Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 2, 2024
It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Sat Mar 02 2024Valid 12Z Sat Mar 02 2024 – 12Z Mon Mar 04 2024
…Winter storm continues this weekend in the West with heavy mountain
snow, widespread damaging winds, and powerful blizzard conditions in the
Sierra Nevada……Wintry mix for portions of the Northern Plains with some moderate to
locally heavy snow possible……A coastal storm will bring widespread rain up the East Coast through
Saturday……Much above average, Spring-like temperatures expanding from the
Plains/Midwest into the Northeast this weekend with Critical Fire Weather
threat for the central/southern High Plains…A significant winter storm continues to impact much of the West, including
dangerous, blizzard conditions for the Sierra Nevada as an amplifying
upper-level trough forces its way into the western U.S. A multi-day influx
of moisture from the Pacific interacting with colder air pushing southward
from Canada is bringing heavy higher elevation, mountain snows across most
of the ranges of the Pacific Northwest, northern/central California, the
Great Basin, and the northern/central Rockies. There is at least a
moderate chance (40-60% probability) of an additional 12″+ of snowfall
through the end of the weekend. In addition, widespread wind-related
advisories and warnings remain in effect across much of the greater
western U.S. as wind gusts reach upwards of 55 mph, with gusts as high as
75 mph for higher elevations, leading to the risk of downed trees and
power lines. The combination of snow and high winds is most intense in the
Sierra Nevada, where heavy snow rates exceeding 3″ per hour and winds
gusting over 100 mph are causing significant blowing, drifting snow and
whiteout conditions, making travel impossible through the area. The most
intense snow and wind should begin to wind down through the day Sunday.
High temperatures will be below average this weekend with the colder
airmass moving in, with highs in the teens and 20s for the Northern
Rockies; 30s and 40s for the Pacific Northwest, northern California, the
Great Basin, and central Rockies; 50s for central California; and 60s for
southern California. Temperatures will be warmer into the Southwest with
highs in the 70s.Falling heights as the amplifying trough begins to shift eastward over the
northern High Plains will help to deepen/organize a low pressure/frontal
system during the day Saturday. This system is forecast to track east into
the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes Sunday. Limited moisture ahead of the system
will keep precipitation chances rather low. However, in the colder air to
the north/northwest of the system, enough moisture will be in place for a
wintry mix of freezing rain and snow across portions of the Northern
Plains. Some moderate to locally heavy snowfall will be possible along the
Canadian border. Winds will likely also be rather breezy, with the
potential for some blowing snow. To the east, a low pressure/frontal
system lifting up the East Coast will continue to spread showers through
the Mid-Atlantic and into New England Saturday bringing moderate to
locally heavy rainfall, particularly for coastal locations. Some showers
and thunderstorms will remain possible along the frontal boundary
lingering southwestward along the coastal Southeast, Florida, and the
central Gulf Coast. Rain chances will come down overnight Saturday and
into early Sunday as the system pushes eastward away from the coast.Widespread well above average, Spring-like temperatures are forecast to
continue for much of the Plains and Midwest this weekend. The greatest
anomalies will be centered over portions of the central/northern Plains
and Upper Midwest Saturday, spreading into the Great Lakes and Middle
Mississippi/Ohio Valleys on Sunday, where forecast highs reaching well
into the 60s and 70s are upwards of 25-35 degrees above average. Some
highs may tie/break local daily records. Further south, highs will be into
the 70s and 80s for the Southern Plains. Unfortunately, the combination of
these warm temperatures along with gusty winds and dry conditions have
resulted in another Critical Risk of Fire Weather (level 2/3) from the
Storm Prediction Center for portions of the central and southern High
Plains. The warming trend will spread into the Northeast on Sunday
following the departure of the coastal low, with highs warming into the
40s and 50s in New England and the 50s and 60s in the Mid-Atlantic. While
not quite as anomalous, highs across the Southeast into the 60s and 70s
are still running above early March averages.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
In case you missed it, this is the updated forecast for March and how it impacts the three-month Outlook.
Combination of the Updated Outlook for March and the Three-Month Outlook
The top row is the Updated Outlook for the new month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes the new month. I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020. So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term climatology. |