...Heavy snow in parts of southeastern New Mexico and West Texas through tonight... ...Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will continue along the Texas Gulf Coast through tonight... ...Heavy mountain snow possible in the Pacific Northwest and northern Rocky mountains this weekend...
...Rain and mountain snow possible across the Northern/Central Rockies and Northern Plains today... ...Heavy rainfall to spread across parts of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley on Thanksgiving Day... ...Potentially impactful snow could begin as early as Thursday night for parts of the Southern Plains...
During the week, we provide 48-Hour reports which focus on the shorter-term predictions but also have links to all the partial-month outlooks.
Once a week we show many of the actual forecast maps not just provide the links to these maps. This makes it easier for the reader. Our report provides a separate forecast for Days 1 and 2, Days 1-5, Days 6 -10, Days 8 – 14, and weeks 3 and 4. We also include a next-day and 10-Day World Temperature and Precipitation Forecast. This provides information that is useful to readers in terms of planning their activities for the weekend and the next 28 days. Tomorrow and Monday I will update the article with more recent short-term forecasts.
From the Week 3 -4 Discussion:
Over the equatorial Pacific, La Niña conditions persist, with below normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and reduced tropical convection in all Niño regions. In contrast, convection currently exists over the Maritime Continent associated with the emergence of the MJO into RMM phase 5. Both GEFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts depict the propagation of the MJO through phases 5, 6 and 7 (Maritime Continent to the Western Pacific) over the next two weeks. After this time, the ensemble spread indicates a great deal of uncertainty as to either the continued propagation or the decay of the MJO. Regardless, the tropical convection associated with this active MJO during the two weeks leading up to Week 3-4 will produce upper-level divergence that resides in a favorable location to interact with the subtropical jet exiting southeast Asia. This interaction will produce a source for Rossby waves capable of propagating downstream and impacting surface conditions over CONUS/AK during the Week 3-4 period. Statistically, this sort of propagation is associated with troughing over AK and ridging over CONUS at short leads. However, at Week 3-4 leads the pattern typically reverses with ridging over AK and trouging over CONUS, reminiscent of a negative PNA pattern. Further downstream, a negative NAO is typically observed. Thus, a pattern shift that projects onto the negative phases of both the PNA and NAO is favored to occur near the end of Week 2 or beginning of Week 3. Whether this shift actually occurs and its exact timing are uncertain, which leads to overall low confidence probabilities throughout this Week 3-4 forecast.
I have chosen not to try to explain all the factors that go into this forecast. If anyone is interested post a comment and I will reply to it.
When we publish on Friday night, it provides a 28-day view of the future. What is important is that this is a longer-term view than one that is typically available in the media and online.
...Heavy lake effect snow downwind of the Great Lakes... ...Anomalous cold for South and East; Elevated fire risk for Southern California...
...Wintry precipitation will continue in northern New England through this evening as a coastal low tracks northeast... ...Major lake effect snow event downwind of the Great Lakes likely to begin tonight and continue through the weekend... ...Anomalous cold will continue for most of the CONUS through the end of the week... ...Strong Santa Ana winds across southern California will relax tonight...
...Mixed precipitation expected for inland areas in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic this afternoon into Wednesday morning... ...Heavy Lake Effect Snow in the Great Lakes region Wednesday and Thursday, especially downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario... ...Strong Santa Ana winds return today across Southern California... ...Anomalous cold will continue for most of the CONUS through the end of the week...
...Lake-effect snow downwind from the Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday... ...Light snow from the Southern High Plains to the Upper Midwest Monday evening into Tuesday... ...There are Winter Weather Advisories across parts of the Central Plains for Monday...
We provide a daily report which focuses on the shorter-term predictions but also has links to all the partial-month outlooks. Once a week we show many of the actual forecast maps not just provide the links to these maps. This makes it easier for the reader. Our report provides a separate forecast for Days 1 and 2, Days1-5, Days 6 -10, Days 8 – 14, and weeks 3 and 4. This provides information that is useful to readers in terms of planning their activities for the next 28 days.
The key dynamic for CONUS is the High Pressure over Alaska which brings cold air into the U.S. Northwest. We end up with cool and dry over most of CONUS which first moderates and later becomes a mostly warm and dry pattern as a new atmospheric-driven storm moves into the West Coast.
When we publish on Friday night, it provides a 28-day view of the future. What is important is that this is a longer-term view than one that is typically available in the media and online.
We also include a 10-Day World Temperature and Precipitation Forecast.
...Tropical Cyclone NICOLE will slowly weaken and move northward, becoming Post-Tropical by Friday evening... ...Heavy snow is to begin to wind down over the Upper Midwest on Friday... ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast through Saturday morning... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southeast on Thursday, moving to the Northeast on Friday...
...Tropical Cyclone Nicole will continue impacting Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina today, impacts will spread north Friday into the weekend... ...Heavy snow and blizzard conditions possible in the northern High Plains, Great Plains, and Upper Mississippi Valley today into Friday... ...Strong cold front to spread below normal temperatures across most of the nation by the end of the weekend...
