JAMSTEC two Season Forecast plus our US-48 Hour Forecast October 29, 2022

October 30, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here comes El Nino – is that possible?

The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, or JAMSTEC, is a Japanese national research institute for marine-earth science and technology

JAMSTEC is predicting a more rapid demise of La Nina and a possible onset of El Nino conditions. Thus we should expect their forecast to differ dramatically from the NOAA forecast.  Is it reasonable to predict a rapid change to El Nino? It is certainly possible. But it is not the majority opinion. Certainly, three La Ninas in a row build up the warm water in the IndoPacific Warm Pool. So I am presenting the JAMSTEC forecast as an alternative perspective.

I should have presented this information when I received it two weeks ago. The JAMSTEC forecasts are based on their model runs of October 1, 2022.

Although it is a World forecast, it includes a forecast for North America since North America is part of the World.

October 28, 2022 Looking Ahead 28 Days Plus our usual 48-hour report.

October 29, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

NOAA updates many of its weather outlooks daily or even more frequently and in many cases issues a discussion with those outlooks. We provide a daily report which focuses on the shorter-term predictions but also has links to all the partial-month outlooks. Because WordPress does not provide the ability to have these maps automatically updated, our daily report shows some of the maps which we update each evening plus the links to the other important weather forecast Maps.

Once a week we show many of the actual forecast maps not just provide the links to these maps. This makes it easier for the reader. Our report provides a separate forecast for Days1-5, Days 6 -10, Days 8 – 14, and weeks 3 and 4. This provides information that is useful to readers in terms of planning their activities for the next 28 days.

The week 3-4 outlook is only updated by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Service once a week on Friday. Thus, when we publish on Friday night, it provides a 28-day view of the future. What is important is that this is a longer-term view than one that is typically available in the media and online.

We also include In Part II of the article the other information from the daily 48-hour forecast article. Importantly, this time of the year, it includes updates on tropical events. In both Parts I and II we also include some worldwide forecasts.

It is important to recognize that the forecasts do not always work out as predicted. But in the article, there are links to obtain updated forecasts If you read this article a few days or more after it is published. And there will be a totally updated version next Friday.

October 27, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical and World Precipitation

October 28, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Severe thunderstorms and isolated flash flooding possible across parts
of the southern Plains tonight and southeast Texas on Friday...

...Approaching frontal boundary to spread rain and high elevation snow
chances throughout the Pacific Northwest...

October 26, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical and World Precipitation

October 27, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Unsettled weather in northern New England will exit the region by
Thursday morning leading to pleasant end of week...

...High-elevation accumulating snow across the Rockies through Thursday
evening as upper-level energy digs southward...

...Showers and thunderstorms in the Southern Plains tomorrow and Friday as
a potent storm system tracks eastward...

October 24, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical and World Precipitation

October 25, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

....There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Lower
Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and Southeast through Wednesday morning...

�There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Western Ohio Valley and Middle /Lower Mississippi Valley through Wednesday
morning...

...Snow for parts of the Cascades and the Northern Rockies...

U.S. Agriculture Report October 24, 2022

October 24, 2022Posted inClimate, economics, weather2 Comments

There are climate webinars held in different parts of the U.S. and at a webinar “North Central U.S. Climate” held on October 20, 2022, one of the presentations was titled Midwest/Great Plains Agricultural Update, October 20, 2022. The presentation was made by Brad Rippey – USDA. Analyst & Drought Monitor Author. Brad is the managing editor of the USDA Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin and is one of the Editors of the Drought Monitor so he is in a unique position to understand the crop situation in the U.S. If I was a little more patient, I might have a recording of his presentation to share with you but I thought that just presenting his slides would be informative.I am not sure how long it takes for the recording of those webinars to get posted.

I am presenting the slides without comments. If you look carefully, I think you will be able to see that the trend in yield increases for key crops has topped out. Is this global warming or a long cycle? It is hard to say but it is very concerning. Some of the current issues were better explained in his comments and the Q&A afterward. But I think readers will get a good grasp of the situation from the slides. I have personal experience with river levels being too high as the Ohio River Company was a client and that was a frequent problem for them. River levels being too low is new to me. So it is not just a water shortage for farms and cities but also the water-based transportation system in the U.S.. For those who do not know it, our inland water transportation system is one of the key natural endowments of the U.S. 

I have often published articles on the USDA Executive Briefings and some of Brad’s slides come from that source but he has access to all sorts of good stuff so I wanted to take advantage of that. He was kind enough to send me a PDF of his presentation so that is what is being presented in this article. 

October 23, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical and World Precipitation

October 24, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

 Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...A robust low pressure system is bringing the first widespread wintry
weather event of the season across the northern and central Rockies into 
the northern High Plains...

...Severe weather is possible tonight over the eastern portion of the
northern to central Plains...

...Another low pressure system will bring a quick round of heavy rain,
strong to severe thunderstorms across the central U.S. Monday and
Tuesday...

October 22, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical and World Precipitation

October 23, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...A robust low pressure system will bring the first widespread wintry
weather event of the season across the Cascades, northern and central
Rockies as well as the northern High Plains through the weekend into
Monday...

...Much colder air will surge across the western U.S. while much above
normal temperatures surge north into the upper Midwest and the Great
Lakes...

...Fire weather risk is critical over parts of the central Plains...

October 21, 2022 Looking Ahead 28 Days Plus our usual 48-hour report.

October 22, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

NOAA updates many of its weather outlooks daily or even more frequently and in many cases issues a discussion with those outlooks. We provide a daily report which focuses on the shorter-term predictions but also has links to all the partial-month outlooks. Because WordPress does not provide the ability to have these maps automatically updated, our daily report shows some of the maps which we update each evening plus the links to the other important weather forecast Maps.

Once a week we show many of the actual forecast maps not just provide the links to these maps. This makes it easier for the reader. Our report provides a separate forecast for Days1-5, Days 6 -10, Days 8 – 14, and weeks 3 and 4. This provides information that is useful to readers in terms of planning their activities for the next 28 days.

The week 3-4 outlook is only updated by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Service once a week on Friday. Thus, when we publish on Friday night, it provides a 28-day view of the future. What is important is that this is a longer-term view than one that is typically available in the media and online.

We also include In Part II of the article the other information from the daily 48-hour forecast article. Importantly, this time of the year, it includes updates on tropical events. In both Parts I and II we also include some worldwide forecasts.

It is important to recognize that the forecasts do not always work out as predicted. But in the article, there are links to obtain updated forecasts If you read this article a few days or more after it is published. And there will be a totally updated version next Friday.