Taking Another Look at the NOAA Seasonal Outlook – What about this Coming Winter? Published on August 19, 2023
On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued their updated Seasonal Outlook which I describe as their Four-Season Outlook because it extends a bit more than one year into the future.
Usually, we pay the most attention to the Mid-Month forecast for the next month which is September, the three-month Outlook for September through November and the Seasonal Drought Outlook.
Tonight I want to focus on the months beyond September through November 2023 In particular I want to focus on the winter months.
| NOAA is showing a warmer than normal Northern Tier and equal chances for the rest of CONUS other than Florida |
| NOAA is showing a dry extreme Northern Tier and a mostly wet Southern Tier and the Southeast. But what about the Colorado River Basin? Pretty much a normal year? What about New Mexico? If the Jet Stream is so far south that there will only be normal precipitation for Northern New Mexico and Colorado? That is not a good scenario for New Mexico. |
