Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 2, 2024
It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu May 02 2024
Valid 12Z Thu May 02 2024 – 12Z Sat May 04 2024…Severe Thunderstorms and Flash Flooding concerns over portions of the
Central/Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley today……Cool and snowy in parts of the Northwest with above average and
potentially record breaking temperatures into the Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic on today…The main area of concern will be across the Central part of the CONUS over
the next couple of days. Shortwave disturbances emerging from the base of
a mid-level trough anchored over the northern tier will generate scattered
to isolated thunderstorms across the Plains and Mississippi Valley today.
Some storms could turn severe, particularly over portions of north-central
Texas, where the Storm Prediction Center issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5)
of Severe Thunderstorms. Thunderstorms over areas that received plenty of
rain recently may cause additional flash flooding concerns, which is why
there’s a targeted Moderate Risk (at least 40%) of Excessive Rainfall over
southeastern Texas. The primary threat of severe weather and excessive
rainfall wanes on Friday as the associated low pressure system and
associated storms move into the Ohio/Tennessee Valley and Lower Great
Lakes regions. A second cold front will sweep through the Great Plains on
Friday, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms to the region.An upper trough stationed over the Northwest will generate below average
temperatures across the northern tier today and Friday. This cool airmass
will support high elevation snow across the western mountains, but
particularly over the Northern Rockies, where 6-12 inches of snow are
expected by Saturday morning. A new low pressure system will emerge over
the Pacific Northwest on Friday night, bringing with it enough moisture
for low elevation rain and mountain snow. An upper level ridge downstream
of approaching shortwave impulses will generate well above average
temperatures from the Ohio Valley to the East Coast today and Friday. Some
areas within these regions may tie or break high temperature records
today. There’s a Moderate Heat Risk over portions of the Mid-Atlantic
today affecting individuals who are sensitive to heat, especially those
without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Temperatures will
cool down a bit heading into the weekend after a cold front pushes through.