Transition to El Nino

Here comes El Nino – is that possible?

JAMSTEC is predicting a more rapid demise of La Nina and a rapid onset of El Nino conditions. Thus we should expect their forecast to differ dramatically from the NOAA forecast.  Is it reasonable to predict a rapid change to El Nino? It is certainly possible. But it is not the majority opinion. Certainly, three La Ninas in a row build up the warm water in the IndoPacific Warm Pool. So I am presenting the JAMSTEC forecast as an alternative perspective.

I am going to first show the JAMSTEC forecasts by month and then by season. I will also show two of the indices they use in their model. One of those indices relates to the Indian Ocean Dipole which will also be discussed.