the Southwest to the
central and southern Plains will result in continued record-breaking heat
across portions of the Desert Southwest this weekend. High temperatures
are forecast to reach into the upper 90s and triple digits, which is well
above normal for this time of year. Meanwhile, anomalous late-season heat
will also span into the central and south-central U.S. today with highs
ranging from the upper 80s to upper 90s. Numerous daily record high
temperatures are possible. By Sunday, a cold front will squash the most
searing heat southward, bringing some quick relief to the central Plains.
South of the front, yet another day of record heat is likely from Arizona
eastward through central Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley where
highs will once again soar well into the 90s. Elsewhere, unseasonable
warmth presses eastward into the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast
this weekend, with the only cooler than normal spots largely confined to
the northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast. However, below average
temperatures will expand on Monday into much of the Midwest and East as a
strong cold front ushers in the next crisp autumn airmass.

The aforementioned cold front is forecast to march eastward across the
Northeast today before stalling over the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic on
Sunday. An area of low pressure is then expected to develop along the
front, strengthening as it moves eastward into Pennsylvania by Sunday
night. This storm system will bring scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms to the larger region on Sunday, which may dampen outdoor
activities at times. A few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible too, especially ahead of the advancing cold front from eastern
Kentucky to West Virginia. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has issued
a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) to highlight this risk on Sunday. As the
low pressure system moves along the New England coastline on Monday, cold
air aloft will allow for light high elevation snow throughout parts of
northern New England.

Following in the wake of Hurricane Milton, strong northeasterly flow aided
by high pressure over the southern Appalachians and northeast of the
Bahamas will keep the threat of coastal hazards and locally heavy rain in
the forecast along the Atlantic Coast of Florida. In particular, showers
and thunderstorms along the southeast Florida coastline may remain
somewhat stationary due to weak flow aloft, while also containing intense
rainfall rates. As a result, a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of Excessive
Rainfall remains in place for this area today and Sunday in order to bring
continued awareness to the threat of localized flash flooding.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Oct 11 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 11 2024 – 12Z Sun Oct 13 2024

…Record-breaking heat forecast across parts of the Southwest and
south-central United States…

…Developing storm system to bring unsettled weather to the Ohio Valley,
Great Lakes, and Northeast this weekend…

…Locally heavy rain possible over southeast Florida…

Predominant upper-level ridging stretching from the Southwest to the
southern High Plains will allow for another day of record-breaking heat
across parts of Nevada and Arizona today. High temperatures are forecast
to reach into the upper 90s and triple digits, with temperatures only
expected to be a few degrees cooler this weekend. Meanwhile, heat is
anticipated to expand across the south-central U.S. by Saturday as highs
into the mid-90s engulf the southern Plains. Well above average
temperatures should span into the central Plains and mid-Mississippi
Valley as well, with numerous daily record high temperatures possible.
Cooler and more fall-like temperatures will be found across the East
today, with areas of frost likely from the central Appalachians to the
Northeast early this morning.

The next autumn cold front to impact the Nation is forecast to cross the
Great Lakes and Northeast by Saturday before stalling over the
Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. An area of low pressure developing along this
frontal boundary is expected to deepen and move eastward over the Ohio
Valley and Lower Great Lakes. Areas of showers and thunderstorms
surrounding the system may dampen outdoor activities, with a few isolated
strong thunderstorms possible between eastern Kentucky and West Virginia.

Following in the wake of Hurricane Milton, strong northeasterly flow aided
by a high pressure system over the southern Appalachians will provide the
potential for continued coastal hazards as well as locally heavy rain
along the Atlantic Coast of Florida. Developing thunderstorms along the
southeast Florida coastline in particular may remain somewhat stationary
due to opposing flow aloft, while also containing intense rainfall rates.
A Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of Excessive Rainfall has been issued for this
region on Saturday and Sunday in order to highlight the threat of
localized flash flooding.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Oct 10 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 10 2024 – 12Z Sat Oct 12 2024

…Impacts from Milton will wind down through early Thursday as the
Hurricane departs the Florida Peninsula and moves into the open Atlantic…

…Unseasonably very warm temperatures continue over much of the western
and central U.S., some record-tying/breaking highs will be possible…

…Most of the country will see dry conditions through Friday…

Impacts related to Hurricane Milton will be winding down early Thursday as
the storm continues to weaken and departs the Florida Peninsula into the
open Atlantic. Water levels from ongoing flooding and storm surge will
remain elevated and dangerous until the water has receded. As attention
turns to recover efforts, be aware of areas that remain flooded and do not
drive through flooded roadways. Some gusty winds may linger for Florida
and along the southeast Atlantic Coast. More isolated thunderstorms will
remain possible for central and south Florida through early Friday
morning.

Otherwise, the rest of the country will be mostly dry. Some isolated light
showers are possible in the Upper Great Lakes and interior Northeast on
Thursday, with some more moderate rainfall along coastal northern
California as a Pacific system approaches the area on Friday. The main
story will be continued very warm, well above average temperatures for
western and central portions of the country as a broad upper-level ridge
remains in place. Some of the greatest anomalies will be over the northern
Plains/Upper Midwest Thursday as highs soar into the mid-80s, upwards of
20-25 degrees above average. While temperatures have returned to less
dangerously hot levels compared to this past weekend, the Desert Southwest
still remains abnormally hot, with highs into the 100s. Elsewhere, highs
will be in the 80s in the Great Basin and lower elevations of the
central/southern Rockies, the mid- to upper 80s in the central Plains, and
into the mid-90s in Texas. Some record-tying/breaking highs will be
possible, especially in the Desert Southwest. A cold front moving through
the northern Rockies into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will bring
cooler, more seasonable temperatures to in the 60s to these areas on
Friday. In contrast, much of the East Coast will be more seasonable and
even cool for northern locations. Forecast highs for the interior
Northeast and New England will only be in the 50s on Thursday, with 60s in
the Mid-Atlantic and 60s and 70s into the Southeast. Morning lows dipping
into the 30s for areas in the interior Northeast and within the
Appalachians could lead to some patchy frost Friday morning. Most of the
interior Northeast will see warmer temperatures Friday as highs climb back
into the 60s.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Oct 09 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 09 2024 – 12Z Fri Oct 11 2024

…Major Hurricane Milton is expected to make landfall along the
west-central coast of Florida overnight Wednesday…

…Milton will bring life-threatening impacts to much of Florida including
a destructive storm surge, devastating hurricane-force winds, and
catastrophic flash and urban flooding…

…Unseasonably warm temperatures continue over much of the western and
central U.S., some record-tying/breaking highs will be possible…

Major Hurricane Milton continues to churn across the Gulf of Mexico early
Wednesday morning and is forecast to move northeastward and make landfall
along the west coast of Florida late Wednesday/early Thursday. Expected
impacts include a large area of destructive storm surge, with highest
inundations of 10 feet or greater, and devastating hurricane-force winds
along portions of the west-central coast of Florida. Milton is expected to
remain a hurricane while it crosses the peninsula bringing these
life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, inland.
Preparations to protect life and property, including being ready for
long-duration power outages, should be rushed to completion as winds and
rain will begin to pick up rapidly through the day Wednesday as the storm
approaches. In addition, there is a High Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level
4/4) Wednesday through at least mid-day Thursday across central and
northern portions of the peninsula. Extremely heavy rainfall totals
between 6 to 12 inches, locally up to 18 inches, will bring the risk of
catastrophic flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river
flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to
increase the overall flood threat. While Hurricane Milton is expected to
experience some weakening prior to landfall, the forecast for these
life-threatening impacts already takes this into account. Several
tornadoes will be possible as bands of thunderstorms move across the
central and southern Peninsula. The Storm Prediction Center has
highlighted portions of the central Peninsula in an Enhanced Risk (level
3/5) for the possibility of a strong tornado or two. Impacts from the
Hurricane will extend to the northeast along the southeastern Atlantic
Coast Thursday with life-threatening storm surge and gusty winds forecast.
Some rain will be possible, though the current forecast keeps the heaviest
rain off the coast over the Atlantic.

The rest of the country will be mostly quiet precipitation-wise other than
some showers for the interior Northeast/New England and the Pacific
Northwest Wednesday. The main story continues to be unseasonably warm
temperatures over much of the central and western U.S. under the presence
of upper-level ridging. Forecast highs are 10-20 degrees above average for
many locations, particularly over the northern Plains. Most will see highs
in the 80s across the Great Basin, Rockies, and northern/central Plains.
Even hotter temperatures into the low to mid-90s are expected for Texas
and interior central/southern California, with 100s in the Desert
Southwest. A few daily record-tying/breaking highs are possible,
particularly in the Desert Southwest. A cold front will bring cooler, more
seasonable temperatures in the 60s and low 70s to the northern Great
Basin/Rockies/High Plains on Thursday. In contrast, much of the eastern
U.S. will be more seasonable for Fall, and even a bit cool along the
northern tier. Forecast highs range in the 50s in the Upper Great
Lakes/Interior Northeast, the 60s and 70s for the Mid-Atlantic/Ohio
Valley, and the 70s and 80s in the South. Some patchy morning frost will
be possible for areas of the Upper Great Lakes/New England.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Oct 07 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 07 2024 – 12Z Wed Oct 09 2024

…Hurricane Milton continues to intensify over the southwest Gulf of
Mexico and is expected to move northeastward towards the Florida Peninsula
by the middle of the week…

…Very heavy rainfall well ahead of Hurricane Milton brings the threat of
flash flooding to the central/southern Florida Peninsula and Keys…

…Record-breaking heat continues early this week for California and the
Desert Southwest, with much above average temperatures also expected for
the Intermountain West and Plains…

Hurricane Milton continues to intensify over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico and is currently forecast by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to
move northeastward and make landfall along the central Florida Gulf Coast
on Wednesday. However, potentially significant flash flooding impacts are
expected to continue well ahead of the storm as anomalously moist tropical
air and instability increase along a wavy frontal boundary draped across
the southern Florida Peninsula. Separate waves of low pressure along this
front will favor areas of very heavy to potentially extreme rainfall in a
concentrated fashion across portions of South Florida Tuesday, with a
Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 3/4) in effect. This will bring
the potential for numerous instances of urban flash flooding. A broader
Slight Risk covers the central Atlantic Florida Coast as well as the
southwestern Gulf Coast for more scattered instances of flash flooding. A
Slight Risk is also in place on Tuesday as one wave departs and ahead of
the approach of Hurricane Milton, as locally very heavy rainfall and some
scattered instances of flash flooding will remain possible. Please consult
the latest NHC public advisories for updated information on the expected
track and impacts from Hurricane Milton as it approaches the Florida Gulf
Coast mid-week, including life-threatening storm surge, damaging winds,
and a continued threat of very heavy rainfall and widespread flash
flooding.

Meanwhile, a record-breaking late-season heat wave continues early this
week across areas of central and southern California and the Desert
Southwest as a ridge of high pressure aloft persists over the region.
Forecast highs Monday will once again soar into the upper 90s to low 100s
outside of the immediate coastal areas of central and southern California,
with high temperatures reaching as high as the low 110s for the interior
portions of the Desert Southwest. Heat-related advisories and warnings are
in place as this persistent level of major to extreme heat remains a
danger to anyone without adequate air-conditioning or hydration, and for
those spending greater time outdoors. Numerous daily record-tying or
record-breaking high temperatures are expected to occur across the region.
The one reprieve is that temperatures are expected to slowly drop through
the week beginning on Tuesday, with highs a few degrees lower and less
heat-related impacts expected. A few daily record-tying/breaking highs
still remain possible in the Desert Southwest though. While not quite as
hot, highs are also trending well above average for most of the rest of
the Intermountain West, with highs in the 70s and low 80s for the northern
Great Basin/Rockies and into the mid-80s for the central Great Basin.
These very warm temperatures will also spread east out into the
northern/central Plains as the ridge of high pressure shifts eastward this
week. Forecast highs the next couple of days are in the 70s to low 80s for
the northern Plains and into the mid-80s for the central Plains. Forecast
highs have continued to remain unseasonably warm for the Southern
Plains/Texas, with mid-80s to mid-90s expected.

Elsewhere, a cold front moving through New England will bring showers and
thunderstorms Monday, with a few storms lingering into Tuesday for
Downeast Maine. Forecast highs will be more seasonable for much of the
Midwest/Great Lakes into the Northeast following the cold front passage,
with highs in the 60s to low 70s. The South will be dry and a bit hot on
Monday ahead of the cold front, with highs generally in the mid- to upper
80s. Temperatures will drop to more seasonable levels on Tuesday here as
well after the cold front passes through, with highs in the 70s to low
80s. A system entering the Pacific Northwest will bring rain chances
Tuesday.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Sun Oct 06 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 06 2024 – 12Z Tue Oct 08 2024

…Tropical Storm Milton continues to intensify over the southwest Gulf of
Mexico and is expected to move northeastward towards the Florida Gulf
Coast…

…Very heavy rainfall well ahead of Tropical Storm Milton will arrive
across the Florida Peninsula and Keys bringing the threat of flash
flooding…

…Showers and thunderstorms expected for portions of the interior
Northeast Sunday with the threat for some large hail and damaging winds…

…Record-breaking heat will continue across California and the Southwest
through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week…

Tropical Storm Milton continues to intensify in the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico and is currently forecast by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to
move northeastward towards the Gulf Coast of Florida, with a possible
landfall on Wednesday. However, potentially significant flooding impacts
are expected well ahead of the storm as anomalously moist tropical air and
instability increase south of a wavy frontal boundary draped across the
Florida Peninsula. There is now a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall
(level 3/4) Sunday over South Florida for a more concentrated corridor of
thunderstorms producing intense downpours with totals that could exceed
5″. This will bring a more significant risk of scattered to numerous
instances of flash flooding in urban areas. A Slight Risk (level 2/4)
extends north along the Atlantic Coast and also west along the Gulf Coast
through the central Peninsula for additional scattered instances of flash
flooding. Another Slight Risk on Monday covers the Atlantic Coast of the
central Peninsula as well as the southwestern Gulf Coast and South Florida
as the threat for thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall and flash
flooding continues. Follow the latest forecast from the NHC for updated
information on the expected track and potential impacts mid-week.

An upper-level wave/surface frontal system will pass through areas of the
interior Northeast including the Appalachians, Lower Great Lakes, and the
Upper Ohio Valley Sunday bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Sufficient instability ahead of the front as well as strong flow at the
low and mid-levels may lead to some more robust, severe thunderstorms. The
Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has highlighted western New York and
Pennsylvania as well as eastern Ohio and the northern Panhandle of West
Virginia with a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather mainly for the
threat of large hail and damaging winds. The SPC has also noted that gusty
winds and dry conditions behind a trailing cold front extending to the
southwest through the Midwest and into the central Plains will lead to an
Elevated Risk of fire weather. As the system continues eastward, showers
and thunderstorms will spread into the northern Mid-Atlantic late
Sunday/early Monday and into New England during the day Monday. Most of
the rest of the country will be without precipitation chances the next
couple of days expect the Pacific Northwest where rain chances will pick
up by later Monday ahead of a Pacific system.

A record-breaking late-season heat wave continues this weekend and into
early next week across central and southern California and the Desert
Southwest as a ridge of high pressure aloft persists over the region.
Forecast highs continue to soar into the upper 90s to low 100s outside of
the immediate coastal areas of central and southern California, with high
temperatures reaching as high as the low 110s for the interior portions of
the Desert Southwest. Numerous daily record-tying or record-breaking high
temperatures are expected to occur across the region going through Monday.
Heat-related advisories and warnings are in place as this persistent level
of major to extreme heat remains a danger to anyone without adequate
air-conditioning or hydration, and for those spending greater time
outdoors. While not quite as hot, highs will trend above average again for
most of the rest of the Intermountain West as well, with highs in the 70s
and low 80s for the northern Great Basin/Rockies and into the mid-80s for
the central Great Basin. These very warm temperatures will also spread
east out into the northern/central Plains early next week. In fact, by
Monday and Tuesday, some areas of the northern Plains are expected to see
high temperatures upwards of 20 degrees above average, reaching as high as
the upper 70s and low 80s. Much of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and
Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley will see unseasonably warm temperatures
well into the 80s on Sunday. A cold front passage will bring much cooler,
more seasonable temperatures to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Monday as
highs only top out in the 60s, with 70s into the Tennessee Valley and
Mid-South. Further south, hot temperatures will also continue for portions
of the southern Plains and Texas, with daily highs remaining in the upper
80s to mid-90s.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Oct 05 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 05 2024 – 12Z Mon Oct 07 2024

…Record-breaking heat remains across California and the Southwest
through this weekend, while briefly overspreading portions of the Plains
and Midwest on Saturday…

…Strong winds and dangerous fire weather conditions are forecast from
the northern/central Rockies into the Plains on Saturday…

…Locally heavy rainfall will be possible across the immediate Gulf Coast
through Saturday, with more of a focus toward the Florida Peninsula by
late Sunday…

A record-breaking late-season heat wave continues over portions of
central/southern California and the Desert Southwest this weekend as
upper-level ridging persists over the region. Forecast highs will once
again soar into the upper 90s to low 100s outside of immediate coastal
areas in central/southern California and into the 100s to low 110s into
the Desert Southwest. Numerous daily record-tying/breaking highs will
likely be reached again following days of new record daily temperatures.
Heat-related advisories and warnings are in place as this persistent level
of major to extreme heat remains a danger to anyone without adequate
air-conditioning/hydration and those spending greater time outdoors. After
a brief period of more seasonable temperatures to the north following a
cold frontal passage, highs will trend above average again for most of the
rest of the Interior West by Sunday, with 70s into the northern Great
Basin/Rockies and 80s for the central Great Basin. Further to the east
over the central U.S., a brief period of upper-level ridging and strong
southerly flow ahead of an approaching system will bring some hotter high
temperatures to portions of the Midwest and Central Plains on Saturday.
Forecast highs into the low to mid-90s are upwards of 20 degrees above
average, and some record-tying/breaking temperatures possible here as
well. An approaching cold front will bring cooler, more seasonable air on
Sunday with highs back down into the 70s. The Southern Plains will remain
hot and above average south of the front through the weekend with upper
80s and low 90s forecast.

As noted, an upper-level wave will move quickly along the northern-tier of
the country this weekend with an accompanying surface frontal system. Lee
cyclogenesis east of the Rockies has led to a rapidly deepening area of
low pressure just north of the U.S./Canadian border, with a tightening
pressure gradient leading to widespread very strong, gusty winds across
the northern/central Rockies and into the northern/central Plains.
Wind-related advisories and warnings are in place for gusts upwards of
60-70 mph through Saturday. In addition, very dry conditions combined with
the gusty winds with cold frontal passage will also bring a significant
risk of wildfires. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted areas from
northern Colorado/southern Wyoming into central Nebraska and southern
South Dakota with a Critical Risk of fire weather (level 2/3). Widespread
Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches cover much of the rest of the
region due to wildfire risk. Greater moisture further east will lead to
some showers and storms ahead of the frontal system over the Upper Great
Lakes by Saturday afternoon. Some moderate rainfall will be possible, and
strong dynamic forcing with the system could lead to some more potent
thunderstorms. A Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2/5) has been
introduced from the Storm Prediction Center in northeastern Wisconsin
mainly for the threat of some large hail. The system will continue into
the Northeast Sunday afternoon/evening with more showers and thunderstorms
expected.

An area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and
increasing Gulf moisture will lead to periods of thunderstorms producing
locally heavy rainfall along the immediate Gulf Coast and eastward along a
surface trough/weak frontal boundary across the Florida Peninsula this
weekend. While storms may be generally ill-focused for any potential
flooding threat, a couple areas will see a low but non-zero risk. More
concentrated storms along a coastal trough nearby the far south Texas Gulf
Coast could lead to some isolated flash flooding on Saturday. Another
focus will be along and ahead of the weak frontal boundary through the
central Florida Peninsula on Sunday, with some isolated flash flooding
possible along the Florida Gulf Coast and South Florida. The National
Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor this area of low pressure for
potential tropical development, though if something were to develop this
remains more likely after the current forecast period into next week.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Oct 04 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 04 2024 – 12Z Sun Oct 06 2024

…Record-breaking heat remains across California and the Southwest
through this weekend, while also building into the central United States
on Saturday…

…Strong winds and dangerous fire weather concerns forecast throughout
the northern Great Basin, northern Rockies, and into the northern/central
Plains…

…Locally heavy rain possible across the immediate Gulf Coast as
unsettled weather develops in the Gulf of Mexico…

A Fall heatwave will continue into the weekend over portions of the Desert
Southwest and central/southern California as a persistent trend of
upper-ridging over the region remains in place. Numerous
record-tying/breaking highs are forecast as temperatures soar once again
into the upper 90s to 100s. Heat-related advisories/warnings are in place
as the heat remains at levels dangerous to anyone without adequate cooling
or hydration. While not quite as hot, temperatures will still be
well-above average Friday elsewhere across the Interior West, with highs
well into the 80s for many locations across the northern/central Rockies
and Great Basin. A cold front will bring cooler, more Fall-like
temperatures to the northern Great Basin/Rockies on Saturday. Higher
heights will also expand eastward over the central United States on
Saturday helping to spread much above average temperatures into portions
of the central/southern Plains and Upper Midwest. Forecast highs in the
80s to low 90s in the Upper Midwest and as high as the mid-90s in the
central Plains are upwards of 20 degrees above average, with
record-tying/breaking highs possible here as well.

A fast-moving upper-level wave/accompanying surface frontal system will
pass along the northern tier of the West and into the central U.S. over
the next couple of days. Some moderate to locally heavy rainfall will be
possible over the Pacific Northwest on Friday, with some lighter showers
into the northern Rockies. Additional showers/storms will accompany the
system as it reaches the Upper Great Lakes later Saturday and into the
early morning hours Sunday. However, the bigger story will be widespread
gusty winds and high fire danger with the fast moving system as it passes
through the northern Great Basin/Rockies Friday and into the northern High
Plains Saturday. Wind-related watches and warnings have been issued as
gusts higher than 60 mph can be expected, leading to risk of blowing
debris, potential property damage, and isolated power outages, as well as
difficult travel conditions especially for high-profile vehicles. In
addition, the gusty winds and very dry conditions ahead of the approaching
cold front with the system will bring an increased threat for wildfires.
The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Critical Risk (level 2/3) of
Fire Weather over portions of the northern Great Basin and central/eastern
Wyoming Friday, and the central Rockies into the central Plains on
Saturday. Much of the rest of the region is under Red Flag Warnings and
Fire Weather Watches.

Enhanced tropical moisture along the Gulf Coast will lead to periods of
moderate to locally heavy showers for the next few days. The lack of a
focusing system/boundary and scattered nature of the storms currently
suggests a low risk for flash flooding, but an isolated instance or two of
flash flooding cannot be ruled out. Elsewhere, some light to moderate
showers can be expected with a cold frontal passage through the Northeast
late Friday/early Saturday. High temperatures will generally be at to a
bit above average for the eastern U.S., with widespread 70s to the north
and 80s in the South.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Oct 03 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 03 2024 – 12Z Sat Oct 05 2024

…Showers and thunderstorms return to the Gulf Coast from Thursday
evening into Saturday…

…Rain develops over the Pacific Northwest and scattered showers over
parts of the Midwest, Central/Southern Appalachians, and Northeast…

…There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of
Southern California and the Southwest…

On Thursday, tropical moisture will start to build over the
Central/Eastern Gulf Coast and Florida. Upper-level energy over the
Western Gulf Coast and Northern Gulf of Mexico will move into parts of the
Southeast and Central Gulf Coast, producing showers and thunderstorms over
parts of the Gulf Coast from Thursday evening into Saturday. In addition,
showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of Florida through
Saturday. Furthermore, the moisture will also build over the
Central/Southern Appalachians, as upper-level energy moves over the area,
showers and thunderstorms will develop from Thursday afternoon into Friday
evening.

Meanwhile, a front extending from the Upper Great Lakes to parts of the
Central Plains will move eastward to just off the Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic Coast by Saturday. The boundary will produce rain with
embedded thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley on
Friday morning into the early afternoon. As the front moves into the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, showers and thunderstorms will develop over
parts of the region late Friday evening into Saturday.

In addition, on Friday morning, a second front will move onshore over the
Pacific Northwest, moving to the Northern Plains by Saturday. The system
will produce rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest from Friday into
late Friday evening. Overnight Friday, wet snow will develop over the
highest elevations of the Cascades. The rain will expand into the Northern
Intermountain Region Friday evening into Saturday.

Moreover, the upper-level ridge over the Four Corners Region will create
high temperatures over Southern California and the Southwest, ranging from
the upper 90s to 110s. Low temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low
90s, providing little relief from the heat overnight. The temperatures
have prompted Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of
Southern California and the Southwest.

Record-breaking heat is expected across portions of the Southwest this
week. Moderate to major heat impacts are possible in areas near San
Francisco, Las Vegas, and Los Angeles. Extreme Heat Risk impacts are
forecast for parts of the Southwest. Remember, Heat is the Deadliest
Weather Phenomenon in the U.S.! People spending more time outdoors or in a
building without cooling are at an increased risk of heat-related illness.
Visit www.weather.gov/safety/heat and check local media and government
websites for information on cooling centers.