At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is June of 2023. We are reporting on that tonight.
There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for June and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading. We highlighted some of the important statements within the NOAA Discussion. We also provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for June for comparison. From the NOAA Discussion:
- The MJO is expected to provide a favorable large-scale environment for tropical cyclone (TC) development across the East Pacific during early June.
- Typhoon Maway , currently located to the east of Taiwan, is forecast to recurve northeastward over the Northwest Pacific.
- Dynamical models generally depict a persistent, anomalous 500-hPa ridge over the higher latitudes of west-central North America into the latter half of June which supports increased probabilities for above-normal temperatures from the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies east to the Midwest.
- 30-day precipitation deficits range from 2 to 5 inches across the Corn Belt where low topsoil [Editor’s note: probably referring to moisture] is present.
- Positive SST anomalies over the Gulf of Mexico along with forecasted above normal temperatures in week 3-4 tools, tilts the forecast toward above normal across Florida and along the Gulf Coast.
- Increased probabilities for below-normal temperatures are forecast for the Central to Southern High Plains, Southwest, and southern California.
- Below-normal precipitation across the Midwest. This favored dryness extends east to the Central Appalachians
- Wetter-than-normal conditions especially across the interior West, High Plains, and Southern Great Plains where increased probabilities for above-normal precipitation are forecast for the month
- A wet start to the month is likely across the Florida Peninsula.
- The largest change in the revised precipitation outlook was made to Alaska as most recent model guidance has backed off the dry signal initially forecast for southeastern Alaska.
It is probably easier to just look at the maps than digest the above.
The article includes the Drought Outlook for June. NOAA also adjusted the previously issued Seasonal Drought Outlook to reflect the changes in the June Outlook. We have also included the current fire incidents (dramatically decreased) and four months of Wildland Fire Potential Outlooks and also a map showing the current snowpack in the West and the water-year-to-date precipitation. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.
